Conflict between agricultural water resources and socio-economy development is a global problem. Accurate evaluation of coordinated development of agricultural water resources and socio-economy and risk mitigation is necessary for sustainable development. An evaluation method, including selection of criteria, data collection, determination of weight, evaluation of coordinated development, prediction of parameters, and judgment of coordinated development state, has been proposed to study coordinated development degree. To deal with uncertainties, Monte Carlo method and fuzzy set method were used. The method is demonstrated to solve a real-world evaluation problem in Shanxi Province in the middle of China. Results show that coordinated development degrees were (0.7, 0.8) for most of the cities of Shanxi in 2015, indicating that coordinate development state was intermediate coordinate. To achieve balanced development, more attention should be put on socio-economic development in Taiyuan and Yanquan, and agricultural water resources utilization in Jinzhong, Yuncheng and Xinzhou. The average coordinated development degree is 0.758, and coordinate development state was intermediate coordinate from 2006 to 2015. Coordinated development degree has a trend of decreasing markedly, coordinate development state will be barely coordinated, and agricultural water resources utilization lags behind socio-economic development in 2020. The study demonstrates the practicability of the improved method, by evaluating coordinated development degree under uncertainty and forecasting future risks, which will conduce to promote sustainable development of agricultural water resources and socio-economy.