preprints.org > public health and healthcare > public, environmental and occupational health > doi: 10.20944/preprints202409.2298.v1 (registering DOI)

Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 28 September 2024 / Approved: 29 September 2024 / Online: 29 September 2024 (07:54:25 CEST)

Background: The COVID infection became the source of serious disagreements between scientists, doctors, politicians and private citizens, directly after it’s detection in the population in January 2020. The pandemic had some very unusual properties as well as the people’s reaction to it. It was feared, that the virus might be used, intentionally or accidentally, to interfere with the usual, democratic way of the upcoming election. Objective: Re-search the original COVID statistic and metadata to obtain better understanding of the pandemic including the biological (viral) as well as the social (human) aspects of it. Provide a professional, independent, non-biased view of the pandemic, that is not polluted by political and media suggestions. Methods: Publicly available data – covering the first 5 months of the COVID pandemic, 2020 Jan-May - were collected and analyzed with the usual, common statistical methods, like student’s t-test and regression analyses.The political attitude of the states were characterized by a ratio (D/R) of the number of left, democrat (D) and right, republican (R) oriented citizens in the respective states, as determined by opinion research. Results: De novo statistical analyzes of publicly available data (covering the initial five months of the pandemic) suggests that the negative medical consequences of COVID pandemic were significantly more expressed in “democrat-dominated” (D) states than in “republican-dominated”, (R) states. The proportion of COVID test positive persons was higher in D-states (6.831 +/- 1605, n=14 and 1,165 +/- 323, n=13 respectively, p<0.001). The difference in mortality was even more striking, 8-times more person/million population died in COVID related conditions in solid D states than in solid R states (438 +/- 128, and 59 +/- 13; p<0.001, respectively). The COVID associated mortality increased two fold from right to left on the political scale of the states (2.7% +/- 0.3 vs. 5.3% +/- 0.5, p<0.001). The correlation between COVID deaths (mortality) and the age/pre-existing medical condition(s) of the diseased is very strong (R2= 0.98) and the overwhelming majority of COVID “victims” are persons who were close to death even independently of the epidemic. Conclusions: Alarming signals regarding the dangerousness of COVID infection seems to have originated in a few states with predominantly left oriented citizens (high D/R ratio). The COVID mortality statistic seems to be seen and analyzed with little or no respect for the context of mortality caused by other well-known diseases or even by the natural, age related deaths. We conclude that it is absolutely necessary to pay serious attention to the correct analyses and interpretation of the epidemic data to avoid being misled or manipulated by false circumstances.

COVID-19; pandemic; political; mortality; age; aging; co-morbidity; underlying cause of death; UCOD; USA; States

Public Health and Healthcare, Public, Environmental and Occupational Health

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