Version 1
: Received: 6 November 2024 / Approved: 6 November 2024 / Online: 6 November 2024 (14:59:08 CET)
How to cite:
Pinheiro, H.; Ambrizzi, T.; Hodges, A. K. Increased Extreme Precipitation in Western North America from Cut-Off Lows Under a Warming Climate. Preprints2024, 2024110406. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0406.v1
Pinheiro, H.; Ambrizzi, T.; Hodges, A. K. Increased Extreme Precipitation in Western North America from Cut-Off Lows Under a Warming Climate. Preprints 2024, 2024110406. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0406.v1
Pinheiro, H.; Ambrizzi, T.; Hodges, A. K. Increased Extreme Precipitation in Western North America from Cut-Off Lows Under a Warming Climate. Preprints2024, 2024110406. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0406.v1
APA Style
Pinheiro, H., Ambrizzi, T., & Hodges, A. K. (2024). Increased Extreme Precipitation in Western North America from Cut-Off Lows Under a Warming Climate. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0406.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Pinheiro, H., Tercio Ambrizzi and and Kevin Hodges. 2024 "Increased Extreme Precipitation in Western North America from Cut-Off Lows Under a Warming Climate" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202411.0406.v1
Abstract
Cut-off Low (COL) pressure systems significantly influence local weather in regions with high COL frequency, such as western North America. However, future changes in COL frequency, intensity, and precipitation patterns remain uncertain. This study examines projected COL changes and their drivers in western North America under a high-emission scenario (SSP585) using a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 and a feature tracking algorithm. We compare historical simulations (1980-2009) and future projections (2070-2099), revealing a marked increase in COL track density during summer in the northeast Pacific and western United States, while a strong decrease is projected for winter, associated with shifts in jet streams. Climate models project an increase in COL-related precipitation in future climate, with winter and spring experiencing more intense and localized precipitation, while autumn showing a more widespread precipitation pattern. Additionally, there is an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, though accompanied by large uncertainties. The projected increase in extreme precipitation highlights the need to understand COL dynamics for effective climate adaptation in affected areas. Further research should aim to refine projections and reduce uncertainties, supporting better-informed policy and decision-making.
Keywords
Cut-off lows; CMIP6; multi-model ensemble; climate projections; extreme precipitation; North America
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
