Preprint
Article

Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study

This version is not peer-reviewed.

Submitted:

20 September 2024

Posted:

23 September 2024

You are already at the latest version

Abstract
We evaluated performance of two American surveillance systems for monitoring the spread of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhea: the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP) and the enhanced Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (eGISP) which includes the non-urethral isolates in addition to the urethral ones utilized in the original surveillance system. A continuous-time agent-based model of gonorrhea transmission among the US men who have sex with men (MSM) population was developed and used for this purpose. The model accounts for susceptible and resistant strains of N. gonorrhoeae, symptomatic and asymptomatic infection and different transmission routes. Overall, eGISP system outperforms the original GISP system and allows to obtain a higher accuracy using a significantly lower number of isolates. Most of time, the original surveillance system determines the moment of switch to a new antibiotic later than necessary which leads to additional gonorrhea cases and spread of the resistance. Informing the gonorrhea treatment guidelines by eGISP estimates instead of the currently used GISP estimates would result in reduction of 622 (95% uncertainty interval: -4,009, 9,099) gonorrhea cases in the simulated cohort of 10,000 US MSM over a 25-year period without reduction in the lifespan of the current first-line antibiotic.
Keywords: 
Agent-based modelling; gonorrhea; antimicrobial resistance; surveillance
Subject: 
Computer Science and Mathematics  -   Mathematical and Computational Biology
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

Downloads

422

Views

666

Comments

0

Subscription

Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.

Email

Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2025 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated