preprints.org > social sciences > transportation > doi: 10.20944/preprints202408.1130.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 14 August 2024 / Approved: 15 August 2024 / Online: 15 August 2024 (22:49:20 CEST)

Grain trade plays a pivotal role in international trade, serving not only as a primary component of the global agricultural market but also as a crucial factor in ensuring global food security and price stability. This study utilizes panel data from Russia, one of the largest players in the grain market, to investigate the determinants of cereal exports. The results of the gravity model estimation reveal a positive impact of demand factors, population differences, and the level of economic openness of importing countries, while distance and tariffs exert a negative influence on exports. The findings also indicate that Russia possesses significant untapped potential for cereal export growth, which has only increased in the context of geopolitical instability. The paper identifies regions with potential for export expansion and outlines the conditions necessary for realizing this potential. The results of this study contribute to the development of evidence-based policies aimed at enhancing the sustainability of regional export flows in global systems.

grain trade; export sustainability; gravity model; trade flows; Russian regions; sustainable development

Social Sciences, Transportation

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