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On Burden of Diseases, Prevention, Medical Research and Health Service Delivery: Grampian Case Study

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05 December 2023

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06 December 2023

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Abstract
Burden of diseases measured as disability-adjusted life years per 100,000 people can be mined from public domain data, when they are made available by population health surveillance systems. This can be analysed to allow insightful comparisons with the national average, and to understand differences in trends between the sexes, age groups, time periods, geographic regions and sub-regions. In this illustrative case study, we have analysed the Scottish burden of disease database to understand what ailed the population of the Grampian region before the COVID-19 pandemic. We have identified selected cancers, ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias amongst the highest contributors to the burden; that drug use disorders and colorectal cancer are showing worsening trends and require health promotion and disease prevention measures from ages 15 and 25 respectively, especially in Aberdeen City; and that males are more vulnerable to atrial fibrillation and flutter, diabetes mellitus and oesophageal cancer, while females are to cerebrovascular disease. We demonstrate the usefulness of our analysis and methodology for the wider health system, allowing targeted medical research investments and coordinated response from public health and health service delivery. We also show the need for up-to-date surveillance data, forecasts and evidence on the impact of interventions to be made available widely.
Keywords: 
Subject: Public Health and Healthcare  -   Public Health and Health Services

1. Introduction

The origin of quality of life and cost-effectiveness analyses can be traced back to a study on chronic renal disease published in 1968 [1], leading to quality-adjusted life years or QALYs being formally defined in 1976 as the output of a utility function ([2], c.f. Acknowledgements). This concept gained gradual acceptance over the next three decades for the economic evaluation of healthcare programmes [3], using metrics such as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio developed at York [4], and the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) introduced in 1994 as a related term with age-weighting and discounting [3,5].
Disability-adjusted life year (DALY), the loss of equivalent of one year of full health, is a time-based measure which allows the burden of different diseases to be compared objectively [6]. DALY is a combination of years of life lost due to mortality (YLL), and years of healthy life lost due to disability or living in less than full health (YLD). DALY and DALY rate per 100,000 people in a given region can provide valuable insights to health service providers, public health departments, health economists and policy makers if data is available to compare that region (for example, Grampian in Scotland) with others and the national average – as shown in this communication. Authentic and curated sources of such data in the United Kingdom include the Fingertips for England [7], the Scottish Burden of Disease [8], etc.

2. Methods

For this work, we have used the Scottish burden of disease [8, c.f. eight references therein], a population health surveillance system which monitors how diseases, injuries and risk factors prevent the Scottish population from living longer lives in better health. The underlying raw Scottish burden of disease data used by this communication is available as Supplementary Material S1.

3. Results and Discussions

Burden of disease expressed as DALY rate per 100,000 population was calculated for Scotland versus Grampian for the latest year for which data is available (2019), separately for females (Table 1 and Table 2) and males (Table 3 and Table 4).
It is seen from Table 1 and Table 3 that by and large the top 25 diseases for Grampian are also important for Scotland, however their exact order may vary. Ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias significantly affect both Grampian and Scotland (c.f. Figure 1), so it is important to focus on these national priorities.
We are able to identify those diseases where Grampian’s DALY rate exceeds the Scottish average as local priorities for the region. These include atrial fibrillation and flutter, diabetes and oesophageal cancer for males; breast cancer, cerebrovascular disease, and other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases for females; colorectal cancer and drug use disorders affecting both sexes with worsening trends since 2016 (c.f. Table 1 and Table 3). Table 2 and Table 4 identify the age groups for these diseases of concern where the burden is especially high. It is important to address these unmet needs through a combination of public health measures (e.g. health promotion, disease prevention) and interventions arising from life sciences, health and medical research and innovation.
The latter is very important as demonstrated by recent reviews of Australia’s hugely important Medical Research Future Fund [9,10], in which it was found that 231 grants were awarded during 2016-19 with a total value of AU$ 574.5 million [10], but when mapped against 17 disease groups in the Australian burden of disease study 2015 [11], only a weak association was observed with DALY (r2 = 0.4359) and no association was observed with disability burden YLD (r2 = 0.0009) [10]. Any life sciences, health and medical research and innovation investments into Grampian by public, private or non-profit sectors should take these considerations into account. Realistic medicine approaches [12] and regional investments should target the local burden of diseases, lest there could be higher opportunity costs and unintentional widening of inequalities. For the Grampian region, disease priorities are summarized under the mnemonic “CICADAS” (Table 5), with the worst-affected age groups identified from Table 2 and Table 4.
As shown in Figure 1, the Grampian region is in turn comprised of three Health & Social Care Partnerships (viz. Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and Moray), so it will be instructive to see if there are any sub-regional variations that these partnerships should be made aware of. From Table 6, it is seen that Aberdeenshire is close to the Grampian average for diseases in females listed under Table 2 (except perhaps breast cancer); Aberdeen City has higher DALY rate than Grampian for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, lung and colorectal cancers and drug use disorders; while Aberdeenshire has higher DALY rate than Grampian for ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases.
From Table 7, it is seen that Aberdeenshire is again tracking the Grampian average for diseases in males listed under Table 4 (except perhaps colorectal cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter); Moray has higher DALY rate than Grampian for lung cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter; while Aberdeen has higher DALY rate than Grampian for all but atrial fibrillation and flutter. Thus we notice that while some trends are the same for both sexes, there are significant differences too, so we need a nuanced approach.

4. Conclusions, limitation and future work

With health services under increasing pressure across the world, it is important to ensure better alignment between the long-term plans for population health, integrated health and social care. In many developed countries, we have health surveillance data on the public domain. These, especially on burden of diseases, can be mined and analysed by health service providers to serve their populations more effectively and in a targeted manner, as shown in this communication with the Grampian region case study. For example, we were able to identify which diseases have the highest DALY rate burden, which ones are of particular concern to Grampian, and those that are showing a worsening trend. We were also able to gain a nuanced understanding in terms of differences between males and females, age groups, and the three sub-regions that make up Grampian. This will allow targeted medical research investments and coordinated response from public health and health service delivery. The public domain Scottish burden of disease data ends at 2019, and we acknowledge this limitation. However, this communication does provide a useful pre-pandemic baseline for future comparisons, and our methodology and case study will still be very useful across the UK and internationally. We also demonstrate the importance of up-to-date surveillance data being available to health service providers, as well as the need for predictive trends and evidence on the impact of interventions, and it is heartening to note that such forecasting could soon be made available “to offer insights into future public health challenges in Scotland” [8].

Supplementary Materials

The following supporting information can be downloaded at the website of this paper posted on Preprints.org, Table S1: Scottish burden of disease underlying dataset.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, S.S.V. and N.F.; methodology, S.S.V.; software, S.S.V.; validation, S.S.V.; formal analysis, S.S.V.; investigation, S.S.V.; resources, N.F.; data curation, S.S.V.; writing—original draft preparation, S.S.V.; writing—review and editing, S.S.V. and N.F.; visualization, S.S.V.; supervision, N.F.; project administration, S.S.V.; funding acquisition, N.F. Both authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

Data supporting reported results can be downloaded from the Scottish burden of disease [8] or Supplementary Material.

Acknowledgments

S.S.V. is grateful for discussions with his past collaborator and co-author Professor Donald S. Shepard of Brandeis University (see for instance [13] and [14]) on QALYs versus DALYs. Donald preferred the term QALY to quality-adjusted citizen years as the latter acronym was felt to be quacky and fowl usage. The authors thank their colleague Professor Shantini Paranjothy for her comments.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References

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  2. Zeckhauser, R.; Shepard, D.S. Where now for saving lives? Law and Contemporary Problems 1976, 40, 5–45. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
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  4. York Health Economics Consortium. Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio. Available online: https://yhec.co.uk/glossary/incremental-cost-effectiveness-ratio-icer/ (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  5. Murray, C. Quantifying the burden of disease: the technical basis for disability-adjusted life years. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 1994, 72, 429–445. Available online: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2486718/ (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  6. World Health Organization. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Available online: https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/158 (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  7. Office for Health Improvement and Disparities. Fingertips (public health data). Available online: https://fingertips.phe.org.uk (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  8. Public Health Scotland. Scottish burden of disease. Available online: https://scotland.shinyapps.io/phs-local-trends-scottish-burden-diseases (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  9. Department of Health’s Management of Financial Assistance under the Medical Research Future Fund; Australian National Audit Office: Canberra, Australia, 2021; Available online: https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/department-health-management-financial-assistance-under-the-medical-research-future-fund (accessed on 20 November 2023).
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  11. Australian Burden of Disease Study 2015: interactive data on disease burden. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare: Canberra, Australia, 2019; Available online: https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/burden-of-disease/abds-2015-interactive-data-disease-burden/data (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  12. Realistic Medicine. Available online: https://realisticmedicine.scot (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  13. Lee, H.L.; Vasan, S.S.; Birgelen, L.; Murtola, T.M.; Gong, H.F.; Field, R.W.; Mavalankar, D.V.; Ahmad, N.W.; Hakim, L.S.; Murad, S.; Ng, C.W.; Lucy, L.C.S.; Suaya, J.A.; Shepard, D.S. Immediate cost of dengue to Malaysia and Thailand: an estimate. Dengue Bulletin 2010, 34, 65–76. Available online: https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/170972 (accessed on 20 November 2023).
  14. Murtola, T.M.; Vasan, S.S.; Puwar, T.I.; Govil, D.; Field, R.W.; Gong, H.F.; Bhavsar-Vyas, A.; Suaya, J.A.; Howard, M.; Shepard, D.S.; Kohli, V.K.; Prajapati, P.B.; Singh, A.; Mavalankar, D.V. Preliminary estimate of immediate cost of chikungunya and dengue to Gujarat, India. Dengue Bulletin 2010, 34, 32–38. Available online: https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/170981 (accessed on 20 November 2023).
Figure 1. Grampian is a region in Scotland, and its constituent Health & Social Care Partnerships are shown in yellow (Aberdeen City), amber (Aberdeenshire) and red (Moray). Remixed image from Wikipedia released under the GNU Free Documentation License, highlighted for clarity.
Figure 1. Grampian is a region in Scotland, and its constituent Health & Social Care Partnerships are shown in yellow (Aberdeen City), amber (Aberdeenshire) and red (Moray). Remixed image from Wikipedia released under the GNU Free Documentation License, highlighted for clarity.
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Table 1. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – females in Scotland versus Grampian (across time).
Table 1. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – females in Scotland versus Grampian (across time).
Disease Scotland Grampian Difference CAGR 6
Time period 2019 2019 2018 2017 2016 2019 2016-19
Alzheimer's disease1 1827 1693 1675 1655 1616 -134 1.6%
Ischaemic heart disease 1605 1489 1635 1639 1525 -116 -0.8%
Cerebrovascular disease 1379 1414 1391 1521 1508 35 -2.1%
Low back and neck pain 1452 1390 1391 1391 1370 -62 0.5%
Lung cancer 1474 1366 1287 1110 1163 -108 5.5%
Headache disorders 1333 1337 1337 1337 1327 4 0.3%
COPD 2 1301 1087 952 1144 1060 -214 0.8%
Breast cancer 1027 1077 846 1092 1106 50 -0.9%
Depression 1215 1067 1068 1068 1044 -148 0.7%
Anxiety disorders 1045 918 919 919 898 -127 0.7%
Other cancers 1094 911 1169 1153 930 -183 -0.7%
Other cardiovascular3 763 850 679 865 837 87 0.5%
Colorectal cancer 648 726 668 681 638 78 4.4%
Drug use disorders 1003 677 522 683 553 -326 7.0%
Lower respiratory infections 622 528 691 800 612 -94 -4.8%
Diabetes mellitus 586 487 551 600 555 -99 -4.3%
Other musculoskeletal disorders 462 445 478 475 467 -17 -1.5%
Osteoarthritis 457 441 442 442 438 -16 0.3%
Cirrhosis 4 510 421 429 396 445 -89 -1.8%
Chronic kidney disease 382 396 423 499 376 14 1.8%
Skin and subcutaneous diseases 406 391 407 386 364 -15 2.5%
Other digestive diseases 440 368 344 378 387 -72 -1.7%
Gynecological diseases 368 360 360 360 367 -8 -0.6%
Asthma 330 335 317 393 351 5 -1.5%
Self-harm 5 399 332 291 311 289 -67 4.8%
Falls 380 332 287 316 277 -48 6.1%
1 and other dementias; 2 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; 3 and circulatory diseases; 4 and other chronic liver diseases; 5 and interpersonal violence; 6 Compound annual growth rate in percentage. Bold font indicates areas of concern.
Table 2. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – females in Grampian 2019 (for selected diseases, age groups).
Table 2. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – females in Grampian 2019 (for selected diseases, age groups).
Selected diseases of concern Grampian 2019
Age groups All <15 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85+
Alzheimer's disease 1 1693 0 0 2 72 4489 36399
Ischaemic heart disease 1489 1 1 81 1012 4929 14448
Cerebrovascular disease 1414 186 9 113 913 3878 18098
Lung cancer 1366 0 0 73 1765 4778 2660
Breast cancer 1077 0 18 743 1774 1926 3218
Other cardiovascular 2 850 26 37 300 872 2250 5948
Colorectal cancer 726 5 7 383 530 2271 3851
Drug use disorders 677 0 430 1763 561 65 8
1 and other dementias; 2 and circulatory diseases. Bold font indicates areas of concern.
Table 3. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – males in Scotland versus Grampian (across time).
Table 3. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – males in Scotland versus Grampian (across time).
Disease Scotland Grampian Difference CAGR 6
Time period 2019 2019 2018 2017 2016 2019 2016-19
Ischaemic heart disease 3713 3488 3422 3495 3311 -225 1.7%
Lung cancer 1749 1605 1738 1737 1842 -144 -4.5%
Alzheimer's disease1 1639 1592 1578 1536 1370 -47 5.1%
Cerebrovascular disease 1516 1291 1763 1720 1800 -225 -10.5%
Drug use disorders 2367 1233 1308 1337 1007 -1134 7.0%
COPD 2 1296 1208 1093 1385 1209 -88 0.0%
Other cancers 1295 1142 1108 1235 1259 -153 -3.2%
Depression 1277 1090 1091 1092 1059 -187 1.0%
Low back and neck pain 1075 1040 1041 1041 1029 -35 0.4%
Diabetes mellitus 923 973 935 924 816 50 6.0%
Colorectal cancer 878 960 1083 1012 808 82 5.9%
Self-harm 3 1194 934 972 895 930 -260 0.2%
Other cardiovascular 4 1077 925 1146 1241 1219 -152 -8.8%
Lower respiratory infections 801 774 737 884 671 -27 4.9%
Prostate cancer 821 758 761 830 773 -63 -0.7%
Headache disorders 617 623 623 623 619 6 0.2%
Oesophageal cancer 483 617 498 545 491 134 7.9%
Alcohol use disorders 863 607 714 720 637 -256 -1.6%
Anxiety disorders 646 552 553 553 536 -94 1.0%
Cirrhosis 5 752 496 596 592 747 -256 -12.8%
Atrial fibrillation and flutter 430 454 412 493 447 24 0.5%
Chronic kidney disease 394 388 385 389 394 -6 -0.5%
Other musculoskeletal disorders 385 387 379 356 374 2 1.1%
Other digestive diseases 412 368 351 327 376 -44 -0.7%
Pancreatic cancer 372 366 436 383 285 -6 8.7%
Other chronic respiratory diseases 395 360 428 353 323 -35 3.7%
Falls 466 366 424 353 455 -100 -7.0%
1 and other dementias; 2 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; 3 and interpersonal violence; 4 and circulatory diseases; 5 and other chronic liver diseases 6 Compound annual growth rate in percentage. Bold font indicates areas of concern.
Table 4. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – males in Grampian 2019 (for selected diseases, age groups).
Table 4. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – males in Grampian 2019 (for selected diseases, age groups).
Selected diseases of concern Grampian 2019
Age groups All <15 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85+
Ischaemic heart disease 3488 1 3 391 3577 11196 21317
Lung cancer 1605 0 0 141 1574 5874 6083
Alzheimer's disease 1 1592 0 0 1 204 4632 29994
Drug use disorders 1233 0 884 2671 1564 21 193
Diabetes mellitus 973 19 62 286 1266 2802 3015
Colorectal cancer 960 6 11 94 872 3327 5437
Oesophageal cancer 617 0 1 70 734 2235 954
Atrial fibrillation and flutter 454 0 3 20 229 1601 4630
1 and other dementias. Bold font indicates areas of concern.
Table 5. Selected disease conditions of concern to Grampian and age groups worst affected.
Table 5. Selected disease conditions of concern to Grampian and age groups worst affected.
Acronym Disease condition(s) of concern Age groups worst affected
C Cancer – Breast, Colorectal, Lung, Oesophageal (especially amongst males) 25+
I Ischaemic heart disease; Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases 25+
C Cerebrovascular disease (especially amongst females) 45+
A Alzheimer's disease and other dementias 65+
D Drug use disorders 15-64
A Atrial fibrillation and flutter (especially amongst males) 45+
S Sugar (Diabetes mellitus, especially amongst males) 25+
Table 6. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – females (2019, for selected diseases in Table 2, sub-regions).
Table 6. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – females (2019, for selected diseases in Table 2, sub-regions).
Selected diseases of concern Grampian Aberdeen Aberdeenshire Moray
Alzheimer's disease 1 1693 1821 1660 1526
Ischaemic heart disease 1489 1460 1477 1597
Cerebrovascular disease 1414 1493 1252 1683
Lung cancer 1366 1603 1207 1334
Breast cancer 1077 1068 1113 1012
Other cardiovascular 2 850 797 850 874
Colorectal cancer 726 960 674 438
Drug use disorders 677 830 638 449
1 and other dementias; 2 and circulatory diseases. Bold font indicates areas of concern.
Table 7. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – males (2019, for selected diseases in Table 4, sub-regions).
Table 7. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate per 100,000 people – males (2019, for selected diseases in Table 4, sub-regions).
Selected diseases of concern Grampian Aberdeen Aberdeenshire Moray
Ischaemic heart disease 3488 4166 3109 3231
Lung cancer 1605 1910 1287 1898
Alzheimer's disease 1 1592 1732 1556 1440
Drug use disorders 1233 1665 949 1153
Diabetes mellitus 973 1153 869 930
Colorectal cancer 960 1103 980 682
Oesophageal cancer 617 823 538 449
Atrial fibrillation and flutter 454 399 478 503
1 and other dementias. Bold font indicates areas of concern.
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