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Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Spreading in India by an Epidemiological Model and Fractional Differential Operator

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Submitted:

15 May 2020

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16 May 2020

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Abstract
Fractional differential mathematical model unfolding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in India is presented and explored in this paper. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future outbreak of disease and potential control strategies using mathematical models in India as a whole country as well as in some of the states of the country. This model is calibrated based on reported cases of infections over the month of April 2020 in India. We have used iterative fractional complex transform method to find approximate solutions of the model having modified Riemann Liouville fractional differential operator. We have also carried out a comparative analysis between actual and estimated cumulative cases graphically, moreover, most sensitive parameters for basic reproduction number$(R_0)$ are computed and their effect on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic is investigated in detail.
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Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics  -   Applied Mathematics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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