Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Projections on the Spatiotemporal Bioclimatic Change over the Phytogeographical Regions of Greece by the Emberger Index

Version 1 : Received: 1 July 2024 / Approved: 2 July 2024 / Online: 2 July 2024 (10:00:41 CEST)

How to cite: Charalampopoulos, I.; Droulia, F.; Kokkoris, I. P.; Dimopoulos, P. Projections on the Spatiotemporal Bioclimatic Change over the Phytogeographical Regions of Greece by the Emberger Index. Preprints 2024, 2024070203. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.0203.v1 Charalampopoulos, I.; Droulia, F.; Kokkoris, I. P.; Dimopoulos, P. Projections on the Spatiotemporal Bioclimatic Change over the Phytogeographical Regions of Greece by the Emberger Index. Preprints 2024, 2024070203. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.0203.v1

Abstract

Unquestionably the rapidly changing climate and, therefore, alterations in the associated bioclimate, constitute an alarming reality with implications in daily practice and natural capital management. In this research the present and projected bioclimate evolution over the phytogeographical regions of Greece is displayed. For this purpose, ultrahigh-resolution computation results on the spatial distribution of the Emberger index’s Q2 classes of bioclimatic characterisation are analysed and illustrated for the first time. The assessments are performed over the reference period (1970–2000) and two future time frames (2021–2040; 2041–2060) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. By 2060 and under the extreme RCP8.5, intense xerothermic trends are demonstrated owing to the resulting significant spatial evolution mainly of the Arid-Hot, Semi-Arid-Very Hot, Semi-Arid-Hot and Semi-Arid-Temperate Q2 classes, respectively, over the phytogeographical regions of Kiklades (up to 29% occupation), Kriti and Karpathos (up to 30%), West Aegean Islands (up to 26%), North East (up to 56%)–North Central (up to 31%). The RCP8.5 long-term period exhibits the strongest impacts over approximately the right half of the Greek territory the bioclimate of which appears as more dry-thermal in the future.

Keywords

climate change; climate projections; aridisation; bioclimate classification; Southern Europe; Greece; natural capital management

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology

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