Prasad-Rao, J.; Pinon Fischer, O.J.; Rowe, N.C.; Williams, J.R.; Puranik, T.G.; Mavris, D.N.; Natali, M.W.; Tindall, M.J.; Atkinson, B.W. Attrition Risk and Aircraft Suitability Prediction in U.S. Navy Pilot Training Using Machine Learning. Aerospace2023, 10, 379.
Prasad-Rao, J.; Pinon Fischer, O.J.; Rowe, N.C.; Williams, J.R.; Puranik, T.G.; Mavris, D.N.; Natali, M.W.; Tindall, M.J.; Atkinson, B.W. Attrition Risk and Aircraft Suitability Prediction in U.S. Navy Pilot Training Using Machine Learning. Aerospace 2023, 10, 379.
Prasad-Rao, J.; Pinon Fischer, O.J.; Rowe, N.C.; Williams, J.R.; Puranik, T.G.; Mavris, D.N.; Natali, M.W.; Tindall, M.J.; Atkinson, B.W. Attrition Risk and Aircraft Suitability Prediction in U.S. Navy Pilot Training Using Machine Learning. Aerospace2023, 10, 379.
Prasad-Rao, J.; Pinon Fischer, O.J.; Rowe, N.C.; Williams, J.R.; Puranik, T.G.; Mavris, D.N.; Natali, M.W.; Tindall, M.J.; Atkinson, B.W. Attrition Risk and Aircraft Suitability Prediction in U.S. Navy Pilot Training Using Machine Learning. Aerospace 2023, 10, 379.
Abstract
The cost to train a basic qualified U.S. Navy fighter aircraft pilot is nearly $10M. The training includes primary, intermediate, and advanced stages, with the advanced stage involving extensive flight training and being very expensive as a result. Despite the screening tests in place and early-stage attrition taking place, 4.5% of aviators undergo attrition in this most expensive stage. Key reasons for aviator attrition include poor flight scores, voluntary withdrawals, and medical causes. Reduction in late-stage attrition offers several financial and operational benefits to the U.S. Navy. To that end, this research leverages feature extraction and machine-learning techniques on the very sparse flight test grades of student aviators to identify those with a high risk of attrition early in training. Using about 10 years of historical U.S. Navy pilot training data, trained models accurately predicted 50% of attrition with a 4% false positive rate. Such models could help the U.S. Navy save nearly $20M a year in attrition costs. In addition, machine-learning models were trained that can recommend a suitable training aircraft type for each student aviator. These capabilities could help better answer the need for pilots and reduce the time and cost to train them.
Computer Science and Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
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