Preprint
Article
Benchmark of Holt-Winters and SARIMA Methods in Predicting Jakarta Climate
This version is not peer-reviewed.
Submitted:
28 April 2022
Posted:
29 April 2022
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
As its capital, Jakarta plays a critical role in boosting Indonesia’s economic growth and setting the precedent for broader change outside of the city. One crucial avenue of inquiry to better understand, and prepare for, the future of a country so heavily impacted by disastrous weather events is understanding the effects of climate change through data. This study investigates meteorological data collected from 1996 to 2021 and compares the application of the SARIMA and the Holt-Winters methods to predict the future influence of climatic parameters on Jakarta’s weather. The performance of the SARIMA method is proven to provide better results than the Holt-Winter models and both methods showed the best performances when forecasting the humidity data. The results of the forecast are able to demonstrate the characteristic of the climate in Jakarta, with dry season ranging from May to October and wet season ranging from November to April.
Keywords:
Forecasting
; SARIMA
; Holt-Winters
; Climate
; Big Data
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Downloads
355
Views
288
Comments
0
Subscription
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
MDPI Initiatives
Important Links
© 2025 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated