Preprint
Review

Firm's Credit Risk in the Presence of Market Structural Breaks

Altmetrics

Downloads

292

Views

170

Comments

0

A peer-reviewed article of this preprint also exists.

Haipeng Xing  *,‡,
Yang Yu  ‡

  ‡ These authors contributed equally to this work.

This version is not peer-reviewed

Submitted:

25 September 2018

Posted:

27 September 2018

You are already at the latest version

Alerts
Abstract
Various sudden shifts in financial market conditions over the past decades have demonstrated the significant impact of market structural breaks on firms' credit behavior. To characterize such effect quantitatively, we develop a continuous-time modulated Markov model for firms' credit rating transitions with the possibility of market structural breaks. The model takes a semi-parametric multiplicative regression form, in which the effects of firms' observable covariates and macroeconomic variables are represented parametrically and nonparametrically, respectively, and the frailty effects of unobserved firm-specific and market-wide variables are incorporated via the integration form of the model assumption. We further develop a mixtured-estimating-equation approach to make inference on the effect of market variations, baseline intensities of all firms' credit rating transitions, and rating transition intensities for each individual firm. We then use the developed model and inference procedure to analyze the monthly credit rating of U.S. firms from January 1986 to December 2012, and study the effect of market structural breaks on firms' credit rating transitions.
Keywords: 
Subject: Business, Economics and Management  -   Econometrics and Statistics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2024 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated