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Future Projection of Flood Dynamics in Demak, Indonesia

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Submitted:

11 May 2021

Posted:

12 May 2021

Withdrawn:

13 May 2021

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Abstract
Indonesia as an area inhabited by a large population (60%), the coastal area is experiencing rapid development. Rapid development increases hazard vulnerability in coastal areas due to the combination of coastal hazard and fluvial flood. This study aims to show various inundation hazard in Demak coastal areas in the future due to sea-level rise, surge, storm wind-waves, land subsidence and river discharge. Eight scenarios are modeled using one or a combination of each factors. The effect of storm tides and long-period forcing was compared. Result shows that storm tides have a significant effect on increasing inundation depth, while the long period forcing more susceptible to increase the inundation area. Land subsidence was identified as the main contributor to coastal inundation. Other driving factors accounted for only 15% of the increase in inundation area under springtide conditions, but their contribution was much higher in increasing the inundation depth. Small change in the water level and land surface in the low-lying areas can make a significant difference in inundation damage. This study is expected to provide a better understanding of multiple flood driver impacts on the flood hazard and utilized further for mitigation strategies in Demak Regency.
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Subject: Environmental and Earth Sciences  -   Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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