Abstract: At the time of accession, Ukraine will be covered by the full CAP instrumentarium, the system of direct payments included. Due to the size of the country, including agricultural land, the total amount of payments to Ukraine may reach the amount of EUR 96.5 billion (over 7 years) according to some estimates. The purpose of the article is to try to verify this amount. This will be done by reviewing the latest analyses, made in EU countries, on the estimates of future direct payments in Ukraine. At the same time, author’s own account of the amount of payments to agricultural producers in this country shall be presented. Unlike other studies, the calculation takes into account two elements that significantly reduce the amount of subsidies. Firstly, after accession, Ukrainian farmers will probably receive only part of the payments, which will be gradually increased (phasing-in mechanism), as was the case with Poland and other countries joining the European Union in 2004. Secondly, the calculation attempts to count the effects of the so-called capping, i.e. a ceiling for the amount of direct payments, which will probably also be applied. The result shows a smaller amount of future payments than the other studies.