Version 1
: Received: 7 August 2024 / Approved: 7 August 2024 / Online: 8 August 2024 (12:05:49 CEST)
How to cite:
Chatklang, S.; Tongdeenok, P.; Kaewjampa, N. Investigating Hydrological Drought Characteristics and Different Return Periods in Semi-Arid Regions under CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios. Preprints2024, 2024080567. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0567.v1
Chatklang, S.; Tongdeenok, P.; Kaewjampa, N. Investigating Hydrological Drought Characteristics and Different Return Periods in Semi-Arid Regions under CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios. Preprints 2024, 2024080567. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0567.v1
Chatklang, S.; Tongdeenok, P.; Kaewjampa, N. Investigating Hydrological Drought Characteristics and Different Return Periods in Semi-Arid Regions under CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios. Preprints2024, 2024080567. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0567.v1
APA Style
Chatklang, S., Tongdeenok, P., & Kaewjampa, N. (2024). Investigating Hydrological Drought Characteristics and Different Return Periods in Semi-Arid Regions under CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0567.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Chatklang, S., Piyapong Tongdeenok and Naruemol Kaewjampa. 2024 "Investigating Hydrological Drought Characteristics and Different Return Periods in Semi-Arid Regions under CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0567.v1
Abstract
This study analyzes future hydrological droughts in LCKW using the SWAT model and data from 2010-2021, evaluating the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) for 5, 10, 25, and 50-year return periods (RP) for 2029 and 2039 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model shows high accuracy (R² = 0.82, NSE = 0.78). Under RCP4.5, streamflow may increase by 34.74% and 18.74%, while RCP8.5 predicts significant decreases of 37.06% and 55.84%. Historical data reveal frequent short-term droughts during SDI-3, notably in 2014–2016 and 2020–2021, with SDI-6 indicating less frequent but severe droughts, especially in 2015 and 2020. Future projections under RCP8.5 suggest wors-ening drought conditions in 2029 and 2039, with critical drought periods from January to April and November. Wavelet analysis indicates a high risk of severe hydrological drought in LCKW due to low annual recurrence rates, with the highest drought severity over a 50-year RP. The study high-lights an increasing likelihood of frequent and severe droughts, particularly under high emission scenarios such as RCP8.5, which could result in significant water shortages and ecosystem disrup-tions. It emphasizes the significance of adaptive water resource management strategies in mitigating negative impacts on water security and ecosystem health.
Keywords
climate change; CMIP5; Hydrological Drought Characteristics; Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
