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Defining and Computing Reproduction Numbers to Monitor the Outbreak of Covid-19 or Other Epidemics

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Submitted:

15 February 2021

Posted:

16 February 2021

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Abstract
We present a general approach to define reproduction ratios or numbers to monitor the outbreak of epidemics that are modeled by mathematical evolution equations. This provides a solution to an important topic that has not been completely settled in the literature, especially in the case of complex epidemiological models. We illustrate our procedure with a full implementation of a standard deterministic SEIR model that is applied to examine the Covid-19 outbreaks and the effects of intervention measures in several countries in America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, USA) and Europe (France, Italy, Spain and UK) in 2020. Our code is also used to investigate herd immunity levels for Covid-19, indicating values between 85% and 90%.
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Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics  -   Computational Mathematics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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