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Estimation of Time-Dependent Reproduction Number for Global COVID-19 Outbreak

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Preprints on COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2

Submitted:

22 June 2020

Posted:

24 June 2020

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Abstract

Real-time estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is important for optimization quarantine interventions during outbreaks. One of the most significant parameters is the effective reproduction number - number of secondary cases produced by a single infection. The current study presents an approach for estimating the effective reproduction number and its application to COVID-19 outbreak. The method is based on fitting SIR epidemic model to observation data in a sliding time window and allows to show real-time dynamics of reproduction number at any phase of epidemic for countries globally. Online data on COVID-19 daily cases of infections, recoveries, deaths are used.Finally, time-dependent reproduction number is explored in connection with dynamics of peoples mobility. The method allows to assess the disease transmission potential and understand the effect of interventions on epidemics spread. It also can be easily adapted to future outbreaks of different pathogens. The tool is available online as Python code from the Github repository.

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Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics - Computational Mathematics

Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.