2.3.1. Spatial Assets Identification and Economic Value Assessment
The study outlines methods for identifying and evaluating the economic value potential of five types of spatial assets in old communities.
- (1)
Asset excavation of idle facilities and space
This study uses building outlines and POIs to identify vacant facilities and further calculates restricted building areas (Equation (1)). The selection criteria of idle facilities includes floors level is less than 2, the building structure is C or D in the four-level rating from A to D from best to worst, there is no POIs in the building outline. Besides, this study considers the space within the community other than necessary buildings and public space as idle space, and uses the community area, building base area and standard greening ratio for estimation.
This study identifies vacant facilities using building outlines and points of interest (POIs), and calculates restricted building areas (Equation (1)). Criteria for selecting idle facilities include buildings with fewer than two floors, structures rated C or D on a four-level scale (from A to D, with A being the best), and buildings lacking POIs within their outlines. Additionally, spaces within the community that are not occupied by necessary buildings or public areas are considered idle spaces. The estimation of these spaces uses the community area, building base area, and standard greening ratio (Equation (2)).
where A
ib represents the area of idle facilites, A
ba denotes the base area of the building, F indicates the number of floors.
where A
is is the area of idle space, A
c is the area of the community, S
gr is the standard green space rate from the 2019 "Guangzhou Urban and Rural Planning Technical Regulations" (25% for the old city and 30% for other urban areas), A
ba is the base area of the building.
Then, idle facilities are converted into commercial and service facilities to generate rental income, while idle spaces are repurposed as parking lots to collect parking fees. Consequently, we use data on shop rents and parking fees to assess their economic value potential (Equation (3)).
where R
ae represents the revenue from asset excavation during a specific period, R
r is the shop rent from 58 Tongcheng (
https://gz.58.com/), a widely used commercial rental information website in China, and R
p denotes the parking fee based on standards issued by the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government.
- (2)
Neighborhood operation of operational facilities
This study utilizes POI data within the community to classify and calculate the total scale of various operational facilities. The average scale for each type of facility is determined through field surveys (Equation (4)).
where A
of represents the total area of operating facilities in communities, n denotes the number of types of operating facilities, A
ai is the average area of each type, and N
i is the number of facilities of each type. Field surveys reveal that business facilities in Guangzhou's old communities fall into three categories, inclduing living and catering services (average area of about 30 m²), convenience and retail stores (average area of about 50 m²), and accommodation services and offices (average area of about 100 m²).
By considering development opportunities around the community to enhance business facility rents through the introduction of suitable functions and improved environmental quality, we calculated the economic potential. This was done using city, district, and cluster-level centers identified in urban planning to determine the scope of impact, with rent increases assessed based on interview data (Equation (5)).
where R
no represents the revenue from neighborhood operation mode during a specific period, R
r is the shop rent, and R
ai is the annual growth rate of shop rents. The annual growth rates are based on the Guangzhou Territorial Spatial Master Plan (2018-2035), inclduing 8% within 1500m of city-level centers, 7% within 1000 m of district-level centers, and 6% within 500m of cluster-level centers.
- (3)
Tenancy operation of low-rent housing
This study identified old communities with rents below the average within a 150-meter radius using housing rent data. Subsequently, occupancy rates and building area data were used to calculate the rentable building area (Equation (6)).
where A
lr is the area of the low-rent housing available for rental, A
ah is the total building area of the low-rent community, and R
r is the rental ratio of the community. This ratio, derived from the seventh census data for each district, is 0.46 for Liwan, 0.45 for Baiyun and Tianhe, 0.43 for Haizhu, 0.40 for Huangpu, and 0.38 for Yuexiu.
We further assessed the rental disparity between old communities and surrounding residential areas, focusing primarily on those old communities with rents lower than those in nearby areas (Equation (7)).
where R
to represents the revenue from tenancy operation mode during a specific period, R
sa is the average rent within 150 meters of the old communities, and R
ag is the rent within the old communities.
- (4)
Public housing sale
This study utilized the public housing database from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau to measure the area of public housing in each community (Equation (8)).
where A
ph represents the total area of public housing in the old communities, A
phi is the area of public housing i, and m denotes the number of public housing units.
According to Guangzhou regulations, public housing can be sold to residents at second-hand housing prices. Therefore, we use these prices to assess the economic potential (Equation (9)).
where R
ps represents the revenue from the sale of public housing, and P
sh is the second-hand house price, sourced from Beike (
https://gz.ke.com/), a widely used housing transaction information website in China.
- (5)
Expansion and sale of low-density housing
According to the "Guidelines for the Design of Micro-regeneration of Old Communities in Guangzhou 2019," Guangzhou’s old residential areas are classified into three types: courtyard-type, street-type, and commercial housing-type. Street-type areas are low-rise urban villages, and commercial housing-type areas are modern communities with full kitchen and bathroom facilities. These two types generally do not have potential or demand for increased density. In contrast, most courtyard-type communities, which consist of 4 to 6-story buildings with limited household space and lacking kitchen and bathroom facilities, do have the potential for reconstruction and increased building area. We first classified the communities based on building height, architectural form, and age. Then, we identified those with a floor area ratio (FAR) below the upper limit set by the "Technical Regulations on Urban and Rural Planning in Guangzhou 2019" and assessed the potential for increasing density in old courtyard-type communities. (Equation (10)).
where A
di represents the density-increasing potential of the old communities, A
ah is the expansion area potential per household, and N
h is the number of households in the communities. In practice, some communities are significantly below the planned floor area ratio (FAR), making it challenging to achieve the planned FAR due to the extensive reconstruction required. Therefore, we adopted an increase of 7 m² per household to accommodate the addition of kitchen and bathroom facilities, based on the approach used in Caoyang New Village in Shanghai.
The additional buildings can be sold to residents at second-hand house prices. Therefore, we use these prices to estimate the economic potential (Equation (11)).
where R
es is the revenue of expansion and sale, P
sh is the second-hand house price.
2.3.2. Project Regeneration Sequencing and Overall Coordination
- (1)
Sequence of regeneration
The study used expert questionnaires and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the regeneration sequence. First, we selected five indicators across three categories—building characteristics, facility environment, and usage needs: building age, structure, density, facility completeness, and population density. We then distributed questionnaires to experts and scholars experienced in the planning, design, and research of old community regeneration in Guangzhou, asking them to compare the importance of these indicators in pairs. After conducting a consistency test, we used the AHP method to assign weights to each indicator. These weights were then used to calculate the urgency of regeneration for each community. Finally, we divided the regeneration tasks into a 5-year plan according to the overall goals set by the Guangzhou Municipal Government.
- (2)
Surplus of regeneration
This study used a "cost-revenue" balance approach to propose a coordinated path for regenerating old communities across various scales and timelines. It is important to note that in actual financial calculations, factors such as exchange rates, taxes, and discount rates need to be considered. However, this study focused on a macro-level estimation of economic value and did not account for these factors, aiming for a clearer and more intuitive demonstration of the results [
50].
For a single community, the surplus is calculated as the revenue minus the cost. Revenue includes income generated from the five types of spatial assets, while the cost encompasses the investment required for the regeneration of various old residential areas (Equation (12)).
where S
t is the surplus from the regeneration of a single community over a specified period, R
ps, R
es, R
ae, R
no, and R
to represent the revenues from different regeneration modes outlined in section 2.3.1. C
o denotes one-time costs, and C
c represents continuous costs. This study estimated these costs using the 2018 "General Rules for Construction Project Pricing in Guangdong Province" and the 2021 "Cost Accounting Method for Comprehensive Regeneration of Old Urban Villages in Guangzhou." One-time costs include data surveys, plan preparation, overall reconstruction, and unforeseen expenses, while continuous costs cover commercial and residential property management service fees, as well as the cost of renting houses from original owners in the unified rental operation model.
In practice, varying resource endowments often make it challenging to achieve financial balance within a single community's regeneration project. Therefore, it is essential to integrate different communities and achieve financial balance by combining various project types with different time sequences, including recent and future projects, as well as projects with both positive and negative profits, at the area level (Equation (13)).
where S
ta is the surplus from regenerating old communities at the area level, j represents the number of communities in the area, and t denotes the time since regeneration. R
psj, R
esj, R
ae, R
noj, and R
toj are the revenues from different regeneration modes for community j, C
oj and C
cj represent the one-time and continuous costs for community j respectively, T
tj indicates the time elapsed since the regeneration of community j.