preprints.org > social sciences > other > doi: 10.20944/preprints202407.0496.v1 (registering DOI)

Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 4 July 2024 / Approved: 5 July 2024 / Online: 5 July 2024 (08:37:18 CEST)

One of the main problems for managing global crises is to clarify and reduces drivers of systemic weaknesses to face complex emergencies. This study here analyzes the relation between public debt, healthcare expenditures and fatality rates in the presence of pandemic crises, such as COVID-19. Statistical evidence, based on a sample of European countries, here shows that high public debt over time reduces health expenditures and increases the vulnerability of countries to face emergencies, such as COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Regression analysis with a log-log model suggests that when European countries experience a 1% increase in healthcare expenditure per capita, in general they have a 1.2% reduction in the COVID-19 fatality rate. Main implications of this study to reduce the systemic risk and vulnerability to environmental threats are that countries must reduce public debt with good governance and institutions without reducing the allocation of economic resources to the healthcare sector in order to improve the preparedness to unforeseen emergencies and crises, such as pandemics, natural disasters, conflicts, and other environmental threats.

government debt; country risk; crisis management; disaster risk management; social disaster; intentional disaster; health expenditures; systemic vulnerability; COVID-19; public policies; preparedness strategies; complex emergencies; environmental threats; global crises

Social Sciences, Other

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