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Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia
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Abstract
LiFePO4 (LFP) or Lithium-ion battery with its advantages compared to common current motorcycle battery is an appropriate alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. Huge amount of demand of motorcycle along with the battery in Indonesia also make it an interesting product for business. In order to assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using NPV, IRR and PBP indicators have been conducted in this study. Calculation using markov chain method shows that LFP battery tends to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also figures out that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions - first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for LFP battery especially in Indonesia.
Keywords:
Subject: Engineering - Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Submitted:
04 May 2018
Posted:
04 May 2018
You are already at the latest version
Alerts
A peer-reviewed article of this preprint also exists.
This version is not peer-reviewed
Submitted:
04 May 2018
Posted:
04 May 2018
You are already at the latest version
Alerts
Abstract
LiFePO4 (LFP) or Lithium-ion battery with its advantages compared to common current motorcycle battery is an appropriate alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. Huge amount of demand of motorcycle along with the battery in Indonesia also make it an interesting product for business. In order to assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using NPV, IRR and PBP indicators have been conducted in this study. Calculation using markov chain method shows that LFP battery tends to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also figures out that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions - first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for LFP battery especially in Indonesia.
Keywords:
Subject: Engineering - Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia
Wahyudi Sutopo
et al.
Technologies,
2018
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Guohao Li
et al.
Sustainability,
2022
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