Version 1
: Received: 1 November 2024 / Approved: 1 November 2024 / Online: 1 November 2024 (13:53:11 CET)
How to cite:
Hang, S.; Abbas, A.; Imin, B.; Kasim, N.; Zunun, Z. Trends and Spatiotemporal Patterns of the Meteorological Drought in the Ili River Valley from 1961 to 2023: An SPEI-Based Study. Preprints2024, 2024110065. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0065.v1
Hang, S.; Abbas, A.; Imin, B.; Kasim, N.; Zunun, Z. Trends and Spatiotemporal Patterns of the Meteorological Drought in the Ili River Valley from 1961 to 2023: An SPEI-Based Study. Preprints 2024, 2024110065. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0065.v1
Hang, S.; Abbas, A.; Imin, B.; Kasim, N.; Zunun, Z. Trends and Spatiotemporal Patterns of the Meteorological Drought in the Ili River Valley from 1961 to 2023: An SPEI-Based Study. Preprints2024, 2024110065. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0065.v1
APA Style
Hang, S., Abbas, A., Imin, B., Kasim, N., & Zunun, Z. (2024). Trends and Spatiotemporal Patterns of the Meteorological Drought in the Ili River Valley from 1961 to 2023: An SPEI-Based Study. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0065.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Hang, S., Nijat Kasim and Zinhar Zunun. 2024 "Trends and Spatiotemporal Patterns of the Meteorological Drought in the Ili River Valley from 1961 to 2023: An SPEI-Based Study" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0065.v1
Abstract
Drought presents significant challenges in arid regions, adversely impacting agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. In Xinjiang, Northwest China, although large-scale climatic phenomena are well studied, finer-scale climatic variability in subregions such as the Ili River Valley (IRV) remains understudied. This knowledge gap impairs effective agricultural planning and environmental management in this ecologically fragile but agriculturally important region. In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in the IRV from 1961 to 2023, using data from ten meteorological stations. We applied the SPEI drought Index alongside Sen's trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, the cumulative departure method, and wavelet analysis to examine drought patterns. Results indicate significant drying trends in the IRV beginning in 2005, with frequent drought events from 2015 onwards, and 2019 marking a key transition from wet to dry conditions. The overall drought rate was -0.09/10a, suggesting a milder drought severity in the IRV compared to broader Xinjiang. Seasonally, the IRV experiences drier summers and wetter winters relative to the region's averages, with negligible changes in autumn and milder drought conditions in spring. Abrupt changes in drying seasons occurred later than in Xinjiang, with delays of 5, 21, and over 37 years for spring, summer, and autumn, respectively, indicating a lagging response. Spatially, the western plains are more prone to aridification than the central and eastern mountainous regions. significant differences in drought cycles, longer than those in Xinjiang, with distinct wet-dry phases observed over multiple time scales and across seasons highlighting the complexity of drought variability in IRV. In conclusion, the Vally exhibits unique drought characteristics, with milder intensities, pronounced seasonal variation, spatial heterogeneity, and notable resilience to climate change. These findings emphasize the necessity of region-specific drought management strategies, as those effective on a larger regional scale may not be suitable for subregions.
Keywords
Ili river valley; climate change; meteorological drought; spatiotemporal evolution
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
