PreprintArticleVersion 1Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Time-Delay Dynamic Model and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases with Transportation-Related Infections and Entry-Exit Screening
Version 1
: Received: 3 June 2024 / Approved: 4 June 2024 / Online: 4 June 2024 (14:08:43 CEST)
How to cite:
Xie, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Wu, Y.; Li, S.; Pang, L.; Li, Y. Time-Delay Dynamic Model and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases with Transportation-Related Infections and Entry-Exit Screening. Preprints2024, 2024060199. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202406.0199.v1
Xie, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Wu, Y.; Li, S.; Pang, L.; Li, Y. Time-Delay Dynamic Model and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases with Transportation-Related Infections and Entry-Exit Screening. Preprints 2024, 2024060199. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202406.0199.v1
Xie, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Wu, Y.; Li, S.; Pang, L.; Li, Y. Time-Delay Dynamic Model and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases with Transportation-Related Infections and Entry-Exit Screening. Preprints2024, 2024060199. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202406.0199.v1
APA Style
Xie, Y., Zhang, Z., Wu, Y., Li, S., Pang, L., & Li, Y. (2024). Time-Delay Dynamic Model and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases with Transportation-Related Infections and Entry-Exit Screening. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202406.0199.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Xie, Y., Liuyong Pang and Yong Li. 2024 "Time-Delay Dynamic Model and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases with Transportation-Related Infections and Entry-Exit Screening" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202406.0199.v1
Abstract
We analyze a time-delayed SIQR model that considers the transportation-related infections and entry-exit screening. This model aims to determine the measures for preventing and controlling major emergent infectious diseases and the associated costs. We calculate the basic reproduction number (R0), apply the linearization method, and construct an appropriate Lyapunov function to determine the stability of the disease-free equilibrium in the local and global. We collect COVID-19 infection data from two regions in the United States in 2020 for data fitting, obtain a set of optimal parameter values, and show that the model is suitable for simulating the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases. We find that transportation-related infections increase the basic reproduction number, enhancing the impact on disease spread. Entry-exit screening effectively suppress the spread of disease by reducing the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of the incubation period on disease and find that a shorter incubation period results in a shorter duration but a larger scale of infection, and the peaks are reduced. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the R0 and propose three measures to prevent the spread of new infectious diseases based on the most sensitive parameters: wearing masks, implementing urban closures, and administering medication to sick but not yet hospitalized patients promptly. In the case of COVID-19, we use Pontryagin’s minimum principle to get time-varying control measures to control the spread of the outbreak. Optimal control effectively controls the development and deterioration of the disease. Finally, several control measures are compared through cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results show that wearing masks is the most cost-effective measure. Our study provides some practical guidance for controlling the spread of major emerging infectious diseases.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
