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Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

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Submitted:

15 April 2020

Posted:

16 April 2020

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Abstract
Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a small fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (19.5%; 95%CI=0%-34.7%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that the first set of restrictions reduced transmission rate in the community by 42% (95%CI=38%-46%), and that more stringent measures adopted on 23 March succeeded to drastically curb the transmission rate by 84% (95%CI=80%-88%). Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Further modeling after the adoption of control measures, moreover, indicated that restrictions reduced SARS-CoV2 transmission considerably.
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Subject: Medicine and Pharmacology  -   Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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