Urbanization is a dynamic process. At different stages of urbanization, polices of managing car-bon emissions should be adjusted. In this paper, two types of nighttime light data and statistical data of 68 cities in China from 2002 to 2021 are used to establish an urban development evalua-tion system comprising population, economy, construction, and society subsystems. Then, cities were categorized into expanding, contracting, and stable types to understand the uncertainty of urbanization's impact on carbon emissions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Integrated nighttime light data is used to extract built-up area boundaries, achieving an overall accuracy ranging from 68.75% to 98.4%, with kappa coefficients ranging between 0.60 and 0.94. (2) Ex-panding cities were concentrated in the eastern coastal regions, while contracting cities were mainly located in inland cities with traditional industries. Urban agglomerations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta region, and Chengdu-Chongqing metropolitan demonstrate synchronized characteristic of urbanization development. (3)Economy and con-struction have a greater impact on carbon emissions than population and society. For expanding cities, the focus of carbon emission governance should prioritize rational land use planning. Conversely, for contracting cities, emphasis should be placed on adjusting economic structures.