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Study on the Effects of Future Land Use Spatial Conflicts and Habitat Quality Based on SSPs-RCPs Scenarios–a Case Study of Ankang City in the Qin-Ba Mountains
Li, X.; Cheng, S.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, L.; Wu, C. Future Land Use Spatial Conflicts and Habitat Quality Impacts Based on SSPs-RCPs Scenarios—Qin-Ba Mountain City. Land2023, 12, 1708.
Li, X.; Cheng, S.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, L.; Wu, C. Future Land Use Spatial Conflicts and Habitat Quality Impacts Based on SSPs-RCPs Scenarios—Qin-Ba Mountain City. Land 2023, 12, 1708.
Li, X.; Cheng, S.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, L.; Wu, C. Future Land Use Spatial Conflicts and Habitat Quality Impacts Based on SSPs-RCPs Scenarios—Qin-Ba Mountain City. Land2023, 12, 1708.
Li, X.; Cheng, S.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, L.; Wu, C. Future Land Use Spatial Conflicts and Habitat Quality Impacts Based on SSPs-RCPs Scenarios—Qin-Ba Mountain City. Land 2023, 12, 1708.
Abstract
In the future, the pursuit of high-quality economic development and a focus on ecological environmental protection in China will inevitably result in significant conflicts between land use and ecological land use. The challenge lies in achieving sustainable high-quality development while simultaneously protecting the ecological environment, optimizing the land use structure, and promoting a harmonious relationship between humans and the land. These challenges are faced by all regions. Land use conflicts primarily occur in peri-urban areas characterized by prominent economic development and urban agglomeration. Previous studies have mainly focused on analyzing the effects of land use on habitat quality during intense urbanization. However, it is important to recognize that land pressure encompasses economic, ecological, and social aspects. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the spatial conflict of land use and the impact on habitat quality in Ankang, a city that has been advocating ecological protection for the past two decades, this study aims to objectively analyze the spatial trends in land use changes in such cities. Additionally, it aims to provide insights for the harmonious development of land use in eco-region-oriented cities. Using the SSP-RCP scenarios provided by CMIP6, this paper employs a system analysis method, PLUS model, InVEST model, and land use conflict measurement model to dynamically simulate the future habitat quality and spatial conflict patterns of land use in Ankang City. The study explores the spatial coupling effect of both factors under different scenarios. The results indicate the following:(1) Under different future shared socio-economic path scenarios, land use intensity and land conflict levels follow the order of SSP585 (high forcing scenario), SSP370 (medium to high forcing scenario), SSP245 (medium forcing scenario), and SSP126 (low forcing scenario), with intensity and conflict decreasing accordingly. (2) The overall development trend in Ankang City reveals an intensification of land use conflicts and a decrease in habitat quality. The expansion rate of construction land is increasing and exhibiting aggregation, while agricultural land area is expanding and forest land area is continuously decreasing. (3) Land use intensity exhibits a significant positive correlation with land conflict levels, while land conflict levels demonstrate a significant negative correlation with habitat quality. These findings suggest that land use has had some impact on the ecological environment, with indications of habitat degradation. Even in Ankang, where ecological development is highly valued, the city will gradually face conflicts between ecological protection and economic development in future scenarios. The study highlights that Ankang's future development space will be constrained within the context of environmental protection, leading to greater land use conflicts in urban and surrounding areas. Consequently, the quality of habitats will inevitably decline. Therefore, it is crucial to allocate sufficient space for economic development while simultaneously prioritizing ecological protection. This approach will ensure a healthy economic development trajectory and foster a harmonious relationship between humans and the land.
Keywords
land use change; land use conflict; PLUS model; SSPs-RCP scenario; habitat quality; Qin-Ba Mountains
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.