This report presents a framework for analysing the risk of alien taxa under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, and the Alien and Invasive Species Regulations of 2014. While the report was initially designed to meet a specific South Africa need, the risk analysis processes developed can, we believe, be transferred to any specified geographic region. In outlining a series of questions related to a taxon’s likelihood of invasion and the consequences thereof, i.e. the potential impacts, the report provides a structure for collating data relevant to the process of listing taxa as well as a process for developing recommendations that is both mathematically sound, transparent, and that explicitly takes uncertainty into account. The framework is based on collating information according to international standards in biological invasions (specifically the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa Scheme, the CBD's scheme for classifying invasion pathways, and the Unified Framework for Biological Invasions proposed by Blackburn et al. 2011). The risk analysis framework is currently being implemented in South Africa in an effort to underpin national regulatory lists of invasive species.

The number of green buildings has increased to address the global environmental crisis. However, green buildings face risks resulting from new materials and methods. In addition, these buildings are expected to perform at higher levels than traditional ones. The objectives of this study are to identify the possible risk factors for architects developing green building projects in South Korea and to assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, fourteen risk factors and twelve mitigation measures were identified from a comprehensive literature review. A questionnaire survey was administered to architects practicing green building design. Findings revealed the ‘adoption of new technology and processes’ was the largest difference between green and traditional building projects. This study identified ‘financial risk,’ ‘design changes,’ and ‘client’s goal uncertainty’ as the top three risk factors in green building design. Additionally, the survey proposed the four most effective risk mitigation measures for green building projects: (1) ‘contract indicating each party’s roles, liabilities and limitations clearly’; (2) ‘utilizing integrated design process’; (3) ‘understanding client’s goal in green building projects’; and (4) ‘improving communication and coordination among stakeholders.’ There are a few studies focusing on the architects’ perceived risk concerning green building projects; however, this study expands the knowledge and fills the literature gap. Additionally, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of critical risks and mitigation measures that can benefit South Korea’s green building design practice through better risk management.

Flash flood is one of the most significant natural disasters in China, particularly in mountainous area, causing heavy economic damage and casualties of life. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient flash flood management. There are more than 530,000 small watersheds in 2058 counties in China where flash flood should be prevented. In practice, with limited fund and different risk levels, the priorities of each small watershed for flash flood prevention and control are also needed for an efficient flash flood management. This paper, take Licheng county in China as an example, aims to give out these priorities for management. First, sensitive indexes are identified among index system, which includes 9 indexes based on underlying surface characteristics of small watershed in hilly region. Second, the range of each index and the rank division of each index for evaluation are determined. Based on the rank divisions for evaluation, the flash flood risk grade eigenvalue (H) is calculated by Variable Fuzzy Method (VFM ) using 1000 samplings generated by Latin hypercube sampling method. Third, the key sensitivity factors that affect flash flood risk grade eigenvalue (H) are assessed by two different global sensitivity analysis methods -- stepwise regression analysis and mutual entropy. Both results indicate that watershed slope (S) is the most sensitive factor; the second is antecedent precipitation index (CN); while other factors are slightly different sensitive in sequence. This study shows that stepwise regression analysis and mutual information analysis are appropriate for the sensitivity analysis of mountain flash flood risk. Finally, based on watershed slope (S), the priorities of flash flood prevention and control of 119 small watersheds in Licheng county are given out.

Published in July 2018, TAILORx aimed to establish non-inferiority of endocrine therapy (ET) compared to addition of chemotherapy (CHT-ET) in hormone receptor positive, human epidermal receptor 2 negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer (BC) patients with a 21-gene intermediate (11-25) recurrence score (RS). While this hypothesis proved correct, the study did show benefit of addition of chemotherapy (CHT) in a subgroup of women under 50 years of age, and particularly in the RS 16-25. The aim of this present study was to look at how TAILORx findings, including changes in RS categories, impacted CHT implementation at one oncologic center in Basel, Switzerland, and to identify main factors leading to these changes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study on HR+/HER2-, BC patients who underwent 21-gene genomic testing between 2010-2021, at our center. Patients with metastatic disease were not included. We identified 326 eligible patients, of which 165 had a BC diagnosis before TAILORx (cohort A) and 161 after TAILORx publication (cohort B). Results: Demographic and tumor characteristics were similar in the two cohorts, although cohort B included significantly more women under the age of 50 when compared to A (34% vs. 24%, p<0.001). Median age and mean RS results were comparable 59 (IQR 16) in A and 58 (IQR 19) years in B and 17.72 (SD9.59) in A and 17.89 (SD9.53) in B, respectively. Patients in cohort A were slightly more overweight when compared to B (55% vs. 40% respectively, p<0.001). Most patients had stage II tumors of NST histologic type. Tumors in cohort B had higher Ki-67 than cohort A (39% vs. 32%, p=0.010). When compared based on manufacturer’s and based on TAILORx thresholds there were no significant differences in RS distribution. However, changes in score category led to shifts in patient population distribution, leading to a 40% drop in the low RS (from 60% to 20%), a doubling in the intermediate RS (from 30% to 60%) and an increase of 5% in the high RS (from 8-10% to 15%). Most patients had conservative surgery, adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) and ET. Overall CHT recommendation and application did not differ significantly in B vs. A. There was a reduction of 1% in the intermediate RS (11-25) and an increase of 13% CHT-ET application in the high RS (>26) category. In cohort B we noticed an increase in CHT-ET application among women <50 years old (by 12.5%), in lobular carcinomas (by 10%), grade 3 tumors (by 2%), node positive BC (by 3%) and node negative (by 2%). Tumor board recommendation for CHT dropped by 1% in the post TAILORx era, with a notable reduction of 5% in the intermediate RS (11-25) category. However, overall CHT administration rate was 19% in cohort A and 22% in B (p=0.763). Tumor Board recommended CHT for 90% of the BC patients that would have otherwise been assigned to CHT according to new RS guidelines in A and for 85% in B, showing a trend for undertreatment. Logistic regression analysis showed significance of age in both cohort A (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.11, p=0.03) and cohort B (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.94), p<0.001), and of nodal status in both cohort A (=R 3.32 95% CI 1.09-10-06, p=0.034) and cohort B (OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.29-8.53, p=0.013), while intermediate and high RS seem to be more relevant in cohort A (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.03-0.43, p=0.01 and OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.21, p<0.01). Overall logistic regression analysis showed relevance of age (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.08-0.97, p=0.001), pN (OR 4.77, 95% CI 2.03-11.22, p<0.001) and RS categories (RS 11-25: OR 0.02, 95% CI 0.01-0.07, p<0.001; RS>26: OR 617.93, 95% CI 57.97-6587.16, p<0.001). Conclusion: Our findings are similar to those reported across several studies: while tumor board recommendation for CHT decreases in the intermediate RS category, there is an increase being reported in the high RS category, leading to overall minor changes in CHT application. Administration of CHT-ET seems to be increasing among younger women, with unfavorable histo-pathological factors, such as lobular carcinoma and G3 histologic grade. Before TAILORx there is a tendency for undertreatment (-10%), especially among older BC patients, which seems to be maintained and even deepened (-15%) in the post TAILORx era, pointing to a personalized decision-making approach among Swiss oncologists.

Nowadays, environmental circumstances and business rules of organizations are complicate, active and uncertain, so, they cannot assurance their long- term survival through some actions such as, structural changes and methods or relying on creativity of some people in organization. Companies and organizations should prepare conditions to institutionalize entrepreneurial culture in their organization. Corporate entrepreneurship can improve the value of the organization. The entrepreneurial oriented organizations are more responsive for environment and market changes. Opportunity recognition is the base of being successful. The research is applied and in terms of method is descriptive. Data were analyzed, using Linear Regression and Multiple Moderated Regression (MMR) and SPSS software. In this research the effects of organizational entrepreneurship (innovation, proactiveness and risk-taking) on performance of the centers influenced by environmental factors (government’s strategies, competitiveness and technology) as moderating variables, were studied. Furthermore, the study presents that there is a significant positive relationship between organizational entrepreneurship and performance. Although the study does not show any significant moderating effect of environmental factors (Government’s strategies, competitiveness and technology) on the relationship between organizational entrepreneurship and performance, however, the result of the study manifests direct relationship between environmental factors and performance of such centers.

In this paper we present an understanding of cyber risks in the Internet of Things (IoT), we explain why it is important to understand what IoT cyber risks are and how we can use risk assessment and risk management approaches to deal with these challenges. We introduce the most effective ways of doing Risk assessment and Risk Management of IoT risk. As part of our research, we also developed methodologies to assess and manage risk in this emerging environment. This paper will take you through our research and we will explain: what we mean by the IoT; what we mean by risk and risk in the IoT; why risk assessment and risk management are important; the IoT risk management for incident response and recovery; what open questions on IoT risk assessment and risk management remain.

We aimed to compare prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) following percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (PRFA) with or without chemolipiodolization (CL) for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using propensity score-matched analysis. We enrolled 221 patients with early-stage HCC who received PRFA with (n = 76) or without (n = 145) CL in Saga Central Hospital between April 2004 and December 2020. No significant difference was observed in OS between PRFA with and without CL cohorts (median survival time [MST]: 5.4 vs. 4.5 years; p = 0.0806). To reduce confounding effects, 108 patients were selected using propensity score-matched analysis (n = 54 for each treatment). No significant difference was observed in OS between the cohorts (MST: 3.6 vs. 4.0 years; p = 0.5474). After stratification according to tumor size, no significant difference was observed in OS for patients with tumor size ≥20 mm between PRFA with and without CL cohorts (MST: 3.4 vs. 3.5 years; p = 0.8236). PRFA with CL was not a significant prognostic factor in both univariate and multivariate analyses (p = 0.5477 and 0.9600, respectively). Our findings suggest that PRFA with CL does not demonstrate longer prognostic effects than PRFA without CL in early-stage HCC, regardless of tumor size.

Background Dietary guidelines typically recommend limiting the intake of fresh red meat, yet evidence linking red meat consumption with adverse health outcomes is inconsistent. Objective To assess the level of evidence from existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses and analyze the association between high consumption of red meat and cancer risk and adverse health outcomes. Methods Eight databases were searched to collect systematic reviews and meta-analyses from database inception to December 2022. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted data and used the AMSTAR 2 tool to evaluate methodological quality of the included studies. Meta-analysis was conducted using STATA 17.0. Results A total of 18 studies were included, of which 5 were rated as high quality, 4 as medium quality, 6 as low quality, and 3 as extremely low quality. Of the 9 SRs/MAs included, primary studies with overlap were identified, and 14 studies were eventually included. The meta-analysis results showed that compared with the lowest intake of red meat, the highest intake of red meat was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.07-1.37), gastric cancer (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.18-1.59), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (OR 1.10.95% CI 1.02-1.19), stroke (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20), type 2 diabetes (RR 1.19 95% CI 1.04-1.37), and ischemic heart disease (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.06-1.12), as well as a negative effect on total cholesterol (WMD 0.264, 95% CI 0.144-0.383), triglycerides (WMD -0.181, 95% CI -0.349 to -0.013), low-density lipoprotein (WMD 0.198, 95% CI 0.065-0.330), and high-density lipoprotein (WMD -0.065, 95% CI -0.109 to -0.020). However, the associations with breast cancer (RR 1.05 95% CI 1.00-1.11), glycemic control (WMD 0.040, 95% CI 0.049-0.129), and changes in body weight status [overweight (β 0.89, 95% CI 0.48-1.64); obesity (β 1.06, 95% CI 0.30-3.71)] were not significant. Conclusions This comprehensive umbrella review suggests that high consumption of red meat may increase the risk of colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, and that reducing red meat intake is a key modifiable dietary factor for reducing risk. However, there was no significant correlation with breast cancer, kidney stones, age-related eye disease or changes in body weight.

Background This study aimed to identify the prominent risk factors that may trigger danger signals of early onset of vascular deregulation in T1D. The risk factors we have identified may serve as dual-purpose biomarkers of rapid diagnosis that offer prospective tailor-made resolution therapeutics. Methods The healthy control (HC) was compared with individuals diagnosed with T1D for the risk factors of vascular deregulation in published research studies from year 2013 to 2023. The PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar databases were searched from 1/1/2013 to 1/9/2023. The risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane (ROBINS-I ) tool, which is relevant to clinical subjects. A random effect model for continuous data was followed and analysed by RevMan 5.4 and GraphPad Prism software. Results 80 relevant case-control studies having 5293 HC and 7492 T1D patients were included. The age and sex-matched HC consisted of persons free of disease and not under any medication while clinical subjects of all age groups were included. 28 risk factors were grouped into six primary outcome models, all of which favoured the T1D synonymous with a high risk of CVD. Conclusions Our findings have strong implications for improving the quality of life and health economics related to vascular disease in T1D. HbA1c% is the most effective biomarker, followed by FBG, LDL-C, and AI% which the clinicians could evaluate using a simple blood test or non-invasive techniques. (Protocol registered at https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ CRD42022384636).

Understanding the vulnerability of areas and the likelihood of specific disasters, particularly earthquakes, is one of the most important issues in Iran. One of the major concerns in Iran is the resilience of rural communities. The present study is devoted to spatial analysis of risk in rural areas and the evaluation of preparedness in the rural districts of the city of Abhar. In particular, this study evaluates the resilience to earthquakes. The research was conducted in two parts in which the first part has used the VIKOR Multiple criteria decision making model as well as the employment of this model in the ArcGis. The second part of the study used field studies, in the form of questionnaires, to evaluate the readiness of the local population against the risks of earthquakes. Four indicators, individual, physical, economic abilities and access, were assessed. The population included rural districts, where statistical samples were villagers. Results of the spatial analysis indicated that 15 villages are in the high-risk areas, 24 villages were in the medium-risk areas and all other villages were in low-risk areas. In terms of readiness of the locals, the results indicated a lack of planning with regards to the four mentioned indicators.

The meaning of a good social outcome in land use transport policy/planning has been relatively underdeveloped, compared to economic and environmental sustainability goals, but this is now changing. Cities are increasingly prioritizing reducing social exclusion, with the allied intent of providing all residents with equitable access to the benefits of their city. However, in jurisdictions that use cost-benefit analysis to guide government decision-making, this poses a challenge: monetization of the benefits of reducing social exclusion is poorly developed. An evaluation gap thus confronts benefit-cost based assessment of initiatives intended to reduce social exclusion, compared to initiatives directed towards societal economic and environmental goals. This is a particular problem for public transport services that primarily enable people at risk of mobility-related social exclusion to access more opportunities in their society (social transit). The benefits of reducing social exclusion associated with these services have not been monetized, so social transit initiatives are poorly placed to argue their merits against competing initiatives where benefit monetization is more advanced (e.g., mass public transport and roads). The paper summarizes Australian research that has developed monetized measures for the value of increased trip making, bridging/bonding social capital, sense of community and several conceptions of wellbeing, and of reducing neighbourhood disadvantage, as these contribute to reducing social exclusion. New Singaporean research on the value of trip making to support reduced exclusion is also presented, affirming the Australian trip values. Trip values are then used in case study examples to show they can make a material difference to the societal worth of initiatives intended to reduce exclusion. Using these trip values, and other pathway values linked to reducing social exclusion, closes or at least substantially reduces the evaluation gap confronting social goal achievement in land use transport policy and planning, strengthening the case for reducing exclusion. These values will assist jurisdictions that are seeking to provide their residents with more equitable access to the benefits of their city.

Natural capital is the wealth of nations that give them the economic status they represent. Worldwide, vulnerable people depend on natural capital for employment, salaries, wealth, and livelihoods and, in turn, determine the developmental index of the nation to which they belong. The availability of ecological services is crucial for clean water and air, food and fodder, and agricultural development. In this short commentary, we have tried to sum up the ideas and discussions over natural capital's role in ascribing economic status to countries. We have discussed how the prosperity of humans is intertwined with the services ecosystems provide and how poor natural resource management (NRM) has adversely cost human well-being. The paper concludes that to ensure the current and future human well-being, an in-depth understanding of the services ecosystems provide, is essential.

Enterprise risk management (ERM) was introduced in the 1990s and has become an expectation by boards of directors and regulators as a sign of good management and good corporate governance. However, many organizations struggle to implement ERM, and still seek practical ad-vice on ERM implementation. This article explains many of the reasons why organizations are unsuccessful in their efforts at implementation and provides practical solutions by an experienced risk manager and consultant, an ex-Chief Risk Officer, and an academic, all who has writ-ten extensively in the subject. This article should be of interest to practitioners involved in implementing ERM, to consultants in ERM, and to academics teaching courses on ERM, risk management, and related topics. This article also provides a base against which further future re-search can be done as ERM best practices continue to evolve.

The stress testing methodology should be implemented and applied to the entity's overall financial system at least annually, and if the organization operates in a volatile economy, it should be performed at least twice a year. Finally, managers should include regular training and development sessions for relevant employees of their organization to be fully informed and more informed and informed, considering the evolving science, theory and practicality of a discrete range of stress testing mechanisms that can be appropriately applied to overall financial framework and system of multiple financial institutions and banks. In addition, stress testing is essentially a methodology that collects and analyzes certain future macro-prudential and micro-prudential economic drivers and indicators, the primary purpose of which is to assess the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a financial institution, bank, organization, credit institution or economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically targeted and incorporated into a paper that substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance of the feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries.

Purpose: Pancreatic cancer (PAAD) is one of the most lethal malignancies. Immunotherapy is largely ineffective in PAAD. T-cell exhaustion contributes to the resistance for immunotherapies. We investigated the prognostic potential of T cell exhaustion-related genes (TEXGs). Methods: Single-cell RNA (scRNA) sequencing dataset from TISCH, and bulk sequencing datasets from TCGA and GTEx were applied to screen differently expressed TEXGs. Kaplan-Meier survival, LASSO regression, and Univariate/Multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed to construct TEXGs risk model. This model was used to predict the prognosis, tumor immune microenvironment, and immunotherapy response. PAAD cohorts from ICGC and GSE71729 datasets were used to validate this risk model. Pan-cancer expression of SPOCK2 was performed in TISCH database. Results: A six-gene (SPOCK2, MT1X, LIPH, RARRES3, EMP1, and MEG3) risk model was constructed. Low-risk PAAD patients had longer survival time in both training dataset (TCGA-PAAD, n=178) and validation datasets (ICGC-PACA-CA, ICGC-PAAD-US, and GSE71729, n=412). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that the risk score was an independent prognostic variable for PAAD. High-risk patients correlated with cancer-related KEGG pathway enrichment, higher mutation frequency of KRAS and TP53 genes, and immunosuppressive status. Immunohistochemistry staining confirmed the changes of TEXGs in clinical samples. Moreover, pan-cancer scRNA sequencing datasets from TISCH analysis indicated that SPOCK2 might be a novel marker of exhausted CD8+ T cells. Conclusion: In conclusion, we established and validated a T cell exhaustion-related prognostic signature for PAAD patients. Moreover, our study suggests that SPOCK2 may be a novel marker of exhausted CD8+ T cells.

Abstract: Wildfires in forest ecosystems exert substantial ecological, economic, and social impacts. The effectiveness of fire management hinges on precise pre‐fire risk assessments to inform mitigation efforts. This study aims to investigate the relationship between predictions from pre‐fire risk assessments and outcomes observed through post‐fire burn severity analyses. In this study, forest fire risk was assessed with the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process, in which fire behavior factors were used as input. The degree of burn was determined using the Random Forest method using 11519 training points and 400 test points on Sentinel‐2 satellite images in three different classes. According to the results obtained from 266 selected test points located within the forest boundaries, all primary factors showed an increased effect in areas with high burn severity. Climate, in particular, emerged as the most influential factor, accounting for 52% of the overall impact. However, in cases of high fire severity, climate proved to be the most effective risk factor, ac‐counting for 67%. It followed by topography with 50% accuracy at high fire intensity. In the risk assessment is based on the FAHP method, climate was assigned the highest weight value among other factors with 32.2%. Topography emerged as the second most effective risk factor with 27 %. To evaluate the results more comprehensively both visually and statistically, two regions with different stand canopy characteristics were selected within the study area. While high burn severity had the highest accuracy in Case 1 area, moderate burn severity had the highest in Case 2 area. During the days when the fire continued, the direction of spread was obtained from MODIS images. In this way, the fire severity depending on the direction of fire progression was also interpreted. Through an analysis of various case studies and existing literature, the research underscores both the strengths and limitations inherent in predicting forest fire behavior‐based pre‐fire risk assessments. Furthermore, it emphasizes the necessity of continuous improvement to increase the success of forest fire management.

Purpose: Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) affects patients’ quality of life and health. Magnesium (Mg) is an essential mineral and a potent antioxidant. Mg deficiency can worsen oxidative stress caused by sleep deprivation or disorders. The impact of OSA on serum Mg levels and its health consequences remain unclear. Methods: This study systematically reviewed clinical studies investigating the serum Mg levels of OSA patients and the potential relationships with other biomarkers.Results: Six articles were included for qualitative synthesis; five were used in quantitative analysis. Two out of four studies that compared OSA patients to healthy controls found them to have significantly lower serum Mg levels. Our meta-analysis with three studies shows that patients with OSA had significantly lower serum Mg with an effect size of -1.22 (95% CI: -2.24, -0.21). However, the mean serum Mg level of OSA patients (n=251) pooled from five studies (1.90 mg/dL, 95% CI: 1.77, 2.04) does not differ significantly from the normal range. OSA severity appears to affect serum Mg negatively. Serum Mg levels generally improve after treatment, coincide with the improvement of OSA severity. Low serum Mg levels correlate with worsening of cardiovascular risk biomarkers of C-reactive protein, ischaemia-modified albumin, and carotid intima-media thickness. The serum Mg levels also potentially correlate with biomarkers for lipid profile, glucose metabolism, calcium and heavy metals. Conclusions: Sleep deprivation appears to deplete Mg levels of OSA patients, making them at risk of Mg deficiency, which potentially increases systemic inflammation and the risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

Manufacturing corporations has the acceptance of the Outsourcing Process (OP) to improve industrial activities as well as to archive the revenue objectives, and with this, Risk Analysis (RA) tools are constantly used to assure expected results. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is one of preferred RA tools, moreover, it is proven that FMEA adds uncertainty because of the human participation at the RA, afterward it is demonstrated that Pythagorean Fuzzy Dimensional Analysis – FMEA – Value Stream Mapping (PFDA-FMEA-VSM) method removes the uncertainty in RA, likewise it aids to the stakeholders for decision making, giving more advantages improving the use of the resources on the project. This document exhibits a real case scenario in a manufacturing firm applying PFDA-FMEA-VSM method adapted for manufacturing OP. The application of PFDA-FMEA-VSM shows solid RA results, removing the human intervention uncertainty added to the risk ranking, gives advantages to the stakeholders for visualize the main risks in detailed diagram, as well as make easier to take better decisions on where to apply resources and mitigate risks during OP.

The interaction between oceanographic, meteorological, and hydrological factors can result in an extreme flooding scenario in the low-lying coastal area, called compound flooding (CF) events. For instance, rainfall and storm surge (or high river discharge) can be driven by the same meteorological, tropical or extra-tropical cyclones, resulting in a CF phenomenon. The trivariate distributional framework can significantly explain compound events' statistical behaviour reducing the associated high-impact flood risk. Resolving heterogenous dependency of the multidimensional CF events by incorporating traditional 3-D symmetric or fully nested Archimedean copula is quite complex. The main challenge is to preserve all lower-level dependencies. An approach based on decomposing the full multivariate density into simple local building blocks via conditional independence called vine or pair-copulas is a much more comprehensive way of approximating the trivariate flood dependence structure. In this study, a parametric vine copula of a drawable (D-vine) structure is introduced in the trivariate modelling of flooding events with 46 years of observations of the west Coast of Canada. This trivariate framework searches dependency by combining the joint impact of annual maximum 24-hr rainfall and the highest storm surge and river discharge observed within the time ±1 day of the highest rainfall event. The D-vine structures are constructed in three alternative ways by permutation of the conditioning variables. The most appropriate D-vine structure is selected using the fitness test statistics and estimating trivariate joint and conditional joint return periods. The investigation confirms that the D-vine copula can effectively define the compound phenomenon's dependency. The failure probability (FP) method is also adopted in assessing the trivariate hydrologic risk. It is observed that hydrologic events defined in the trivariate case produce higher FP than in the bivariate (or univariate) case. It is also concluded that hydrologic risk increases (i) with an increase in the service design life of the hydraulic facilities and (ii) with a decrease in return periods.

The water quality index (WQI) and irrigational index for groundwater were studied in the northeastern section of the Manipur Valley in northeast India. Water samples were collected in 2022 during the pre-monsoon season. To compute the water quality index for drinking water, the basic chemical parameters of total hardness, pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, Ca2+, Na+, Fe, Mg2+, Mn, Cl-, and HCO3, were used. The assessment of bacteriological quality is also done, which is crucial for overall water quality evaluation, alongside physical and chemical analyze. For determining irrigation suitability, irrigational indices such as sodium absorption ratio, sodium percentage, and magnesium hazard were calculated. WQI, %Na+, SAR, magnesium hazard, permeability Index and total hardness indicate that most water samples are harmless for irrigation and drinking purpose. They have affirmative relationships indicating that these characteristics are interdependent. Approximately 25% of the Piedmont zone groundwater is found to be unfit for agricultural and drinking usage. The encrustation of gypsum, halite, and evaporation into the Disang shares accelerate the dissolution of ions in Piedmont water, resulting in quality degradation. According to Gibbs plots, Durov Scatter Plot, and Hill Piper Trilinear Diagram of water dominated the rock-weathering process, while hydro chemical facies progressed from the beginning to the intermediate stage of Chadha's graphical representation illustrates the progression of hydro chemical processes in surface water. Therefore, proper integrated water resource management and development are required for effective water resource utilization, particularly around the Piedmont zone. To prevent a water crisis, groundwater resources must be managed sustainably. The current study also concentrated on a bibliometric examination of groundwater management and access to gauge the state of the field.

This paper explores decision analysis on product integration of family security services and residential fire insurance in the London and Taiwan markets by using the proposed mathematical models for counting sustainable value. This paper shows the five main different results between London and Taiwan markets with ten different parameters of the family security market, to find out the optimal number of family security integrated services for each security company in London. The improvement of the risk aversion effect based on risk and financial management will enhance the market share of the private security industries in the London and Taiwan markets. The results of this research can serve as a reference for the decision-making of private security industries on product integration under sustainable value consideration. The research findings highlight the potential benefits for both the private security industry and the insurance industry in their design and negotiation for product integration to improve both of business operation and achieve corporate social responsibility goals to match the sustainability in the future.

We analyze the upside and downside risk connectedness among international stock markets. We characterize the connectedness among international stock returns using the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index approach and compute the upside and downside value-at-risk. We document that the connectedness level of the downside risk is higher than that of the upside risk and that stock markets are more sensitive when the stock market declines. We also find that specific periods (e.g., the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 turmoil) intensify the spillover effects across international stock markets. Our results demonstrate that the EU, Ger-many, and the US acted as net transmitters of dynamic connectedness; however, Japan (JP), China (CH), and India (IN) acted as net receivers of dynamic connectedness during the sample period. These findings provide significant new information to policymakers and market participants.

Atmospheric pollution arising from diesel-powered engines can result in acute and chronic diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. The annual carnival festival that takes place in the city of Salvador, Bahia-Brazil, is a large-scale event that gathers approximately 2 m revelers and 170,000 workers who accompany dozens of sound-trucks, or trios elétricos, for a period of seven days. These slow-moving sound-trucks run on diesel fuel, constantly exposing those around them to exhaust fumes. The present study aimed to evaluate air quality along the approximately 10km-long carnival parade circuit and determine possible impacts on human health. We applied a three-phase risk analysis strategy from 2007–2009: 1) hazard identification, 2) risk characterization and 3) risk management. Our quantification of atmospheric particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations revealed variable levels of PM2.5 ranging from 19 µg/m³ to 580 µg/m³, with peaks of up to 800 μg/m³ at sound-truck concentration areas. We then assessed the effects of air pollution on human health using ophthalmologic parameters obtained from 28 carnival volunteers, who often presented symptoms of eye irritation. Finally, we established strategies to communicate the study’s objectives and obtained results to the population through media outlets and open discussions with government agencies. According to our risk analysis, carnival sound-trucks represent the main source of atmospheric PM2.5 and NO₂ pollution during the annual 7-day carnival festival. As a consequence of our research, the municipal government of Salvador issued an addendum to its carnival legislation mandating organizers to monitor atmospheric pollution, and, subsequently, all large-scale public events. Municipal government authorities have also promoted a shift from petroleum-based diesel fuel to biodiesel, a less-polluting fuel, for all adapted carnival sound-trucks. Our approach, which employed easily accessible and inexpensive methodology, provided substantial scientific evidence to support improvements in the regulation of air quality during large-scale public events held in the city of Salvador.Keywords: environmental

The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.

Reliability assessment in traditional power distribution systems has played a key role in power system planning, design, and operation. Recently, new information and communication technologies have been introduced in power systems automation and asset management, making the distribution network even more complex. In order to achieve efficient energy management, the distribution grid has to adopt a new configuration and operational conditions that are changing the paradigm of the actual electrical system. Therefore, the emergence of the cyber-physical systems concept to face future energetic needs requires alternative approaches for evaluating the reliability of modern distribution systems, especially in the smart grids environment. In this paper, a reliability approach that makes use of failure modes of power and cyber network main components is proposed to evaluate risk analysis in smart electrical distribution systems. We introduce the application of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) method in future smart grid systems in order to establish the impact of different failure modes on their performance. A smart grid test system is defined and failure modes and their effects for both power and the cyber components are presented. Preventive maintenance tasks are proposed and systematized to minimize the impact of high-risk failures and increase reliability.

The research explores the impact of financial indicators on the credit ratings of companies listed on the S&amp;P 500, employing a Sys-GMM Model to address endogeneity concerns. The study investigated three independent variables categorized as market and survival factors alongside with seven control variables sourced from leverage, liquidity, interest coverage, profitability, market, survival, and macroeconomic domains. The sample comprised 2398 observations from Capital IQ Pro, spanning nine years (2013 to 2021) and encompassing 240 public companies. The findings suggest that neither Tobin's Q (TQ) and Total Shareholder Return (TSR) lack significant correlations with credit ratings, implying that stock market performance and total shareholder return do not directly impact credit ratings. In contrast, the Altman Z-score (AZS) emerged as a significant predictor, indicating its importance in assessing credit risk. These insights enhance understanding of financial indicators' impact on credit ratings, aiding financial institutions and companies in prudent lending and financing decisions.

The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.

Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.

The increasing prevalence of periprosthetic femoral fractures, specifically in the vicinity of the hip, has emerged as a significant issue in recent times. Consequently, there is a need for a thorough examination to enhance the effectiveness of management and treatment approaches. The findings emphasized a significant disparity in the occurrence and characteristics of these fractures, as multiple studies have highlighted the efficacy of various treatment strategies, such as open reduction and internal fixation, as well as the utilization of cortical strut allografts. Furthermore, the research has identified potential risk factors that have an impact on the characteristics of fractures, providing valuable insights that could be crucial in the development of preventive strategies. This research provides a thorough examination of periprosthetic femoral fractures, highlighting the importance of a cohesive treatment algorithm to improve the handling of such fractures. Moreover, it promotes the need for a collaborative endeavor in conducting research in this field, cultivating a more profound comprehension that has the potential to drive progress in therapeutic approaches, ultimately enhancing patient results over an extended period of time. It is crucial that forthcoming research endeavors persist in expanding upon these discoveries, striving towards a unified methodology in tackling this substantial clinical obstacle.

The building and construction sector has a significant impact on CO2 emissions and pollutants released into the atmosphere, which contribute to climate change. The EPDB Directive mandates the achievement of a minimum energy class E for all residential buildings by 2030 and an energy class D by 2033. Particularly, in Italy, about 86% of the existing building stock predates the enactment of any energy laws and regulations, making it imperative to apply the energy efficiency interventions. This paper provides a support decision tool for the identification of standardized interventions on the envelope, air conditioning system and domestic hot water production. The study is focused on a specific construction period class (1976 - 1990) in six different climatic zones. The methodological approach is based on a cataloguing phase and definition of Ante Operam energy classes, on the case study identification, the energy requalification interventions identification, solutions simulations, cost estimation. By simulating standardized interventions for each climatic zone, a range of possible combinations will be identified. The most advantageous ones will be determined based on a cost-benefit analysis, considering the potential class jump achieved. The research result is a matrix of energy efficiency interventions that is applicable to each climatic zone and can be extended to the existing housing stock.

Results-Based Funding (RBF) for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has become an important instrument for channeling financial resources to forest conservation activities. At the same time, much literature on conservation funding is ambiguous about the effectiveness of existing RBF schemes. Many effectiveness evaluations follow a simplified version of the principal-agent model, although in practice the relation between aid providers and funding recipients is much more complex. As a consequence, intermediary steps of conservation funding are often not accounted for effectiveness studies. This research paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of conservation funding by analyzing the allocation of financial resources for one of the largest RBF schemes for REDD+ in the world: the Brazilian Amazon Fund. As part of this analysis, this study has built a dataset of information on Amazon Fund projects at unprecedented detail in order to accurately reconstruct the allocation of financial resources across different stakeholders (i.e. governments, NGOs, research institutions), geographies and activities. The results show that stakeholders seem to hold preferences with respect to the type of activities that they support, thereby suggesting that project owners exert much influence on how deforestation reduction is to be attained. There are evidences that governmental organizations lack financial additionality of their projects, which renders the growing share of funding to this type of stakeholder particularly worrisome. By contrast, the geographical distribution of financial resources seemed to follow a more focused rationale as financial support tends to concentrate in areas where deforestation threats are highest. Overall, the allocation of the financial resources from the Amazon Fund reflects an arbitrary support of different projects that adopt very diverging theories of change that are not primarily concerned with attaining further deforestation reductions. As projects owners exert influence on funding effectiveness to some extent, the Amazon Fund may either seek to regulate the allocation of financial resources more actively or adopt funding effectiveness evaluations that account for this influence more comprehensively.

Breast cancer is the most common cause of mortality due to cancer for woman both in Lithuania and worldwide. Chances of survival after diagnosis differ significantly depending on the stage of disease at the time of diagnosis and other factors. One way to estimate survival is to construct a Kaplan-Meier estimate for each factor value separately. However, in cases when it is impossible to observe a large number of patients (for example, in case of countries with lower numbers of inhabitants) dividing data into subsets, say, by stage at diagnosis may lead to results where some subsets contain too little data so that results of Kaplan Meier (or any other) method will become statistically incredible. The problem may become even more acute if the researcher would like to use more risk factors, such as stage at diagnosis, sex, place of living, treatment method, etc. Alternatively, Cox models are used to analyse survival data with covariates, and they don’t require dividing the data into subsets according to chosen risks factors (hazards).

The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.

Pufferfish (Tetraodontidae) inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea can represent an emerging public health risk due to the possible accumulation of marine neurotoxins (TTXs and STXs) in their tissues. In this study, the presence of pufferfish species in the Strait of the Sicily (Lampedusa Island, Italy) was investigated using a Citizen Science (CS) approach involving local fishermen. A sub-group of specimens collected were sent to the National reference Laboratory on Marine Biotoxins for de-termining the presence of TTXs using a validated HILIC-MS/MS method on fish tissue. The STXs presence was also screened in some specimens. Overall, 56 specimens, identified as Sphoeroides pachygaster (Müller &Troschel, 1848) were collected. Data on specimen total length, body weight, fishing method, catch area (with relative depth temperature and salinity) were analyzed and compared with the S. pachygaster records reported in Guardone et al. (2018), which were appro-priately updated until 2022. All the analysed tissues were found to be negative for both TTXs and STXs. The key role of the CS in monitoring potentially toxic marine species was proved. Outcomes from this study, the first investigating the toxicity of S. pachygaster in Italian waters, may provide useful data for the proper assessment of this emerging risk

Over the last decade, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has severely affected poultry production systems across the globe. In particular, massive pre-emptive depopulation of all poultry within the certain distance has raised concerns regarding animal welfare and food security. Thus, alternative approaches to reducing unnecessary depopulation, such as risk-based depopulation, are highly demanded. This paper proposes a data-driven method to generate a rule table and risk score for each farm to identify preventive measures against HPAI. To evaluate the proposed method, 105 cases of HPAI occurring in a total of 381 farms in Jeollanam-do from 2014 to 2023 were evaluated. The accuracy of preventive measure identification was assessed for each case using both the conventional culling method and the proposed data-driven method. The evaluation showed that the proposed method achieved an accuracy of 84.19%, significantly surpassing the previous 10.37%. The result was attributed to the proposed method reducing the false-positive rate by 83.61% compared with the conventional method, thereby enhancing the reliability of identification. The proposed method is expected to be utilized in selecting farms for monitoring and management of HPAI.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer (CRC) are significant health problems and share some risk factors. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a predictive score for advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRN) based on risk factors for cardiovascular disease and CRC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study comprising a derivation cohort and an external validation cohort of 1049 and 308 patients respectively. A prediction score for advanced CRN (CRNAS: Colorectal Neoplasia Advanced Score) was developed from a logistic regression model, comprising sex, age, first-degree family history for CRC, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and antihypertensive treatment. Other cardiovascular risk scores (Framingham-Wilson, REGICOR, SCORE and FRESCO) were also used to predict the risk of advanced CRN. The discriminatory capacity of each score was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: CRN were found in 379 subjects from the derivation cohort (36%) including 228 patients (22%) with an advanced CRN. Male sex, age, diabetes, and smoking were identified as independent risk factors for advanced CRN. The newly created score (CRNAS), showed an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64-0.73) for advanced CRN, which was better than cardiovascular risk scores (p

We assessed the association between cirrhosis and severe COVID-19-related outcomes among people with laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 infection in British Columbia, Canada. We used data from the British Columbia (BC) COVID-19 Cohort, a population-based cohort that integrates data on all individuals tested for COVID-19 with data on hospitalizations, medical visits, emergency room visits, prescription drugs, chronic conditions, and deaths in the Canadian province of BC. We included all individuals, aged ≥ 18 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, from January 01, 2021, to December 31, 2021. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between cirrhosis status and COVID-19-related hospitalization and ICU admission. Of the 162,509 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were included in the analysis, 768 (0.5%) had cirrhosis. In the multivariable models, cirrhosis was associated with increased odds of hospitalization (aOR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.58 – 2.47) and ICU admission (aOR=3.33, 95% CI: 2.56 – 4.35). In the analyses stratified by age, we found that the increased odds of ICU admission among people with cirrhosis were present in all the assessed age-groups. Cirrhosis is associated with increased odds of hospitalization and ICU admission among COVID-19 patients.

Social sustainability is the major concern of planners and local officials when urban renewal projects are being conducted. Extreme individualism can potentially cause conflicts of interest, making urban renewal in Western cities fraught with various types of social risks. As a country with deep-rooted socialist tradition, urban renewal projects in China are influenced by collectivist culture and show different features from those of the West. The objective of this research is to investigate how different stakeholders in urban redevelopment projects, including local residents, social organizations, the local state, and developers, interact with each other and how the associated social risks are hedged against. Using a recent well-known project in the city of Guangzhou, the authors attempt to present the latest progress in social risk management in China. With the support from a government-sponsored project, the authors have conducted a questionnaire-based survey and year-long follow-up fieldwork. Using ATLAS.ti software, we found that that “residents’ demand”, “status of collaboration”, and “degree of trust” are the keys to risk management. The results of an ordered probit model show that residents are worried about the overall planning, the relocation timetable, and whether their personal needs are taken into account. It is also indicated that the timely disclosure of project information, high-quality public participation, and a reasonable compensation plan can possibly boost the support rate. The authors suggest that utilizing China’s collectivist culture could be an effective way to mitigate social risks, and residents’ personal interests should also be respected.

The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).

Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.

The hazard and the carcinogenic risks due to the exposure to some potentially toxic elements by the Santiago Island (Cape Verde) population where calculated, considering soil ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact as exposure pathways. The topsoil of Santiago Island is enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Mn and Cd to upper crust values. Hazard indices (HI) were calculated for these metals and As exposures, of Santiago Island population and the calculations were performed for children and adults. For children HI are higher than 1 for Co, Cr and Mn. So there is indication of potential non-carcinogenic risk for children, due to the high Co (HI=2.995), Cr (HI=1.329) and Mn (HI=1.126), values in soils. For the other elements and for adults there is no potential non-carcinogenic risk. Cancer risk was calculated for As, Cd, Cr and Ni exposures, for adults and children and the results are always lower than the carcinogenic target risk of 1x10-6, for As, Cd, and Ni. However, cancer risk are higher than the carcinogenic target risk for Cr, for adults. Regarding As, for children the fraction due to Riskingestion represents 51.6%, while Riskinhalation represents 48.0% and Riskdermalcontact represents only 0.4% of total risk. For adults Riskinhalation represents 81.3%, Riskingestion represents 16.6% and Riskdermal contact represents 2.1%. These results reflect the higher daily ingestion dose for children and the higher inhalation rate and higher dermal contact surface for adults. For the other elements and for adults the cancer risk due to Cr, Ni and Cd inhalation is always higher than for children, reflecting the higher inhalation rate for adults.

We present an updated design process for adapting and integrating existing cyber risk assessment approaches for impact assessment for the risk from IoT to the digital economy. The new design process includes a set of changes to the original standards (e.g. NIST) that are adapted for the IoT cyber risk in this paper. This paper also presents a new framework for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk, specific for the digital economy.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.

COVID-19 is an infectious disease spreading through human touch. This study explored the risk perception and knowledge towards COVID-19 infection among Bangladeshi adult participants. Two self-administered online surveys were administered at two different time points from 26-31 March 2020 (Early lockdown) and 11-16 May 2020 (Late lockdown) through social media on 1005 respondents (322 and 683 participants, respectively) during COVID-19 lockdown period in Bangladesh. Univariate and multiple linear regression models were used to examine factors associated with risk perception and knowledge towards COVID-19. The mean knowledge (8.4 vs. 8.1, P=0.022) and risk perception (11.2 vs. 10.6, P < 0.001) scores differ significantly between early and late lockdown. Compared to the early lockdown period, the scores for perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 decreased significantly while public knowledge about COVID-19 was lower but not statistically significant. Female participants who practiced high quarantine particularly those who did so at the public health order during the lockdown reported increased knowledge towards the spread of COVID-19 and perceived high risk of contracting COVID-19. Education intervention using awareness to increase public knowledge and perception towards COVID-19 in Bangladesh should target male participants who practiced low quarantine and are less worried about the spread of such novel coronavirus even as the physical distancing persists.

Lifestyle physical activity (PA) and nutrition are known to be effective interventions in preventing and managing obesity related comorbidities is adult populations, but less so in children and adolescents. We examined the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in children from minority ethnic populations in western high-income countries. Our systematic review included 53 studies involving 26045 children from minority ethnic populations within western countries, who followed lifestyle intervention programs lasting between 8 weeks and 5 years with an aim to prevent and/or manage childhood obesity and associated comorbidities, including adiposity and cardiometabolic risks. Studies were heterogenous in terms of lifestyle intervention components (nutrition, PA, behavioural counselling) and settings (community vs. schools and after schools). Our meta-analysis included 31 eligible studies and showed no significant effects of lifestyle interventions when they focused on body weight and body mass index (BMI) outcomes [pooled BMI mean change = -0.09 (95% CI -0.19, 0.01), p=0.09]. This was irrespective of the intervention program duration (< 6 months vs. ≥ 6 months), type (PA vs nutrition/combined intervention) and weight status (overweight or obese vs no normal weight), all showed no significant effects in the sensitivity analysis. Nonetheless, 19 of the 53 studies reported reduction in BMI, BMI z scores and body fat percentage. However, majority of lifestyle interventions adopting a quasi-design with a combined primary and secondary obesity measures (11 out of 15 studies), were effective in reducing obesity comorbidities of cardiometabolic risks including metabolic syndrome, insulin sensitivity, and blood pressure in children with overweight and obesity. Preventing childhood obesity and associated comorbidities in children from high-risk ethnic minority groups is best achieved using a combined PA and nutrition intervention approach, which jointly target preventing obesity and cardiometabolic disease primary and secondary outcomes, especially measures of diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease.

In order to summarized the polygenic background of psychiatric diseases, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been developed. Recently, PRS have been use to predict patients with higher comorbidities in psychiatric diseases, like dual diagnosis. PRS are principally derived in analysis of Caucasian and Asian populations, we are not aware of how this PRS could be applied in populations with high admixture. In order to explored this, the present work has the aim to analyzed if previous calculated PRS for psychiatric diseases could predict dual diagnosis in Mexican population, and also, if PRS calculation could be influenced by Mexican Amerindian (MA) global ancestry. We performed PRS calculation, using PRSice, with summary genome-wide association statistics previously published for psychiatric diseases, and also, performed Nagelkerke correlation test in order to established if PRS are correlated with dual diagnosis. We found that dual diagnosis could be predicted by major depressive disorder polygenic risk score. Nevertheless, schizophrenia polygenic risk score is highly correlated with global MA ancestry, independently of the schizophrenia diagnosis. Our results reinforced the notion that PRS calculation could be deviated by the MA global ancestry, nevertheless analysis on larger sample sizes are required in order to clarified this issue.

Authorities and governmental bodies strongly emphasize the importance of residents preparing for natural disasters, particularly underscoring the significance of readiness for geophysical hazards like earthquakes. In this study, which represents comparative quantitative research, the levels and predictors of the impact on preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters in South-Eastern Europe countries such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia are examined. Using the snowball sampling technique (online questionnaire), a survey of 1245 respondents (Montenegro (n = 400), North Macedonia (n = 345), and Serbia (n = 500) was conducted from February 2023 to February 2024. The paper is based on the central hypothesis that the most significant predictor of earthquake preparedness in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia is age, followed by gender and education. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which five scores of the subscales (household preparedness, community preparedness, disaster preparation, earthquake risk awareness, reinforced house) were associated with seventh demographic and socio-economic variables. In addition to the mentioned analysis, other statistical analyses such as T-test, one-way ANOVA analysis, and Pearson correlation were also utilized. The results indicate that age emerges as a predictor in various aspects of earthquake-induced disaster preparedness and awareness in most models, followed by education. These findings confirm the significance of respondents' age in determining levels of preparedness and earthquake awareness. Overall, in North Macedonia, respondents recorded the highest ratings (M = 3.52) for household preparedness for earthquakes, compared to Montenegro (M = 2.98) and Serbia (M = 3.26), where the lowest ratings were recorded. Research findings, taking into account cultural characteristics, can serve as a basis for the development of targeted interventions, strategies, policies, and programs aimed at improving the level of societal preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters.

Aims: Multidisciplinary diabetic foot clinics have been shown to be an effective therapeutic model for reducing major amputations and mortality rates. The aim of this article is to assess the economic impact of the implementation of a multidisciplinary diabetic foot clinic in a hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Methods: Observational cost-benefit study of all subjects with diabetes admitted with the diagnosis of a major amputation due to diabetic foot from 2010 to 2020. Direct and indirect costs were compared before and after the introduction of the multidisciplinary diabetic foot clinic. Results: The individual cost per patient with diabetic foot was €14,768 before the implementation of the unit. After the implementation of the clinic, the expected cost was reduced to €5,985 due to a 40% reduction in the probability of hospitalization. Overall, the implementation of the clinic resulted in cost savings per patient valued at €8,783, of which, €7,165 are related to hospital benefits. Conclusion: The results of this analysis contributes to the evidence suggesting that multidisciplinary diabetic foot clinics are cost-effective, by demonstrating that they have a positive impact on patient health while also reducing the utilization of healthcare resources.

This is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the benefit of urban open spaces and cropland with different adjacent public facilities seen as locally undesirable (“not in my backyard,” NIMBY) or desirable (“yes in my backyard,” YIMBY). The total benefit increases or decreases for urban open space and cropland with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities in a municipality in Taiwan. The results show that for the city as a whole, the current arrangement of NIMBY and YIMBY in different zones decreases the total benefit of urban open spaces in highly urbanized zones and increases the total damage to cropland in extremely rural zones. This indicates a need to avoid further installing NIMBY or YIMBY facilities in already occupied urban open spaces. The results also demonstrate that locating NIMBY or YIMBY facilities near cropland fails to highlight the benefit of YIMBY facilities and magnifies opposition to NIMBY facilities. For individual housing units, the total damage is 1.87% of the average housing price for cropland-type open space with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities, and the total benefit is 7.43% of the average housing price for urban-type open space in a highly urbanized area. In contrast, the total benefit for open space with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities is a 2.95%-13.80% increase in the average housing price for areas with mixed urban open space and cropland.

This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.

Given that the outcome of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with cisplatin for intrahepatic advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear, we aimed to compare prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) following HAIC with cisplatin versus sorafenib for intrahepatic advanced HCC using propensity score-matched analysis. We enrolled 348 patients with intrahepatic advanced HCC who received HAIC with cisplatin (n = 97) or sorafenib (n = 251) between June 2006 and March 2020. No significant difference was observed in OS between HAIC with cisplatin and sorafenib cohorts (median survival time [MST]: 13.9 vs. 12.7 months; p = 0.0989). To reduce confounding effects, 176 patients were selected using propensity score-matched analysis (n = 88 for each treatment). HAIC with cisplatin significantly prolonged OS compared with sorafenib (MST: 16.2 vs. 12.2 months; p = 0.0060). Following stratification according to the Child–Pugh classification, for both patients with class A (MST: 24.0 vs. 15.6 months; p = 0.0097) and class B (MST: 8.5 vs. 6.9 months; p = 0.0391), HAIC with cisplatin rather than sorafenib significantly prolonged OS. Our findings suggest that HAIC with cisplatin demonstrates longer prognostic effects than sorafenib in intrahepatic advanced HCC, regardless of the hepatic reserve.

Our objective was to evaluate whether pregnancy is prolonged by use of a proteomics-based maternal serum screening test followed by treatment interventions. This is a secondary analysis of the PREVENT-PTB randomized trial comparing screening with the PreTRM test versus no screening. The primary trial analysis found no significant between-group difference in preterm birth rate. Rather than considering a dichotomous outcome (preterm vs term), we treated gestational age at birth as a continuous variable using survival analysis. We also evaluated between-group difference in NICU length of stay and duration of respiratory support. Results indicated that pregnancy was significantly prolonged in subjects screened with PreTRM test compared to controls (adjusted hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.36-0.78, P &lt;0.01). Newborns of screened subjects had significantly shorter NICU stay but no significant decrease in duration of respiratory support. In the PreTRM screen-positive group, interventions that were associated with pregnancy prolongation included care management and low-dose aspirin but not 17-hydroxyprogesterone caproate. We concluded that screening with the PreTRM test followed by interventions for screen-positive pregnancies can prolong pregnancy and reduce NICU-LOS.

Pregnancy is a complex biological process which is associated with significant metabolic and hemodynamic changes of the maternal body which allow a normal fetal growth. The inability to adapt to these changes can affect the cardiovascular health. During pregnancy, women may experience mood swings, anxiety and emotional ambivalence. These symptoms can lead to stress and have a negative impact on the mental well-being of expectant mothers. It is crucial to know the aspects that can influence the development of cardiovascular problems among pregnant women in order to manage these cases properly. The current narrative review explores and summarizes the evidence regarding the impact of stress and anxiety on cardiovascular health in pregnant women. Understanding the physiological adaptations that the body undergoes throughout pregnancy is crucial for educating and supporting individuals as well as healthcare professionals. This enables them to recognize any risk factors or pathological conditions that may exacerbate pregnant women's health. In order to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease, a psychological and cardiovascular risk factor screening that is done either before or during pregnancy may be able to identify situations that call for particular medical and/or psychological therapies.

This paper utilizes the 2020 financial data of A-share listed companies, both ST and non-ST, as the data sample. The model is constructed employing the Factor-Logistic fusion algorithm. Eight key indicator factors were selected from the frameworks of profitability, solvency, operating capacity, development potential, shareholder retained earnings, cash flow and asset growth. An independent indicator system was subsequently established to address the issue of collinearity among risk indicators. The results of model are presented in the form of probabilities, enhancing the interpretability of model. The weights of the features indicate the influence of different features on the final outcome. The model achieves a prediction accuracy of over 89%, with an AUC score exceeding 95%. Finally, by applying the principles of interval estimation theory in statistical hypothesis testing, the risk levels are categorized as A-level representing significant risk, B-level representing moderate risk, C-level representing minor risk and D-level representing no risk. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive definition of a universal financial risk management warning model for enterprises, applicable to all enterprises in China.

For a long-only active equity manager (or investor), the ability to hedge the downside risk before a significant price correction is a valuable skill. The authors proposed constructing a signal that provides timing information for a manager to hedge the downside risk. This systematic signal can help a manager put on a hedge before the price corrections of the dot com bubble in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. The signal is constructed for each GICS sector index in the S&P 500. When a sector’s PE indicates a high valuation and, at the same time, if the high valuation sector’s correlations with some other sectors are out of their historical norm, then these two conditions contribute a timing signal for the significant price swing of the index during the following six months. After observing the timing signal, managers can benefit significantly by hedging the downside risk. The signal can also be interpreted as the beginning of a high volatility regime for a sector.

1. Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are India’s leading cause of mortality. This study aimed to recalibrate the original Framingham Risk Score (FRS) equations among adults in Kerala state. 2. Methods: Baseline survey data from the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program were analyzed: 921 males and 567 females for lipid-based FRS scores and 1042 males and 646 females for BMI-based FRS scores. Recalibration of the original FRS scores was performed using local data on CVD risk factors and CVD mortality. 3. Results: Among males, the median 10-year CVD risk with the recalibrated lipid-based FRS score was 7.34 (IQR 4.33-12.42), compared with the original score of 8.88 (5.23-14.87) (p<0.001). For BMI-based FRS scores, the median 10-year CVD risk was 7.40 (4.27-11.83) with the recalibrated score, compared to 9.32 (5.40-14.80) for the original score (p<0.001). In females, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.83 (2.90-8.36) with the recalibrated score, compared to 2.85 (IQR 1.71-4.98) with the original score (p<0.001). Similarly, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.66 (2.74-8.81) with the recalibrated BMI-based FRS score, compared to 2.95 (1.72-5.61) with the original score (p<0.001). 4. Conclusions: Recalibrated FRS scores estimated a significantly lower 10-year CVD risk in males and a higher risk in females than the original FRS scores.

Consumer preference for products made from transgenic technology has been widely studied, yet few studies exist exploring the factors influencing producers’ adoption of transgenic technology. Based on field surveys in Chinese provinces of Shanxi, Henan and Shandong, we employed a gambling experiment to capture producers’ risk preferences by estimating their risk aversion coefficients. We further estimated producers’ risk amplification and risk perception of GM technology. Using ordered logit model and Poisson model we identified the major factors influencing producers’ adoption of transgenic technology. We found the factors impacted the decision of producers from different regions in different ways. The results showed that over 60% of participants amplified the risk of transgenic crops. When there was potential risk, producers might not be rational even if they had high level of knowledge and cognition about the technology. Our results shed light on government policies aiming to increase the adoption of new technologies by producers.

Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.

Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.

The global transport sector of the world economy contributes about 15% of the Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) emissions in the world today. The University of Saskatchewan has pursued the green energy transition over the years. They have spearheaded diverse sustainability projects and agendas, due to the importance of curbing climate change and advancing sustainability. The transport system in the university campus is one area of focus where the Sustainability Office plans to introduce some innovations, as a way of curbing GHG emissions while also advancing sustainability practice in the university campus. The study carried out an economic benefit analysis on the campus fleet (consisting of 91 ICE vehicles) to determine if it is economically or financially feasible to transition from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) or PVs (Petrol Vehicles) to Electric Vehicles (EVs). The analysis used RETScreen Expert software for analyzing renewable energy technology projects. The variables of Payback Period (PBP), cash flow projections, savings made from transitioning (fuel cost savings and energy cost savings), Benefit-Cost-ratio, GHG emission reduction potential, etc. were analyzed. The findings revealed that the GHG emission from the campus fleet will be reduced by 100% (this will result in the removal of about 298.1 tCO₂ from the environment). Also, the fleet manager will save approximately $129,049 (88.9%) in fuel costs. Apart from these, the return on investment will be achieved in year 5 (all things being equal), but can be reduced to year 2 if the vehicles are put into constant and active use (eliminating most idle times. Also, the Sustainability Office will be making a GHG reduction revenue of $14,906.

Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.

Background: Appendicular skeletal muscle (or lean) mass (ALM) estimated using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is considered to be a preferred method for sarcopenia studies. However, DXA is expensive, has limited portability, and requires radiation exposure. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is inexpensive, easy to use, and portable; thus BIA might be useful in sarcopenia investigations. However, a large variety of models have been commercially supplied by different companies, and for most consumer products, the equations estimating ALM are not disclosed. It is therefore difficult to use these equations for research purposes. In particular, the BIA equation is often age-dependent, which leads to fundamental difficulty in examining age-related ALM loss. The aims of the current study were as follows: (1) to develop and validate an equation to estimate ALM using multi-frequency BIA (MF-BIA) based on theoretical models, and (2) to establish sarcopenia cutoff values using the equation for the Japanese population. Methods: We measured height (Ht), weight, and ALM obtained using DXA and a standing-posture 8-electrode MF-BIA (5, 50, 250 kHz) in 756 Japanese individuals aged 18 to 86-years-old (222 men and 301 women as developing equation group and 97 men and 136 women as a cross validation group). The traditional impedance index (Ht²/Z₅₀) and impedance ratio of high and low frequency (Z₂₅₀/Z₅) of hand to foot values were calculated. Multiple regression analyses were conducted with ALM as dependent variable in men and women separately. Results: We created the following equations: ALM = (0.6947 × (Ht²/Z₅₀)) + (−55.24 × (Z₂₅₀/Z₅)) + (−10,940 × (1/Z₅₀)) + 51.33 for men, and ALM = (0.6144 × (Ht²/Z₅₀)) + (−36.61 × (Z₂₅₀/Z₅)) + (−9332 × (1/Z₅₀)) + 37.91 for women. Additionally, we conducted measurements in 1624 men and 1368 women aged 18 to 40 years to establish sarcopenia cutoff values in the Japanese population. The mean values minus 2 standard deviations of the skeletal muscle mass index (ALM/Ht²) in these participants were 6.8 and 5.7 kg/m² in men and women, respectively. Conclusion: The current study established and validated a theoretical and age-independent equation using MF-BIA to estimate ALM and provided reasonable sarcopenia cutoff values.

The capital allocation framework proposed by [] presents capital allocation principles as solutions to particular optimization problems and provides a general solution of the quadratic allocation problem via a geometric proof. However, the widely used haircut allocation principle is not reconcilable with that optimization setting. In this paper we provide an alternative proof of the quadratic allocation problem based on the Lagrange multipliers method to reach the general solution. We show that the haircut allocation principle can be accommodated to the optimization setting with the quadratic optimization criterion if one of the original conditions is relaxed. Two examples are provided to illustrate the accommodation of this allocation principle.

Contamination of soil and crops with heavy metals (HMs) poses a significant environmental challenge in the United States. Hence, this study aimed to assess HM contamination levels from sampled Ohio and West Virginia soils using various pollution indicators analyses, including Enrichment Factor (EF), Geo-accumulation index (lgeo), Contamination Factor (CF), and Pollution Load Index (PLI) and identify the Translocation Factor (TF) of HMs in the edible part of the vegetables and further evaluate health risks associated with dietary exposure through estimations of Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), Hazard Index (HI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ), Cancer Risk (CR) and Target Cancer Risk (TCR) on adults and children. In this study, Fe was the most predominant contaminant, ranging from 28.41 to 67.36 g/kg in the soil. Cancer risk assessment revealed that Ni poses significant risks. Therefore, regular monitoring of metal concentrations in soil and vegetables grown in these regions might mitigate potential health hazards in the future.

Falls are the third-leading cause of disabilities among the elderly population worldwide. In Pakistan, the prevalence is 44%; out of them, 8% develop injuries, placing them at high risk for hospitalization or even premature death. Interestingly, fall is multifactorial, and fall risk depends on individual characteristics (intrinsic factors) and environmental features (extrinsic factors), which can be different from context to context. Therefore, regular assessment of fall risk factors is required to develop a strategy for fall prevention. This study aimed to identify intrinsic risk factors for falls in Pakistani elders living in the communities, and provide evidence for preventive strategies of falls in elderlies. Data were collected from 140 Muslim elders from two residential areas of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, from July 2022 to August 25, 2022, after taking permission from Zhengzhou University Ethical Review Board (ZUIRB #202254), and District Health Department Office (DHO #14207).Participants were informed and concern was taken before collect data. Data were collected using the Time Up and Go Test (TUGT), the Mini-Mental Status Examination, and interviews regarding the prayer practice. Factors associated with falls were; age, gender, education, cognitive status, TUGT level, incorrect prayer postures, poor vision, and history of falls with a significance of (P.<0.05). Poor cognition, low vision, poor walking speed, and prayers without body movements have good membership with falls risk prediction as (P<0.005) in Omnibus, Lemeshow score (0.77). Hence, our study provides a road map for future risk assessment for falls by adding the four mentioned risk factors as offered in the proposed model to facilitate taking timely action to prevent fall-related ailments in Pakistani elders.

The pandemic of obesity worldwide has been recognized as a very important challenge. Within its complexity the identification of higher risk patients becomes essential since it seems unsustainable trying to offer access to treatment to all people with obesity. Several new approaches have recently been presented as important tools for risk stratification. This research applied some of these tools in a cross-sectional study involving adults with obesity classes I, II, III and super obesity. The participants had their cardiometabolic risk profile assessed. The study included adults with obesity, aged 18 to 50 years (n=404) who were evaluated for anthropometric, body composition, hemodynamic, physical fitness and biochemical assessments. These variables were used to identify the prevalence of risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases according to the classes of obesity, by gender and age group. The results showed a high prevalence of risk factors, especially among the upper classes of obesity (BMI &gt; 35 kg/m2) using single parameters as the waist circumference with almost 90% above the cut-off point. But there were also smaller numbers as the Glycated Hemoglobin whose prevalence was around 30%. Indexes like the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) had the highest prevalence, with 100% of the male participants identified with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

Purpose: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recently published quality standards for assessment of fall risk and preventing further falls. According to the standards, multifactorial fall risk assessments should include: identification of falls history; analysis of gait, balance, mobility and muscle strength, among other factors. Despite being based on subjective analysis or simple timing and not being multifactorial, physiotherapists and physicians quite often use these tests as reference scales to differentiate between lower and higher risk of falling. Instrumented TUG has been recently reported to provide important additional information to the overall score. Objective: To explore a case-based approach of fall risk assessment to identify the most relevant and informative risk factors that in combination could better define a person risk profile. Materials and Methods: A multifactorial assessment of fall risk through questionnaires, standard functional tests, tests instrumented with inertial sensors, and force platforms has been studied within a group aged 55-80 years old. Different fall risk factors and fall risk assessment methods were analyzed in a case-based descriptive study. Results & Discussion: Subjects at higher risk of falling were identified based on their detailed profiles. A set of features were obtained from the instrumented standard tests differing significantly between subjects presenting higher or lower fall risk. Therefore, instrumenting conventional tests with wearables containing inertial sensors and force platforms gives more detailed and quantitative insights. This information can be used to better define and tailor fall prevention exercises and to improve the follow-up of the evolution of the subject.

The Internet of Things (IoT) continues to grow at a rapid pace, becoming integrated into the daily operations of individuals and organisations. IoT systems automate crucial services within daily life that users may rely on, which makes the assurance of security towards entities such as devices and information even more significant. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of papers that model cyber risk management processes within the context of IoT, and provide recommendations for further work. Using 39 collected papers, we studied IoT cyber risk management frameworks against four research questions that delve into cyber risk management concepts and human-orientated vulnerabilities. The importance of this work being human-driven is to better understand how individuals can affect risk and the ways that humans can be impacted by attacks within different IoT domains. Through the analysis, we identified open areas for future research and ideas that researchers should consider.

This study comprehensively explores Serbia's Disaster (Risk) Management System, aiming to critically evaluate its inherent strengths and weaknesses. Using descriptive-analytical methods and qualitative interpretation, SWOT analysis was applied to collect data from scientific papers, books, and institutional reports. This study delves deeply into the nuances of Serbia's Disaster Management Framework, revealing a nuanced landscape of strengths, weaknesses, and strategic improvement opportunities. Identified strengths underscore a robust foundation characterized by proficient professionals, state-of-the-art technology, and cohesive teamwork, all pivotal for effective emergency preparedness and response. Conversely, weaknesses underscore pressing imperatives for enhancements in regulatory enforcement, resource allocation, and infrastructure upgrades, presently hampering the framework's efficacy and response readiness. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on disaster risk management and serves as a catalyst for further scholarly inquiry and policy formulation. By mapping out the structure of Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management Framework and integrating diverse data sources, the study enriches theoretical models and lays the groundwork for practical policy interventions. Its findings, including precise recommendations for policy reform and strategic improvements, provide valuable insights for policymakers, emergency management experts, and stakeholders seeking to enhance disaster preparedness and response capabilities on both national and global scales.

COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) is a pandemic disease with an estimated mortality rate of 3.4% (estimated by the WHO as of March 3, 2020). Until now there is no antiviral drug and vaccine for COVID-19. The current overwhelming situation by COVID-19 patients in hospitals is likely to increase in the next few months. About 15 percent of patients with serious disease in COVID-19 require immediate health services. Rather than waiting for new anti-viral drugs or vaccines that take a few months to years to develop and test, several researchers and public health agencies are attempting to repurpose medicines that are already approved for another similar disease and have proved to be fairly effective. This study aims to identify FDA approved drugs that can be used for drug repurposing and identify biomarkers among high- risk and asymptomatic groups. In this study gene-disease association related to COVID-19 reported mild, severe symptoms and clinical outcomes were determined. The high-risk group was studied related to SARS-CoV-2 viral entry and life cycle by using Disgenet and compared with curated COVID-19 gene data sets from the CTD database. The overlapped gene sets were enriched and the selected genes were constructed for protein-protein interaction networks. Through interactome, key genes were identified for COVID-19 and also for high risk and asymptomatic groups. The key hub genes involved in COVID-19 were VEGFA, TNF, IL-6, CXCL8, IL10, CCL2, IL1B, TLR4, ICAM1, MMP9. The identified key genes were used for drug-gene interaction for drug repurposing. The chloroquine, lenalidomide, pentoxifylline, thalidome, sorafenib, pacitaxel, rapamycin, cortisol, statins were proposed to be probable drug repurposing candidates for the treatment of COVID-19. However, these predicted drug candidates need to be validated through randomized clinical trials. Also, a key gene involved in high risk and the asymptomatic group were identified, which can be used as probable biomarkers for early identification.

Background: Substance use continues to be on the rise in the United States and has been linked to new onset cardiovascular (CVDs) and cerebrovascular disorders (CeVDs) leading to hospitalizations. We aimed to study the association of different subtypes of substance use disorders (SUDs) among hospitalized patients, with the different subtypes of CVDs and CeVDs, using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) Database. Additionally, we aimed to assess the odds of hospitalizations with new onset CVDs and CeVDs among patients with different types of SUDs. Methods: A retrospective study of the NIS database (2016-2017) using the ICD-10-CM codes was performed. The hospitalizations with a secondary diagnosis of SUDs were identified. Weighted univariate analysis using the chi-square test and multivariate survey logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate for the incidence, prevalence, and odds of association between vascular events and SUDs. Results: There were a total of 58,259,589 hospitalizations, out of which 21.42% had SUDs. Out of all the hospitalized patients between the age 18-50, more patients had SUDs than not (31.83%, p< 0.0001). This difference existed for all the different subtypes of SUDs including alcohol related disorder (42.61%), amphetamine dependence (76.17% vs 31.83%), cannabis related disorder (75.17%), cocaine related disorders (57.87%), hallucinogen related disorder (82.91%), inhalant related disorders (67.25%), opioid related disorders (52.86%), and nicotine dependence (35.72%). We found a significant association of acute ischemic stroke with amphetamine dependence (OR 1.23, 95%CI 1.14-1.33), cocaine related disorders (1.17, 1.12-1.23) and nicotine dependence (1.42, 1.40-1.43). Similarly, the association of intracerebral hemorrhage was higher with amphetamine dependence (2.58, 2.26-2.93), and cocaine related disorders (1.62, 1.46-1.79). The association of subarachnoid hemorrhage was noted to be higher with amphetamine dependence (1.82, 1.48-2.24) and nicotine dependence (1.47, 1.39-1.55). In terms of association of cardiovascular disorders with SUDs,the patients with myocardial infarction had higher odds of nicotine dependence (1.85, 1.83-1.87) than not, Similarly, the patients with angina pectoris were noted to have a higher association with cocaine related disorders (2.21, 1.86-2.62), and those with atrial fibrillation had a higher association alcohol related disorders (1.14, 1.11-1.17). Conclusion: Our study demonstrates the variability of CVD and CeVD in patients hospitalized for SUD. Findings from our study may help promote increased awareness and early management of these events. Further studies are needed to evaluate specific effects of frequency and dose on the incidence and prevalence of CVD and CeVD in patients with SUD.

There are potentially promising mitigation activities for epidemic and pandemic scenarios that are not currently the subject of significant research effort. Large epidemics and pandemics pose risks that are important to mitigate, even if the likelihood of the events is low and uncertain. While some efforts are the subject of extensive funding and consideration, other approaches are neglected. Here, we consider such neglected interventions which could significantly reduce the impact of such an epidemic or large-scale pandemic. These are identified via a narrative literature review of extant literature reviews and overviews of mitigations in epidemic and pandemic situations, followed by consideration of the economic value of information of further study of heretofore neglected interventions and approaches.Based on that analysis, we considered several classes of mitigations, and conducted more exploratory reviews of each. Those discussed include mitigations for (1) reducing transmission, such as personal protective equipment and encouraging improved hygiene, (2) reducing exposure by changing norms and targeted changes for high-risk or critical professions and activities, (3) reducing impact for those infected, and (4) increasing large scale resilience using disaster and infrastructure continuity planning.Some proposed mitigations are found to be of low marginal value. Other mitigations are likely to be valuable, but the concepts or applications are underdeveloped. In those cases, further research, resources, or preparation are valuable for mitigating both routine and extreme disease outbreak events. Still more areas of research are identified as having uncertain value based on specific but resolvable uncertainties. In both of the latter cases, there is no guarantee that mitigations identified as worthy of further consideration will be valuable, but the argument for further research is clear.

This study examined the tail dependency structure of sovereign credit risk and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using copulas approach, which is known for its ability to provide the “true” tail correlation based on the correct marginal distribution. The empirical results show that global market risk sentiment comoves with sovereign CDS spreads across BRICS countries under extreme market events, with Brazil having the highest co-dependency followed by China, Russia, and South Africa. Furthermore, oil price volatility is the second biggest risk factor correlated with sovereign CDS spreads for Brazil and South Africa while exchange rate risk exhibits very small co-dependence with sovereign CDS spreads under extreme market conditions dominated by tail events. On the contrary, exchange rate risk is the second largest risk factor co-moving with China and Russia’s sovereign CDS spreads while oil price volatility exhibits the lowest co-dependence to CDS in these countries. Between oil price and currency risk, evidence of single risk factor dominance is found for Russia where exchange rate risk is largely dominant. These results suggest that BRICS policymakers might consider financial sector regulations that mitigate risks spill-over such as targeted capital controls when markets are distressed.

Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) is the integration of computation and physical process that makes a complete system such as the physical components, networked systems, embedded computers and software and linking together of devices and sensors for information sharing. Cyber Physical Systems are Smart Systems that comprises of the merging and integration of Industry Control Systems, Critical Infrastructures, Internet of Things (IoT) and Embedded Systems. Major industries such as the Chemical and Industrial Plants, Aviation Systems, National Grid, the Stock Exchange, Military Systems, and others depends heavily on these Cyber Physical Systems for financial and economic growth. The benefits of CPS nationally and globally are in the areas of Manufacturing, Energy, Transport, Healthcare and Communication. Cyber Physical Systems incorporates Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements on network infrastructures to provide interactive systems. However, these three key components the Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements may have inherent threats and vulnerabilities on them that may run the risk of being compromise, exploited, attacked or hacked. Cybercriminals in their quest to bring down these systems and may cause disruption of services either for fame, revenge, political motive, economic war, cyber terrorism and cyber war. The study seeks to review the risks that are associated with these three key components Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements. The study considered four main risk mitigation goals for this purpose, and these are Business Value, Organizational Requirements, Threat Agent and Impact based on the review results. We used Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these goals that contributes to developing cybercrime and rich in CPS. For the results, the prioritized goals are then used to assess the risks using a semi-quantitative approach to determine the net threat level.

Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore Government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme while maintaining its simplicity, we propose some plan modifications such that scheme members do not face a dichotomy of plan choices. Instead, they select two age parameters: the Payout Age and the Life-annuity Age. This paper provides an actuarial framework for determining members’ payouts and bequests based on the proposed age parameters. We analyze the net cash receipts and internal rate of return (IRR) for various plan-parameter configurations. This information helps members make their plan choices. To address cost-of-living increases we propose to extend the plan to accommodate an annual step-up of monthly payouts. By deferring the Payout Age from 65 to 68, members can enjoy an annual increase of about 2% of the payouts for the same first-year monthly benefits.

The population’s mobility in urban areas is a necessary variable in the modeling of risk scenarios caused by atmospheric contamination. The inclusion of this concept makes static models more dynamic while considering people within a city to be an entity with complex mobility processes. We propose a conceptual and methodological tool to make the representation of the social, economic and territorial components, as well as the patterns in the population´s mobility to delimitate risk areas for human health by exposure of contaminants. In the volatile organic compounds (VOC), benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene and xylene (BTEX) are amongst the most dominant substances in fugitive vapor emissions in gas stations (GS). In urban areas, the exposure to BTEX by residential proximity and proximity to other facilities, which cause intra-urban agglomeration, can impact and affect human health. This model seeks to facilitate the focalization, identification and prioritization of risk areas by BTEX environmental contamination. This article goes beyond de conceptual framework. It suggests methodological and instrumental aspects to be applied in other cities. The government agencies must consider these results when establishing rules, permissions and procedures to reduce environmental pollution for managing the risk in a complex urban environment.

This research aimed to figure out the applications of HbA1c protein and HbA1 gene as the prognostic biomarkers for assessing the risks of different cancers among male T2D patients in Bangladesh considering their serological and oncoinformatic parameters. Depending on the concentrations of HbA1c (%) of the T2D patients (n=300), their individual FBS (mmol/L); THABF (mmol/L); creatinine (mg/dl); SC (mg/dl); STGs (mg/dl); HDLC (mg/dl); and LDLC (mg/dl) were estimated. The values of the patients were compared with the control (n=60) group as the serological analysis. Besides, HbA1 gene (encoding hBA1c protein) overexpression and promotor methylation responsible for BLCA, BRCA, CHOL, COAD, LUAD, LUSC, PAAD, and PRAD cancers in the male T2D patients were profiled as the oncoinformatic parameters based on the sample types; caner stages; racial footprints; gender; age; nodal metastasis; p53 methylations; pancreatitis; diabetes status; smoking behaviors; and overall/disease-free survivability. Finally, the ‘HbA1 gene strings’ responsible for genetic coexpression; endophytic vesicle regulation; antioxidant regulation; oxygen species metabolic regulation; and gene-mediated response to the reactive oxygen molecules were studied comprehensively. A strong correlation between BMI and FBS was observed in both the patients and the control (P<0.0001). Similarly, the values of FBS, THABF, and creatinine resulted in equal significance (P<0.0001) as compared to the HbA1c concentrations of all the T2D and control individuals. The SC, STGs, HDLC, and LDLC concentrations regulated ardently in both the control (P<0.0001), and patients group (P<0.0001), while HbA1c ranged from 3.8-5.8%, and 5.11-15.8% respectively. HbA1 gene is found downregulating with cancer progressed in most of the oncoinformatic parameters. According to the DA, CS, EI, CE, PC, NC, GF, H, and AT profiles; the HbA1 gene interacts with 8 other genes responsible for creating a protein cluster comprising- AHSP, HBA1, HBA2, HBB, HBD, HBE1, HBG2, RPS12, and RPS19 proteins for cancer formation. To recapitulate, HbA1c protein and HbA1 gene can be used as the prognostic serological and molecular biomarkers respectively for determining the risks of cancers among male chronic T2D patients.

Cervical carcinogenesis is the leading cause of cancer related death in women and the role of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) as a possible risk factor in the development of this cancer is well recognised. Despite the availability of multi-therapeutic approaches, there is still a major concern regarding the prevention of metastatic dissemination and excessive tissue injuries. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a safer and more efficient treatment modality. Ficus Carica, a natural plant, has shown potential therapeutic properties through its fruit latex when applied to HPV-positive cervical cancer cell lines. However, the mechanisms of action of Ficus Carica (fig) latex are not well understood. This study aims to provide a deeper insight into the biological activities of fig latex on human cervical cancer cell lines expressing high-risk HPV types 16 and 18. The data obtained from this study reveals that fig latex influences the expression of genes in-volved in "Class I MHC-mediated antigen presentation" as well as "Antigen processing: Ubiquitination and Proteasome degradation." These genes play a crucial role in host immune surveillance and the resolution of infection. Findings from this study suggest that fig latex may enhance T cell responses against oncogenic HPV, which could be beneficial for the clearance of early-stage cancer.

Obesity is a worldwide epidemic; hence it is crucial to understand how it can be effectively prevented/treated. Thus, obesity should be tackled considering that it is a multifactorial condition. This work examines a wide range of factors and attempts to understand which contribute most to variability in overweight/obesity. Eighty-four subjects with overweight/obesity were recruited. Dietary baseline information was obtained by analyzing three 24-hour recalls. Resting metabolic rate was measured using indirect calorimetry, physical activity through accelerometry, cardiometabolic parameters were determined in blood samples and body composition by anthropometry and bioimpedance. Factor analysis of principal components (PCA) was carried out (SPSS v22.0). Large interindividual variability was observed in dietetic, biochemical, and physical activity measurements (coefficient of variation ≥30%), but body composition was homogeneous. Volunteers had an unbalanced diet and low physical activity. PCA reduced the 26 analyzed variables into 7 factors, accounting for 81,5% of total data variability. The main factor was the ‘‘caloric and lipid factor’’ related to diet, responsible for 25.9% of total variability, followed by ‘‘adiposity factor’’ (16,9%) and ‘‘cardiometabolic risk factor’’ (13,2%). Diet seems to be the factor that contributes the most to data variability in people with overweight/obesity, especially the intake of lipids, energy and proteins.

Background: In March 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak associated with the Falles Festival in Borriana, Spain, led to significant infections. Methods: In June 2022, we conducted a cross-sectional follow-up study of 473 socially engaged adults aged 18 to 64, examining the cumulative experience after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination responses. Data included demographic details, lifestyle habits, medical history, infection records, and vaccinations from a population-based vaccine registry. Blood samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and cellular immunity. We employed a doubly robust inverse weighted probability analysis to estimate the booster vaccine dose's impact on long COVID prevalence and symptom count. Results: 28.1% of participants met the WHO criteria for long COVID, with older individuals showing higher rates. Not complying with long COVID criteria associated with factors including O blood group, higher occupational status, physical activity, three vaccine doses, strong SARS-CoV-2-S-reactive IFNγ‐producing‐CD8+ response, and infection during the Omicron period. Conversely, increased age, high or low social activity, underlying health conditions, a severe initial COVID episode, and reinfection associated with higher long COVID likelihood. A booster dose, compared to one or two doses, reduced long COVID risk by 74% (95% CI: 56.4% to 91.7%) and symptom count by 55.2% (95% CI: 31.6% to 78.7%). Conclusion: Long COVID was prevalent in a significant portion of those who contracted COVID-19, underscoring the need for sustained follow-up and therapeutic strategies. Vaccinations, notably the booster dose, had a substantial beneficial effect on long-term infection outcomes, affirming the vaccination’s role in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 infection consequences.

Flooding in Nigeria has recently acquired a new dimension and turned into a significant concern in terms of the total amount of property destroyed and the number of people affected. Flooding is one of the top ten natural disasters in the globe. The frequent flooding in Nigeria, which is often related to climate change and poor urban design, is a major worry from the standpoint of the country's development. Flooding and other related threats are becoming more likely to affect infrastructure and population.Neighbourhoods around the nation are increasingly more significantly impacted. Populations and infrastructure are significantly impacted by urban facilities encroaching on floodplains and low implementation of physical planning requirements for floodplain management and waterway development. Because of this, livelihoods are less able to repair after a storm. The nation's rapid urbanisation and population growth have raised the danger of flooding to both people and properties. Critically, a major obstacle to risk control is a lack of understanding of the risk. As a result, there is a significant knowledge vacuum regarding how to improve current efforts to solve the problems caused by Nigeria's floods as efforts to address the threat appear to be limited.

As people's consumption habits change, loan plays a crucial role in our modern society. It provides individuals who do not have sufficient money with funds to purchase residential property or start a business. However, for avoiding unpleasant loan defaults, all financial institutions will first assess the borrower's risk index. By predicting the default risk of the borrower to decide whether to lend money. Machine learning algorithms, including random forest, linear regression and so on, have been benefited most of the real-world applications. With the development of machine learning methods, this paper, based on the personal history loan data of an institution studies the loan default risk, and uses the random forest classification model to predict the possibility of loan default. The result showed that the accuracy of this method was 85.62%, which show its application ability of real-world loan prediction and benefits the manager to decide the degree of risk for loan grant.

The article focuses on the integrated environmental accounting model called 'eValue', developed for protected areas and applied in the research programme coordinated by the Italian Ministry of the Environment and aimed at implementing an environmental accounting system for Italian Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). eValue adopts a cost-benefit analysis approach. Financial accounting based on costs and revenues is integrated with environmental accounting, which reflects environmental costs and environmental revenues, i.e. environmental benefits. The environ-mental costs assess the impacts related to human activities in the MPA expressed by calculating the carbon footprint and the environmental benefits of the marine ecosystem services calculated by applying monetary valuation techniques. The values thus estimated flow into the annual flow account, where the value produced (or consumed) by the MPA is estimated by difference. The eValue model was applied to the Porto Cesareo MPA (Italy). eValue showed that the annual benefit-cost ratio reaches a value of 3.4. Furthermore, the ratio of net benefit to public funding is 3.7, completely covering the amount of public transfers and thus summarizing the MPA overall value for money.

Facing unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, the 15^th UN Biodiversity Conference (COP-15) in Kunming, China, presents an opportunity for transformative change. However, a lack of consensus on two key issues – resource mobilization and Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS) associated with Digital Sequence Information (DSI) – risks stalling negotiations for an ambitious ‘Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework’ as the next 10-year strategic plan under the Convention on Biological Diversity. We highlight systemic misconceptions concerning the financing of biodiversity and the burden this places on the ABS system. In the context of DSI, we caution that conflating ABS with resource mobilization risks disrupting modern science policy built on open access, with potentially severe ramifications for scientific research and innovation. To resolve these tensions, we call for a recalibration of discussions on ABS in order to maximize the value delivered by biodiversity for all of society, including indigenous peoples and local communities.

Light and heat resources are ample in Xinjiang plain oasis region. Planting structure is single in irrigation area, which leads to severe seasonal water shortages due to high concentration of water utilization. Therefore, how to make full use of light and heat resources to develop oasis agriculture without expanding planting scale has become the focus of research. The biannual cropping patterns are possible solutions to the problem. Manas River Irrigation area, which is located on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang in China is regarded as a typical case study to analyze the suitable planting structure and planting scale for biannual cropping pattern. The effects of optimizing planting patterns on alleviating the contradiction between water supply and water need，and the efficiency of water resources utilization was also studied. The results of the study show that：(1) the suitable planting scales of Manas River irrigation area in wet year (P = 25%), normal year (P = 50%), and low flow year (P = 75%) are about 72.66%, 78.73% and 83.91% of the current planting scale. (2) After the planting structure was optimized, the water use process in the irrigation area extends from May to August at present to April to November. The water use ratio at the peak period of water use decreased from 0.847 to 0.601, and the water use peak was significantly dispersed. (3) Economic benefits per cubic metre of water of the biannual cropping patterns increased from 8.65 yuan·m⁻³ at present to 9.45 yuan·m⁻³, 10.31 yuan·m⁻³ and 11.43 yuan·m⁻³ in wet year (P = 25%), in normal year (P = 50%) and low flow year (P = 75%) respectively, which proved that replanting crops could improve the efficiency of water resources utilization in irrigated areas. Therefore, the optimal planting pattern can be implemented to improve the utilization efficiency of soil and water resources in irrigation area in the arid oasis with single planting pattern with excessive concentration of water use peak and serious water shortage.

Commercial development of tidal stream energy is hampered by technical and financial challenges, and impeded by uncertainty about potential environmental effects that drive environmental risk assessments and permitting (consenting) processes. The effect of greatest concern for operational tidal stream energy devices is the potential for marine animals to collide with turbine blades, resulting in injury or death. Due to the turbulent and often turbid waters that frequently characterize tidal turbine sites, there is an absence of empirical evidence about collisions with marine animals. This paucity of observations often leads to risk-averse permitting decisions that further restrict the deployment of tidal energy devices that are needed to collect this evidence. This paper relies on the framework of stressors and receptors that is used widely in marine energy studies and outlines a stepwise probabilistic methodology that applies existing knowledge to further elucidate the risk to marine animals from operational tidal turbines. A case study using striped bass from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, accompanies the methodology, to partially demonstrate its application.

Understanding how the public perceives various risks and hazards associated with our well-being and health is crucial for government and policymakers. The present research aimed to assess the public's perception of various risks and hazards associated with their well-being and health. The study combined two well-known approaches to risk assessment, namely, the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and the psychometric paradigm. Seven risk attributes were chosen from the risk perception literature to evaluate 27 risks and hazard activities using a survey questionnaire developed based on the psychometric paradigm literature. The collected data was then analyzed using AHP to determine the priority weight for each risk attribute. The results showed that the most important risk attribute was voluntariness of risk, followed by chronic-catastrophic and newness of risk. Furthermore, the study found that natural hazards were ranked the highest, followed by refugee influx and fire hazards. In contrast, the mobile phone was perceived as the lowest type of risk. The findings can be used by policymakers to develop effective and sustainable risk communication strategies. Policymakers can use the research findings to create effective and sustainable risk communication strategies that help the government to inform and educate the public about potential risks, improve coordination among agencies and stakeholders, and enhance public trust in government decision-making.

Background: Current European guidelines support transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TA-VI) in intermediate to low-risk patients ≥75 years-old but its prognostic relevance is unknown. Methods: Intermediate-to-low-risk (Society of Thoracic Surgeon score <8%) patients enrolled in the HORSE registry were included. We compared the population with less versus more than 75 years old. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Results: A total of 2685 patients were included, 280 (8.6%) <75 and 2405 ≥75 years. Through a mean follow-up of 437 ± 381 days, 198 (8.2%) and 23 (8.2%) patients died in the two arms, without statistically significant differences (log-rank p=0.925). At Cox regression analysis, age did not predict the occurrence of all-cause death, neither as a continuous variable (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04, p=0.294) nor dichotomizing according to the prespecified cutoff of 75 years (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.63-1.51p=0.924). Time-to-event ROC curves showed low accuracy of age to predict all-cause mortality (area under the curve of 0.54 for both 1-year and 2-year outcomes). Conclusions: TAVI has comparable benefits across age strata in intermediate-to-low risk patients. The age cut-off suggested by current guidelines is not predictive of the risk of adverse events during hospital stay, neither of all-cause mortality through a mid-term follow-up.

Across the global construction industry, fatalities continue to occur from high-risk activities where the risk controls have been defined, however were unreliable. In the mining industry, Critical Control Risk Management has provided positive results in reducing major accidents, which raises the question, could the Critical Control approach reduce the fatality rate in the construction industry? This study analysed 10 years of serious and fatal incident investigation reports from four international construction companies to i) assess the reliability of their Critical Controls (CCs) and ii) assess the factors which affect the reliability of CCs. The results show the reliability of CCs, measured by implementation and effectiveness, averaged just 42%. Human performance factors including risk identification, decision-making and competency together with supervision, job planning, communication organisational factors were identified as affecting the reliability of CCs. The study used bow-tie diagrams with real event data to find the actual CC effectiveness. This gave actionable findings directly related to individual CCs enabling the participating organization to focus resources on improving specific verification processes. The results confirm the applicability of CCs for the Major Accident Event hazards analyzed and highlights further review is required of the factors which need to be considered when implementing a CC program. This paper details our methodology and results, to assist others apply CCs as a risk management tool.

Metabolic syndrome (MS), a complex pathology with features like abnormal body fat distribution, insulin resistance, and dyslipidaemia, contributes to higher cardiovascular (CV) risk. A cross-sectional study including 87 individuals, assessed CV risk in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes and MS in Algarve, Portugal. The 10-year CV risk was estimated using the ADVANCE risk score calculator. The reductions in CV risk were estimated by adjusting the data inputted on the online tool to achieve systolic blood pressure (SBP) <130 or <120 mmHg, and LDL-cholesterol <70 mg/dL. Beyond waist circumference, the mean number of clinical features of MS was 3.14±0.84, without significant sex differences. The mean CV risk was 22.5% (CI: 20.3-24.7). Sex-specific analysis showed higher risk in males (24.2%, CI: 21.3-27.0) vs. females (19.7%, CI: 16.2-23.3; p=0.028). Hypothetical risk reductions show that lowering SBP to <130 mmHg could significantly lower the risk by an average of 9.2% (CI: 7.7-10.7), whereas 34.5% of the participants would be out of the diagnostic criteria for MS. When comparing each potential intervention with current risk, all interventions significantly reduce the 10-years CV risk. The study highlights the potential of blood pressure control in reducing CV risk and the importance of multifaceted risk reduction strategies.

The conformity assessment of products or a measured value with the given standards is carried out based on the global risk of producers and consumers calculation. A product may conform to specifications but be falsely rejected as non-conforming. This is about the producer's risk. If a product doesn't meet the requirements but is falsely accepted as conforming, that poses a risk to the consumer. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which yields only a single numerical value for the global risk of producers and consumers, is naturally extended, and utilized for assessing risk in measurement models with linear regression. The outcomes of the two-dimensional extension, along a moderate scale, are the parabolas with an opening upwards. Risk surfaces were obtained through three-dimensional extension over the area limited by the moderate scale and guard band axes. Four models with different ranges of tolerance intervals were used to test this innovative method of risk assessment in linear regression. The corresponding standard measurement uncertainties are determined by applying a simplified measurement model with the use of comprehensive data on the measurement performance and by determining measurement uncertainty derived from consideration of the functional relationship obtained by linear regression analysis. Models that utilize information from linear regression analysis to determine measurement uncertainty are biased towards risks at the edges of the moderate scale. Testing the model's performances with metrics related to the confusion matrix, such as the F1 score, further substantiated this assertion. The diagnostic odds ratio has been proven to be extremely effective in identifying the curve along the guard band axis, along which the global risks of producers and consumers are at their lowest.

The variety of risks due to climate change with a potential impact on Cultural Heritage CH requires a multidisciplinary approach and a preliminary overview of the existing methods for risk analysis and assessment in different fields. Thus, the starting point of the research conducted by the Sapienza PNRR working group consists in a systematic literature review of risk assessment approaches, methods and indicators. As a first outcome, the research has designed a multidisciplinary comprehensive framework consisting of the definition of risk categorization, the framework represented by a measurable index and the main target, according to the classification of Cultural Heritage based on the harmonization of European vocabularies definitions and protocols. The risk assessment framework sets the methodological core of a future multi criteria matrix and digital platform for decision focused on the historic built environment and it is functional to the definition of specific operational guidelines connected to each risk for elaborating descriptive/predictive Architectural Heritage’s transformation scenarios to support the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Arborists commonly investigate the extent of stem decay to assess the likelihood of stem failure when conducting tree risk assessments. Studies have shown that (i) arborists can sometimes judge the extent of internal decay based on external signs; (ii) sophisticated tools can reliably illustrate the extent of internal decay; and (iii) assessing components of tree risk can be highly subjective. We recruited 18 experienced tree risk assessors who held the International Society of Arboriculture’s Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ) to assess the likelihood of stem failure due to decay after each of 5 consecutive assessments on 30 individuals of 2 genera. Five assessment techniques, in stepwise order, were 1) visual, 2) sounding the trunk with a mallet, 3) viewing a scaled diagram of the cross-section that revealed sound and decayed wood ascertained from resistance drilling, 4) viewing sonic and electrical resistance tomograms, and 5) consulting with a peer. For each technique, assessors assigned two or more likelihood of failure ratings (LoFRs) for at least 83% of trees, which were proportionally greatest after assessors viewed tomograms; the proportions did not differ among the other four assessment techniques. Covariates that influenced the distribution of LoFRs included percent of the cross-section that was decayed, and assessors’ experience using resistance drilling devices and tomography in regular practice. Practitioners should be aware that disagreement on the likelihood of tree failure exists even among experienced arborists.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

This study presents a detailed assessment on the impact of the Brazilian legal framework related to the access and benefit sharing provisions of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. The research is based on a comprehensive dataset that was systematically collected over several years, directly from the official government bodies responsible for its implementation. The aim of the study is to contribute to a fact-based discussion on the effectiveness of national ABS laws, focusing on the Brazilian legal framework, first established in the year 2000 and revised in 2015, as a case example. This study balances the costs and benefits of the Brazilian ABS system and assesses the regulatory challenges it poses to individuals, companies, and institutions that perform research, share knowledge, develop, manufacture or market products derived from Brazilian biodiversity. The study indicates that, after over 22 years of operation, the regulatory challenges are still real and relevant, and that the significant volume of data collected from users on access, prior commercialization and shipment of genetic materials abroad was never systematically assessed by the agencies in charge. Besides, it shows that the costs incurred by the government in managing the policy itself have been higher than the economic benefits it has made possible, and that the institutional mechanisms in place since 2015 have not been able to allocate the monetary benefits contributed by users to the National Benefit Sharing Fund to any projects aimed at developing sustainable uses or preserving Brazilian biodiversity.

This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high, medium, and low scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches that include Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the best option closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.

The study assessed the risk perception, attitude, and management tools of 260 randomly selected farmers and processors in the rice value chain using data elicited via a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent (ELCE) technique, Binary logistic regression, and a 5-point Likert scale were employed in the data analyses. Descriptive statistics show that the respondents are young, active, and in their productive age with an intermediate education level. Majority of the farmers and processors were risk averse. Risk aversion was common among farmers and processors. Farmers' risk attitudes and perceptions of risk are significantly influenced by a number of factors, including age, access to extension services, farm size, marital status, household size, education, income, training, and experience. Majority of rice farmers consider price risk as the most important risk while majority of processors perceive production risk as the most important risk. Pests and diseases, price fluctuation, drought, and lack of input were the most important source of risk to farmers, while processors perceived price fluctuation, technology adoption, and poor storage facilities as the most important source of risk. Off-farm investment, spraying for pests and diseases, cash contribution, market information, and cooperative were the important risk mitigating management strategies employed by the farmers/processors. The study suggests improvements in the identified risk sources, which could influence the attitude and perception of the farmers and processors.