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Stability and Sensitivity Analysis of the COVID-19 Spread with Comorbid Diseases

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Submitted:

17 October 2022

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17 October 2022

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Abstract
This research investigates a model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia by analyzing comorbid diseases, self-quarantine, government-provided quarantine, and immunization regimens. Some model parameters are derived from academic journals, others are extrapolated from data collected by the Indonesian Ministry of Health in 2020, and others are assumed. Evaluation of the model reveals non-endemic equilibrium points, endemic equilibrium points, and the basic reproduction number (BRN). The contact rate and infected probability factors impact the increase in the number of COVID-19-infected individuals with comorbid disease within a group. According to the sensitivity analysis of the BRN, the key parameters impacting the spread of COVID-19 are the rate of susceptible recruitment, the rate of contact, the COVID-19 infection death rate, and the likelihood of infection. In addition, sensitivity analyses are provided to examine the effect of parameter changes on subpopulations. We discovered that the natural death rate is the most sensitive parameter based on the sensitivity index after reaching equilibrium. Symmetry aspects appear in some of the visualization of the model’s solution and the BRN and parameters’ sensitivity.
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Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics  -   Applied Mathematics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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