preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > atmospheric science and meteorology > doi: 10.20944/preprints202409.1764.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 20 September 2024 / Approved: 23 September 2024 / Online: 24 September 2024 (07:23:22 CEST)

The objective of the study was to analyze the climate change experienced in Spain between 1971 and 2022 and to estimate the future climate (2050). The main objectives were: 1) to analyze the temporal evolution of temperature from 1971 to the present, to quantify the warming process experienced in the case study and to evaluate the increase in ex-treme heat events (heatwaves); 2) to study the evolution of the precipitation regime to determine whether there is a statistically representative trend towards a drier climate and an increase in extreme precipitation; 3) to investigate the interaction between annual precipitation and the continuous increase in temperature; and 4) to estimate the future climate scenario for mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands towards 2050, analyzing the trends in land aridity and predicting a possible change from a Mediterranean climate to a warm steppe climate, according to the Köppen classi-fication. In this study, we used the E-OBS dataset provided by the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project. E-OBS is a high-resolution gridded daily climate dataset. Its advantage over other databases is that it is based on direct climate information from the weather stations included in the Copernicus ECA&D. Furthermore, a detailed interpolation and refinement process allows a complete, uniform view of the studied territory. This dataset has pro-vided daily weather information since 1950 and is presented as a complete dataset of the European region. It is availa-ble on a regular grid of 0.1 and 0.25 degrees for the elements of daily average temperature (TG), daily minimum tem-perature (TN), daily maximum temperature (TX) and the sum of daily precipitation (RR), among other climatic varia-bles. In this study, we obtained daily temperature data, including the average, maximum and minimum temperature, and precipitation from 1971 to 2022, using the 27.0e dataset. We used information from E-OBS from 1 January 1971 to 31 December 2022, with a resolution of 0.25 degrees. The main purpose of this study was to analyze whether there is a temporal evolution of the precipitation regime in Spain towards less precipitation, and to study the relationship between annual precipitation and the tendency to-wards progressive warming. Specifically, the aim was to test the hypothesis that the increase in temperature resulting from the global warming process implies a tendency towards progressive drought. The hypothesis is + T  - RR. Given the extreme annual variability of the climate, in addition to the ordinary least squares methodology, the techniques mainly used in this study were the Mann-Kendall test and the Kendall-Theil-Sen regression. The Mann-Kendall test confirmed the statistical significance of the relationship between RR and TX, with a statistical relia-bility close to 99.9%. The KTS regression predicted a reduction of 38.25 mm for each 1°C increase. If the warming trend experienced in recent years (1973– 2022) continues, it is foreseeable that by 2050 there will be a reduction in precipitation in Spain of between 14% and 23% with respect to the precipitation of the reference period (understood as the average between 1971 and 2000). Spain’s climate is likely to vary from Mediterranean to warm steppe in the Köppen classification system (from “C” to “B”).

Climate in Spain; Global warming; Heatwaves; Drought; Extreme rainfall; Climate horizon 2050; Köppen’s climate classification

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology

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