Cosme, M.; Hély, C.; Pommereau, F.; Pasquariello, P.; Tiberi, C.; Treydte, A.; Gaucherel, C. Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna. Land2022, 11, 42.
Cosme, M.; Hély, C.; Pommereau, F.; Pasquariello, P.; Tiberi, C.; Treydte, A.; Gaucherel, C. Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna. Land 2022, 11, 42.
Cosme, M.; Hély, C.; Pommereau, F.; Pasquariello, P.; Tiberi, C.; Treydte, A.; Gaucherel, C. Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna. Land2022, 11, 42.
Cosme, M.; Hély, C.; Pommereau, F.; Pasquariello, P.; Tiberi, C.; Treydte, A.; Gaucherel, C. Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna. Land 2022, 11, 42.
Abstract
Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.
Keywords
ecosystem dynamics; discrete-event model; qualitative modelling; boolean model; state-and-transition model
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.