Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Integrating Mathematical Optimization to Enhance Sustainability in a Crop and Dairy Production Agent-Based Model for Luxembourg

Version 1 : Received: 30 May 2024 / Approved: 30 May 2024 / Online: 31 May 2024 (13:50:15 CEST)

How to cite: Bayram, A.; Marvuglia, A.; Navarrete Gutierrez, T.; Soyeurt, H. Integrating Mathematical Optimization to Enhance Sustainability in a Crop and Dairy Production Agent-Based Model for Luxembourg. Preprints 2024, 2024052142. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.2142.v1 Bayram, A.; Marvuglia, A.; Navarrete Gutierrez, T.; Soyeurt, H. Integrating Mathematical Optimization to Enhance Sustainability in a Crop and Dairy Production Agent-Based Model for Luxembourg. Preprints 2024, 2024052142. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.2142.v1

Abstract

To curb the impacts arising from the agricultural sector the actions undertaken by policymakers, and ultimately by the farmers, are of paramount importance. However, finding the best strategy to reduce impacts, and especially assessing the effects of the interactions and mutual influence among farmers, is very difficult. To this aim, this paper shows an application of an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with life cycle assessment (LCA), which also includes multi objective optimization of farming activities (including both crop cultivation and livestock breeding) from an economic and environmental perspective. The environmental impacts are assessed using the impact assessment scores calculated with the Environmental Footprint (EF) 3.0 life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method and the study is conducted “from cradle to farm gate”. The model is applied to all the farms in Luxembourg, whose network is constructed utilizing neighborhood interactions, through which a parameter known as farmer's green consciousness (GC) is updated at each time step. The optimization module is instantiated at the end of each time step, and decision variables (the number of livestock units and land allocation) are assigned based on profitability and specified environmental impact categories. If only profit optimization is considered (i.e. when farmers’ GC is de-activated), the results show a 9% reduction in the aggregated environmental impacts (obtained as EF “single score”) and a 5.5% increase in overall profitability. At the farm level, simulations display a clear trade-off between environmental sustainability and financial stability, with a 25% reduction in overall emissions possible if farming activities are carried using the EF single score impact in the objective function, though this results in an 8% reduction in profitability over ten years.

Keywords

Dairy farm management; agricultural modeling; multi-objective optimization; mathematical programming; lifecycle assessment; common agricultural policy

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science and Technology

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