1. Introduction

2. Literature Review and Theoretical Analysis

3. Materials and Methods

3.3. Green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation of provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, from a national perspective

Overall, from 2010 to 2021, the green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation of provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, viewed from a national perspective, exhibited a negative growth trend. Moreover, the average annual index of green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation of the Belt and Road provinces was lower than the national average. Specifically, the average annual index of green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation of the entire country from 2010 to 2021 was 0.9915, with an average annual decline rate of 0.85%. For the Belt and Road provinces during the same period, the average annual index of green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation was 0.9923, with an average annual decline rate of 0.77%.

Figure 3-1. Green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation of provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, from a national perspective.

Figure 3-1. Green total factor productivity in the agricultural product circulation of provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, from a national perspective.

From the changes in the index of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation, the overall situation is not optimistic. Moreover, from 2010 to 2021, the index of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation of provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative was mostly lower than the national index, and it exhibited significant fluctuations. Specifically, in the years 2011, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, the index of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation of the Belt and Road provinces was below 1, indicating a deterioration in the green total factor productivity of agricultural product circulation. In the remaining years, the green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation showed some improvement to a certain extent. After 2019, the provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative experienced an upward trend in green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation.

3.4. Green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation in provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative.

As provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, our country acts as both the promoter and participant of the initiative. Agriculture, being one of its important economic pillars, has a significant impact on the development of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation. The initiative was proposed at the end of 2013, and this study will analyze the development of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation in provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative during two periods: pre-initiative (2010-2013) and post-initiative (2014-2021).

Table 3-1. Green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation in provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Table 3-1. Green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation in provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Province	2010—2013			2014—2021
	GTFPCH	GTC	GEC	GTFPCH	GTC	GEC
Inner Mongolia	1.098	1.110	0.988	0.916	1.000	0.916
Liaoning	1.054	1.069	0.986	0.960	0.957	1.003
Jilin	0.972	0.964	1.008	1.000	1.023	0.978
Heilongjiang	1.072	1.107	0.968	0.929	1.000	0.929
Shanghai	1.002	1.000	1.002	1.000	1.000	1.000
Zhejiang	1.035	0.968	1.069	0.981	0.975	1.006
Fujian	1.015	1.005	1.009	0.984	0.984	1.000
Guangdong	1.029	0.996	1.033	0.954	0.970	0.983
Guangxi	1.002	1.013	0.988	0.952	0.954	0.999
Hainan	1.047	0.971	1.078	0.994	1.036	0.959
Chongqing	1.031	1.022	1.009	0.985	0.995	0.990
Yunnan	1.028	1.047	0.982	0.970	0.960	1.010
Shaanxi	1.003	0.986	1.017	0.994	1.002	0.992
Gansu	1.013	1.027	0.986	0.979	0.978	1.001
Qinghai	1.008	1.004	1.003	1.001	1.024	0.978
Ningxia	0.952	0.947	1.005	0.988	0.995	0.993
Xinjiang	1.002	0.999	1.004	1.001	1.004	0.997
Mean	1.021	1.013	1.008	0.976	0.991	0.984

Overall, before the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative (2010-2013), the green total factor productivity index in agricultural product circulation in the provinces along the Belt and Road was 1.021, with an average annual growth rate of 2.1% over the four-year period. After the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative (2014-2021), the green total factor productivity index in agricultural product circulation in these provinces was 0.976, with an average annual decline of 2.4% over the seven-year period.

Looking at individual provinces and cities, during the pre-proposal period (2010-2013), out of the 17 provinces and cities along the Belt and Road, 15 provinces and cities achieved effective growth in green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation. Only Jilin and Ningxia experienced a decline in green total factor productivity, showing a downward trend. After the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative (2014-2021), only four provinces and cities, namely Jilin, Shanghai, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, achieved effective growth in green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation. Among them, only Xinjiang and Qinghai achieved effective growth in green total factor output change, while the remaining 13 provinces and cities experienced a deterioration in green total factor productivity change, showing a downward trend.

Figure 3-2. Changes in Key Indexes of Frontier Provinces along the "Belt and Road" Initiative from 2014 to 2021.

Figure 3-2. Changes in Key Indexes of Frontier Provinces along the "Belt and Road" Initiative from 2014 to 2021.

From the perspective of efficiency composition, the green total factor productivity (GTFPCH) in agricultural product circulation can be expressed as the product of green technology change index (GTC) and green technology efficiency index (GEC). After the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, the GTFPCH in the provinces along the Belt and Road decreased by 4.5%, with GTC declining by 2.2% and GEC declining by 2.4%. The mean values of both GTC and GEC were less than 1, indicating a deterioration in efficiency.

At this critical moment of transformation in modern agricultural development, the level of green technology plays a crucial role in establishing a sound modern agricultural product circulation system and ensuring high-quality development of agricultural product circulation. Technological backwardness can lead to issues for instance redundant capital, redundant transportation infrastructure, and redundant labor in the circulation process. It can also result in wastage of resources, inefficiency, and low quality in the production process, further reducing the development of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation. Additionally, Figure 3-2 shows that the GTFP in Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hainan, and Qinghai provinces is mainly affected by low green technology efficiency, especially in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, where agricultural green technology progress index is significantly higher than the technology application efficiency. This indicates that these two provinces have not effectively translated the achievements of agricultural green technology progress into the production and circulation field.

To improve the development of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation, it is important to promote green technology progress and enhance the efficiency of agricultural technology application. This can be achieved by improving agricultural product circulation efficiency, optimizing the circulation system, enhancing circulation quality and services and strengthening the competitiveness of agricultural products. It is necessary to explore and innovate in technology research and development, resource guarantee, environmental governance, and green technology application to enhance the level of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation in the provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative.

4. Analysis of Influencing Factors of Green Total Factor Productivity of Agricultural Product Circulation in Provinces along the Belt and Road

4.2. Analysis of empirical results

Variable	System GMM model
	Coefficient (Z-value)	P-value
L2.GTFPCH	-0.1924049* (-1.840)	0.066
ER	-0.0001091**（-1.97）	0.049
GP	-0.000045*** (-3.80)	0.000
FDI	0.0005733***（2.90）	0.004
TP	0.000000155(1.52)	0.128
RIT	-0.0147594**(-2.15)	0.032
Constant	1.22255***(11.82)	0.000
Wald statistic	173947.41
Wald associated probability	0.000
Arellano-Bond(1)	0.069
Arellano-Bond(2)	0.121
Sargan tests	0.952
Hansen tests	0.997

Note: *, **, *** significant at 10%, 5% and 1% levels.

Initially, regarding the GTFPCH equation, the Wald statistic and Wald associated probability at the 1% level, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis that "all explanatory variables are equal to zero." Subsequently, the Arellano-Bond autocorrelation test indicates that the P-values for AR(1) and AR(2) are 0.069 and 0.121, respectively, thus accepting the null hypothesis of "no autocorrelation in the disturbance term." As for the Sargan and Hansen tests, the P-values are 0.952 and 0.997, respectively, supporting the null hypothesis that "all instrumental variables are effectively valid." These findings suggest that the system GMM model is appropriately specified and, consequently, the estimation results hold a high level of reliability.

Regarding the relationship between L2.GTFPCH and agricultural green total factor productivity, the analysis reveals a significant negative correlation, passing the 10% significance level test. This finding can be interpreted in two main aspects. Firstly, the economic development levels among the provinces along the Belt and Road exhibit significant disparities. In order to expedite the enhancement of agricultural circulation efficiency, certain provinces may resort to compromising the ecological environment, thereby resulting in a decline in the development of green agricultural circulation efficiency. Secondly, due to the time lag associated with implementing environmental regulations and government support, the progress of green total factor productivity in agricultural circulation may experience a delayed effect. Thirdly the inadequacies within the agricultural circulation system, characterized by a complex and redundant circulation structure, as well as duplicative circulation functions, serve as fundamental barriers to the advancement of green circulation in the provinces along the Belt and Road.

There exists a significant negative correlation between environmental regulations and agricultural green total factor productivity, passing the 5% significance level test. This relationship can be explained from two perspectives. Firstly, stricter environmental regulations impose higher operating costs on agricultural circulation enterprises. As enterprises engaged in the production, circulation, and sales of agricultural products, they require additional technology, equipment, and manpower to meet environmental requirements. In such circumstances, the development space for these enterprises becomes constrained, leading to a negative impact on their green total factor productivity. Secondly, this study uses the number of environmental protection proposals during the annual sessions of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference as an indicator of environmental regulations. The formulation and implementation of environmental protection policies involve time lags and their implementation varies across different provinces due to disparities in regional development levels. Therefore, environmental regulatory measures should be based on the actual development conditions of agricultural circulation in the provinces along the Belt and Road. Specific issues need to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis, ensuring the protection of the interests of the main entities involved in agricultural product circulation, primarily farmers. Additionally, efforts should be made to cultivate a new generation of agricultural professionals who are knowledgeable and passionate about agriculture, and integrate the concepts of green and sustainable development throughout the entire agricultural product circulation chain. This approach will contribute to the improvement of agricultural green total factor productivity.

There exists a significant negative correlation between government support and agricultural green total factor productivity, passing the 1% significance level test. Government support can lead to increased dependence of agricultural circulation enterprises. Support measures such as government subsidies and preferential policies may diminish the motivation and willingness of enterprises to engage in green production. As a result, some enterprises may be more inclined to pursue higher profits through traditional, resource-intensive, and high-emission methods. This ultimately leads to a decline in agricultural green total factor productivity.

There is a significant negative correlation between the level of international trade in agricultural products and agricultural green total factor productivity, passing the 1% significance level test. On one hand, international trade in agricultural products involves transportation and storage on a global scale, which leads to increased emissions of pollutants such as carbon and chemical oxygen demand. This in turn increases pollution and energy consumption in the agricultural circulation process, further impacting agricultural green total factor productivity. On the other hand, international trade in agricultural products can result in trade barriers and technology transfer, posing challenges for relevant agricultural circulation enterprises such as higher market entry barriers, lack of green technological innovation, and low competitiveness in product markets. This leads to a deterioration in agricultural green total factor productivity. Furthermore, in the global agricultural market, China does not have a competitive advantage in the import and export of bulk agricultural products. During this period of significant global upheaval, the global agricultural market is unstable and China’s total trade volume of agricultural products has been declining in recent years, particularly in terms of importing certain agricultural products where it is subject to restrictions imposed by other countries. Therefore, to improve the current development challenges in agricultural green total factor productivity, it is necessary to leverage the "Belt and Road" initiative. Provinces along the Belt and Road should utilize their agricultural production, cultivation, and processing advantages to develop specialty agricultural products, build brand images for these products, establish sound models for the development of specialty agricultural product circulation and enhance the export of specialty agricultural products. This will drive comprehensive development in surrounding regions and overall economic growth.

The correlation between transportation infrastructure development in agricultural circulation and agricultural green total factor productivity is theoretically positive, indicating that a well-developed infrastructure should have a positive impact on productivity. Sound infrastructure facilitates efficient and cost-effective agricultural circulation, promotes marketization and internationalization of agricultural products, and ultimately enhances agricultural green total factor productivity. However, the practical relationship is influenced by various complex factors. Firstly, the adequacy of transportation infrastructure investments in the Belt and Road provinces may not meet the requirements for improving agricultural green total factor productivity. Insufficient investment in infrastructure construction in certain provinces hampers the transportation and circulation of agricultural products, thereby impeding the progress of agricultural green total factor productivity. Secondly, the benefits of infrastructure investments can be offset by other factors. For instance, government-imposed environmental regulations increase operational costs for agricultural circulation enterprises, thereby attenuating the influence of infrastructure development on agricultural green total factor productivity. Lastly, the effectiveness of transportation infrastructure investments is contingent on the level of government support for agricultural production and circulation. Even with robust infrastructure, its maximum benefits may not be realized in the absence of adequate government support in these realms. Hence, government support acts as a pivotal factor influencing agricultural green total factor productivity in agricultural circulation. In conclusion, the relationship between transportation infrastructure development and agricultural green total factor productivity in agricultural circulation is not unidirectional but rather influenced by a multitude of factors. While infrastructure investments can enhance agricultural green total factor productivity, it is imperative to concurrently reinforce government support for agricultural production and circulation, uphold robust environmental regulations, and optimize the resulting benefits.

The level of foreign direct investment (FDI) is positively correlated with agricultural green total factor productivity in agricultural circulation and this relationship has been validated through a significant level of 1%. There are several reasons for this positive correlation. Firstly, foreign-invested enterprises often bring advanced technologies and management expertise. By introducing these technologies and experiences, the agricultural circulation sector can benefit from technological advancements and improved management practices, thereby enhancing the level of green total factor productivity. Secondly, foreign investment can promote marketization and internationalization in the agricultural circulation sector. Foreign-invested enterprises typically possess extensive market networks and stronger international business experience, which can drive the development of agricultural trade, improve circulation efficiency, and enhance the quality of agricultural products. Furthermore, foreign-invested enterprises often have stronger financial capabilities and broader social resources. This enables them to contribute to capital investment and infrastructure development in the agricultural circulation sector, thereby improving the efficiency and quality of agricultural circulation. In summary, the positive correlation between the level of foreign direct investment and agricultural green total factor productivity in agricultural circulation can be attributed to the introduction of advanced technologies, improved management practices, market expansion, international trade facilitation, and increased capital investment. These factors collectively contribute to the enhancement of agricultural circulation efficiency and quality.

5. Spatial dependence test for green total factor productivity of agricultural product circulation among provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative.

The global Moran’s I index is a commonly used spatial autocorrelation analysis method that measures the spatial correlation of variables. By using the global Moran’s I index, we can determine whether there is a spatial clustering or dispersion trend in the green total factor productivity of agricultural product circulation and reveal the spatial dependency among provinces. When the global Moran’s I index approaches 1, it indicates a positive spatial correlation in the green total factor productivity, meaning that high-value areas tend to be surrounded by other high-value areas. Conversely, when the global Moran’s I index approaches -1, it indicates a negative spatial correlation, implying that low-value areas are surrounded by other low-value areas. If the global Moran’s I index approaches 0, it suggests a random distribution of the green total factor productivity. Therefore, by utilizing the global Moran’s I index to measure the spatial spillover effects of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation among provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative in China, we can understand the degree of mutual influence among different provinces and the spatial distribution patterns of green total factor productivity in agricultural product circulation.

Spatial Weight Matrix	Moran’s I coefficient	Variance	Z--score	P-value
Spatial Weight Matrix based on Geographic Adjacency	0.154	0.035	4.508	0.000***
Spatial Weight Matrix based on Geographic Distance	0.109	0.030	6.677	0.000***
Spatial Weight Matrix based on Economic Distance	0.133	0.065	2.089	0.018***

Note: *** indicates significance at the 1% level.

6. Suggestions

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