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Tennis Game Dynamic Prediction Model Based on Players’ Momentum
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This version is not peer-reviewed
Abstract
Psychological momentum dynamics in tennis have triggered interest for a long time, but measuring their impact presents substantial obstacles. In this paper, we present an approach to quantify momentum that combines real-time winning probabilities, leverage, and an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA). We test the method on a high-profile match between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, demonstrating how changes in leverage affect momentum. Furthermore, we use feature extraction methods from time series analysis to derive momentum-related characteristics, which are critical inputs for creating an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) binary classification model to predict game winners. The algorithm has an average accuracy of 84% and provides real-time predictions of each player’s chances of winning the match. Our findings indicate that momentum is a somewhat relevant element in forecasting match outcomes, highlighting its potential value in improving match prediction systems.
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Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics - Probability and Statistics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Submitted:
30 October 2024
Posted:
30 October 2024
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This version is not peer-reviewed
Submitted:
30 October 2024
Posted:
30 October 2024
Withdrawn:
Invalid date
You are already at the latest version
Alerts
Abstract
Psychological momentum dynamics in tennis have triggered interest for a long time, but measuring their impact presents substantial obstacles. In this paper, we present an approach to quantify momentum that combines real-time winning probabilities, leverage, and an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA). We test the method on a high-profile match between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, demonstrating how changes in leverage affect momentum. Furthermore, we use feature extraction methods from time series analysis to derive momentum-related characteristics, which are critical inputs for creating an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) binary classification model to predict game winners. The algorithm has an average accuracy of 84% and provides real-time predictions of each player’s chances of winning the match. Our findings indicate that momentum is a somewhat relevant element in forecasting match outcomes, highlighting its potential value in improving match prediction systems.
Keywords:
Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics - Probability and Statistics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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