Preprint
Article

Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations

This version is not peer-reviewed.

Submitted:

03 October 2021

Posted:

04 October 2021

You are already at the latest version

A peer-reviewed article of this preprint also exists.

Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs). However, several studies have dealt with geographically distributed PVs in a certain area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.
Keywords: 
;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

Downloads

286

Views

311

Comments

0

Subscription

Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.

Email

Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2025 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated