Development of Urban Flood Forecasting System for Dhaka City Using MIKE+

Dhaka, one of the fastest-growing megacities, is highly vulnerable to urban flooding due to rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage systems, and climate change-induced extreme weather events. This study describes the development of a comprehensive urban flood forecasting system for Dhaka City using the MIKE+ hydrodynamic model. The system integrates hydrological and hydraulic components, modeling complex interactions among surface runoff (pluvial), riverine overflow (fluvial), drainage networks, and overland flow dynamics. The model utilizes real-time data from river gauges, rainfall stations, and pump stations to enhance forecasting accuracy. Sensitivity analysis identified ten key parameters influencing model performance, which were adjusted during calibration. The model was calibrated and validated using historical flood events from 2019 to 2022, achieving strong performance metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.65, Coefficient of Determination (R²) above 0.80, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) less than 0.1 meters. The system was further tested using significant flood events from 2020 and 2021, cross-validated with flood marks and community-reported observations, ensuring reliability. This advanced urban flood forecasting tool supports decision-making and emergency response by providing early warnings and flood scenarios, enabling proactive flood management for a rapidly urbanizing city like Dhaka.