The global food system is increasingly vulnerable to external shocks and to the existential threat of climate change. The UK imports nearly half of its food and, therefore, the food security and health of its citizens is vulnerable to external shocks and the impacts of climate change both at home and from where it imports its food.
1.1. The Globalised Agrifood System Is Failing
Supply chain disruptions, a pandemic, and now a war in Ukraine have exposed existing faultlines in a globalised food system that depends on a few staple crops grown in a few exporting regions and transported to countries that cannot otherwise feed themselves. Together, Russia and Ukraine supply 28 per cent of globally traded wheat, 29 per cent of barley, 15 per cent of maize and 75 per cent of the sunflower seeds that account for 11.5 per cent of the vegetable oil market [
1,
2]. Russia is also the world’s biggest exporter of nitrogen fertiliser, the second of potash and third of phosphorus and a major source of the fossil fuels on which global agriculture depends [
3]. Just three `staple’ food crops (wheat, rice and maize) now provide over 60 per cent of the calories in human diets [
4]. Not only do they sustain us, but staple crops also feed our livestock and, increasingly, our engines. We use 10 per cent of our three major crops and 18 per cent of vegetable oils for biofuels — equivalent to the food needs of 1.9 billion people. In 2021 China imported 28 million tonnes of maize to feed pigs and over 40 per cent of the wheat grown in the EU and 33 per cent in the US was fed to cows [
5]. Our dependence on so few mainstream crops for food, feed and fuel will become an increasingly risky proposition in an uncertain and more crowded world. If we are struggling to
feed a global population of nearly 8 billion people, how can we
nourish a predicted 10 billion by 2050 on a hotter planet? To date, our response has been “business-as-usual” as importing countries scramble to find alternative sources of mainstream crops to those previously imported from Ukraine and Russia. However, to protect their food security, 23 countries, including India, have imposed restrictions on wheat exports and other foodstuffs.
The climate crisis remains an existential threat to humanity, our food systems, and the natural ecosystems on which we all depend. Agriculture is both a contributor to the climate crisis and its victim. It is responsible for between 21 and 37 per cent of global carbon emissions and, at the same time, the productivity and yields of mainstream crops are increasingly affected by extreme weather events caused by climate change [
6]. In 2022, more than 40 per cent of wheat on North America’s Great Plains suffered from drought whilst floods in China meant that national wheat yields were amongst the poorest on record [
7]. In May 2022 India registered record temperatures of 49°C and much of Europe suffered a deadly heatwave with sharp decreases across the continent in the yields of major crops due to heat and drought.
1.2. UK Food and Health Are Vulnerable
The UK depends on imports for its food security and is therefore vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in those countries from which it imports food. Three crops, (wheat, barley, and oilseed rape), account for 75 per cent of the UK’s 4.5 million hectares of arable cropped land whilst around half of the food consumed in the UK is imported. The UK’s top eight trading partners are all EU member states; in 2020, nearly 40 per cent of UK food imports by value came from just four EU countries (the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany, and France) [
8]. Whilst 93 per cent of domestic consumption of fresh vegetables was fulfilled by domestic and European production, only 16 per cent of the UK’s fruit supply is grown locally (similar to the level in the 1990s) whilst the rest comes from the EU, Africa, and the Americas. Not only is the UK food system dependent on the climate and political stability of other parts of the world, it is also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on food production at home. Under a medium emissions scenario climate change could reduce the proportion of `best and most versatile’ arable farmland from 38.1 per cent of agricultural land on a 1961 to 1990 baseline to 11.4 per cent by 2050 [
9]. Under a high emissions scenario it could be further reduced to 9.2 per cent of agricultural land. The UK government is committed to a 'net zero target' of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 100 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050 [
10]. Meeting Net Zero, whilst achieving other climate and biodiversity goals as well as the United Nations Agenda for Sustainable Development, will further add to pressures on land use for multiple and competing purposes beyond food production, for example to mitigate carbon emissions through the planting of biomass and energy crops. As well as risks associated with higher temperatures on yield and quality of mainstream crops, climate change has impacts on rainfall amounts and distribution, the availability of water for irrigation and increased frequency of drought and flooding.
The UK’s exit from the European Union brings with it additional complications in terms of costs and barriers to trade and the availability of seasonal agriculture workers from EU countries. Changes in UK agricultural policy include the replacement of direct payments to farmers with new schemes that reward farmers for delivering public goods that enhance the environment, improve animal welfare, or reduce carbon emissions. Since its exit from the EU, the UK has been in an “Agricultural Transition Period” during which the Government has maintained agricultural subsidies at the same levels as under the EU Common Agricultural Policy. However, it is now changing the payment system to provide “public money for public goods”. Under the new Environmental Land Management scheme (ELMs) [
11], farmers will no longer receive payments for crop production or land tenure but for activities that contribute to public goods such as nature restoration, woodland management, flood prevention, soil improvement, animal welfare and carbon sequestration. Currently high energy costs are also having adverse impacts on other sectors of the food supply chain such as fuel, transport, labour, pesticides, fertilisers, and maintenance of protected environments such as glasshouses. Despite advances in breeding and agronomy, on-farm yields of crops including wheat and oilseed rape have not shown consistent yield increases since the 1990s [
12].
Health inequality in England is increasing. Men in the most affluent parts of the country can expect to live for 9.5 years longer than their counterparts in the poorest areas [
13]. For healthy life expectancy there is an even greater disparity between rich and poor with a gap of 19 years [
14]. Women in the poorest areas now die younger than in 2010 and female Healthy Life Expectancy in 2017 to 2019 was almost five months shorter than in 2014 to 2016 and is now the lowest it has been since records began in 2009 to 2011 [
15]. There is increasing evidence that our modern diet disproportionately affects the poor. Globally, nine of the top fifteen risk factors for morbidity, including high body mass index (BMI), high blood pressure, cardiac disease, diabetes and malnutrition, are associated with poor diets [
16]. In 2017, the UK had the tenth highest adult obesity levels amongst the 38 member states in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and obesity has increased by 92 per cent since the 1990s [
17]. In 2018, 63 per cent of adults in England were overweight or obese. Whilst the national average for obesity was 28 per cent, those living in the poorest areas had obesity levels of 36 per cent compared to 20 per cent in the less deprived areas [
18]. The impacts of poor diet on health start young. Children living in the poorest areas of the country are four times more likely than those in affluent areas to be severely obese when they arrive at primary school and are five times more likely to be severely obese when they leave it [
19]. Sixteen per cent of people in the lowest income group suffer from diabetes: more than twice the percentage of those in the highest income group [
20].
The link between food, health, climate change and the agrifood system is irrefutable. Food is responsible for around one quarter of the UK’s carbon footprint, predominately from intensive fertiliser use, livestock production and food waste [
21]. Poor diets contribute to one in seven deaths in the UK [
18] and the dietary recommendation to eat a diverse diet containing a wide range of plant-based foods links directly to the limited number of plant species that are consumed in a typical UK household diet [
22]. Our eating habits have changed over recent decades. The UK Family Food Datasets show trends in the purchases of food and drink by UK households since the 1970s [
23]. These indicate increases in purchases of fresh fruit that are not generally grown in the UK, such as melons, grapes, and stone fruit as well as vegetables such as marrow, courgettes, aubergine, and pumpkin and decreases in the purchases of traditional fruits such as apples, and vegetables such as potatoes, cabbages, brussels sprouts, carrots, turnips, and swedes. However, like obesity and life expectancy, fruit and vegetable consumption also follows a social gradient, with adults and children in the lowest income decile eating, on average, 42 per cent less fruit and vegetables than recommended levels [
24]. Whilst overall bread consumption has declined, purchases of oat and oatmeal products, and imported ingredients such as rice and fresh and dried pasta have increased.
Crop diversification is not a new concept in the UK and Defra’s Farm Business Survey 2016/17 claims that 66 per cent of farmers were planning to diversify their business within three years. However, a closer look reveals that `diversification’ is considered as a business term, where farmers are often encouraged to utilise their assets (machinery, building and land) for other purposes whilst diversification of crops and cropping systems is not explicitly included as a viable option to improve income. This is perhaps because underutilised crops are not popular among commercial growers owing to the risks involved with their adoption, established seed systems and guaranteed markets. Crop diversification is also considered a slow process in a risk averse industry that is increasingly threatened by the impacts of changes in markets and climates. According to statistics from the UK government [
25], although the production of cereal crops increased by 5.7 per cent in 2021, the Farm Business Income (FBI) varied greatly among farmers and 16 per cent of farmers failed to reach a positive FBI. Continuous impact on production costs is expected in the future due to a multitude of factors such as Brexit, the COVID-19 global pandemic and recession, changes in food policies, and changes in the environment [
26].
Current agricultural practices are based on the intensive production of high yielding crop varieties using the best arable land. To date, no specific plan has been proposed to harness the potential of diverse crops in less intensive production systems and on land that is less suited to mainstream agriculture. The absence of such a plan illustrates the dearth of detailed discussions on the potential of agrobiodiversity i.e. the variety and variability of animals, plants and micro-organisms that are used directly or indirectly for food [
27]. For UK agriculture, any such discussions need evidence-based recommendations that are designed to diversify both production systems and income streams [
28] as well as improve food and nutrition security.