We introduce the Transformation Flower Approach (TFA), a Theory of Change that attends to multiple value creation and institutional change as a dual design challenge. We highlight how the TFA integrates social scientific theories and models relevant for transformative change (in particular focusing on pathways, leverage points, governance, power, and values) and demonstrate its practical value by an application to the ongoing transformation of the Dutch food system. By providing a holistic, transdisciplinary and practically relevant approach that aims to support new social contract formation, the TFA goes beyond other transformative change approaches. Based on the notion of pathways, it offers a toolbox that aids in working towards desired futures, involving both incumbents and challengers in an effort to harness untapped yet proximal potentials in a forward-looking way. By embracing an innovation approach, it not only promises to circumvent resistance to change, but also serves as a step-by-step approach to identify options for multiple value creation and effective cooperation. We demonstrate the analytical and practical value of the TFA by discussing action perspectives at various levels and scales in the context of the Dutch food system transition, including (1) area-oriented approaches, (2) acceleration agendas for specific transformation pathways, and (3) actor-specific transformation flowers. In developing these, we emphasize the importance of interdependencies between leverage points. Our approach helps to identify opportunities to link transformative options (the what), actors (the who) and levers (the how) in dynamic interaction to embark on transformative pathways.

With consumers increasingly aware of the effects of human activity on the environment, tourism products and destinations are increasingly marketed as sustainable and socially responsible. As most sustainable practices lead to additional costs, and tourists’ decisions tend to be price sensitive, achieving sustainability goals necessarily involves understanding how much tourists are willing to pay extra for sustainable practices, as well as the antecedents of such Willingness to Pay (WTP). The present study aims to advance knowledge on the antecedents of WTP for Sustainable Destinations (WTP-4-SD), for which it builds on previous studies employing the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP). In this context, a theoretical model involving Ecotourism Attitudes, Environmental Beliefs, Climate Change-Related Risk Perceptions (CC-RRP), Environmental Concern During trip (ECDT), and Sustainable Consumption Behavior (SCB) as antecedents of WTP-4-SD is proposed. The model was tested based on data collected through an online survey, form a sample of 1,545 Spanish and Portuguese tourists, and analyzed through Structural Equations Modelling (SEM). The findings suggest that a cohesive set of attitudes and beliefs regarding the man-nature relationship, the risks of climate change and the role of tourism – which have been labelled “No Planet-B Attitudes” – is the main driver of WTP-4-SD.

A web application – IMERG Precipitation Extractor (IPE) was developed that relies on the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG-GPM) data available at a global coverage. The IPE allows users to query, visualize, and download time series satellite precipitation data for various locations, including points, watersheds, country extents, and digitized areas of interest. It supports different temporal resolutions ranging from 30 minutes to 1 week. Additionally, the IPE facilitates advanced analyses such as storm tracking and anomaly detection, which can be used to monitor climate change through variations in precipitation frequency and intensity. To validate the IMERG precipitation data for anomaly estimation over a 22-year period (2001 to 2022), the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was calculated and compared with RAI data from 2,360 NOAA stations across the conterminous United States (CONUS), considering both dry and wet climate regions. In the dry region (e.g., Nevada), the results showed an average correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.94, a percentage relative bias (PRB) of -22.32%, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.96, a mean bias ratio (MBR) of 0.74, a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.80, and a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.52. In the wet region (e.g., Louisiana), the average CC was 0.93, the PRB was 24.82%, the RMSE was 0.96, the MBR was 0.79, the NSE was 0.80, and the KGE was 0.18. Median RAI indices from both IMERG and NOAA indicated an increase in rainfall intensity and frequency since 2010, highlighting growing concerns about climate change. The study suggests that IMERG data can serve as a valuable alternative for modeling extreme rainfall anomalies in data-scarce areas, noting its possibilities, limitations, and uncertainties. The IPE web application also offers a platform for extending research beyond CONUS, advocating for further global climate change studies.

Climate change poses a significant threat to European security, implicitly to Romania’s naval forces in the Black Sea. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and ocean acidification impact maritime operations, infrastructure, and personnel, with potential ramifications for regional stability. This paper explores the implications of climate change for the Romanian Navy and proposes "Green Defence" strategies to enhance resilience and sustainability. These strategies encompass energy efficiency, renewable energy integration, sustainable procurement, and the application of advanced functional materials in naval operations and infrastructure. By adopting a proactive and multifaceted approach, the Romanian Navy can adapt to the changing climate, ensuring operational effectiveness while minimizing environmental impact. This approach aligns with broader European security concerns and contributes to a more sustainable and resilient defence posture in the face of climate-related challenges.

The Keeling Curve shows that in addition to the progressive increase in the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere, the rate of increase in the rate of uptake of CO₂ into the atmosphere, both in ppm and gigatons C/year, has been progressively increasing from 1960 to the present, despite some leveling off of man-made emissions. There is a similar processive increase in the earth’s heat imbalance. I propose that this is due to the additive effect of multiple partially activated tipping points putting the earth into a positive feedback mode such that these increases in rate will continue even after net zero emissions from fossil fuels is attained. As a result, controlling global warming will require a marked acceleration of Carbon Dioxide Removal using multiple Negative Emission Technologies.

The complexity of plastic polymers and even more so of additives has increased enormously in recent years. This makes the high-quality recycling of mixed plastic waste considerably more difficult. Some additives have now been strictly regulated or even completely banned for good reasons ('legacy additives'). Material or mechanical recycling generally utilises old plastics that still contain these substances. Consequently, products that are manufactured using such recyclates are contaminated with these harmful substances. We therefore recommend avoiding the use of these recyclates for products with intensive contact with consumers until further notice. We also show that the climate policy challenges for the plastics (and chemical) industry necessitate a defossilisation ('feedstock change'). This turnaround can only succeed if solely high-quality recycling takes place in future; recyclates should primarily replace virgin plastics. This can only work if used plastics with a high degree of homogeneity and known formulation are collected separately, as is already the case today with PET bottles. In this context, we would like to point out inconsistencies in the current legislation on the European emissions trading system.

Currently, one of the main challenges is the mitigation of the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector. Conventional agriculture, with the intensive use of herbicides and pesticides to control weeds and pests, and the improper use of mineral fertilizers, contributes to climate change by causing increased greenhouse gases and groundwater pollution. Therefore, more innovative technologies must be used to overcome these problems. One possible solution is nanotechnology, which has the potential to revolutionize the conventional agricultural system. Active nanoparticles can be used both as a direct source of micronutrients and as a delivery platform for bioactive agrochemicals to improve crop growth, yield and quality. The use of nanoparticle formulations, including nanopesticides, nanoherbicides, nano-fertilizers and nano-emulsions, has been extensively studied to improve crop health and shelf life of agricultural products. Comprehensive knowledge of the interactions between plants and nanoparticles opens up new opportunities to improve cropping practices through the enhancement of properties such as disease resistance, crop yield, and nutrient use. The main objective of this review is to analyze the main effects of climate change on conventional agricultural practices, such as the use of pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers. It also focuses on how the introduction of nanoparticles into conventional practices can improve the efficiency of chemical pest control and crop nutrition. Finally, this review examines in depth the last 10 years (2014-2024) of scientific literature regarding the use of nanoparticles in agriculture to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Deploying onshore wind energy as a cornerstone of future global energy systems challenges societies and decision-makers worldwide. Expanding wind energy should contribute to a more sustainable electricity generation without harnessing humans and their environment. Opponents often highlight the negative environmental impacts of wind energy to impede its expansion. This study reviews 152 studies to synthesize, summarize, and discuss critically the current knowledge, research gaps, and mitigation strategies on the environmental impacts of onshore wind energy. The investigated effects comprise impacts on the abiotic and biotic environment, with birds and bats in particular, noise and visual impacts. Effects are discussed in the context of social acceptance, other energy technologies, and wind energy expansion in forests. The review illustrates that many effects are highly case-specific and must be more generalizable. Studies are biased regarding the research focus and areas, needing more standardized research methods and long-term measurements. Most studies focus on the direct mortality of birds and bats at wind farms and are concentrated in Europe and North America. Knowledge gaps persist for many impact categories, and the efficacy of mitigation strategies has yet to be proven. More targeted, unbiased research is required that allows for an objective evaluation of the environmental impacts of wind energy and strategies to mitigate them. Impacts, such as those on biodiversity, need to be addressed in the context of other anthropogenic influences and the benefits of wind energy. This forms the basis for a socially acceptable, efficient, and sustainable expansion of wind energy.

This study investigates the mean annual water temperature trends at the confluence of the Sava and Danube Rivers, along with air temperature trends at the Belgrade meteorological station, spanning from 1956 to 2020. Results reveal a consistent increase in temperature across all three measuring stations, with the Danube experiencing a rise of 0.34°C/10 years, the Sava at 0.44°C/10 years, and Belgrade's air temperature increasing by 0.39°C/10 years. Employing the RAPS method, sharp rises in water temperature were pinpointed in 1989 for the Sava and 1990 for the Danube, while Belgrade's air temperature surge began in 1998. The highest intensity of air temperature increase within the recent period (1998-2020) was observed at the Belgrade observatory, reaching 0.76°C/10 years. Notably, the Sava exhibited a faster increase in water temperature over the last thirty years compared to the Danube. August marked the peak average water temperature for both rivers, while July recorded the highest average air temperature in Belgrade. Despite differing flow rates, both rivers exhibit similar hydrological regimes, with maximum flows occurring in April and minimum flows in August for the Sava, and October for the Danube. Seasonal temperature increases were most pronounced in summer, notably in August, with the smallest rises occurring during cold periods. Additionally, an inverse proportional relationship between mean annual water temperatures and discharges was observed at both river stations.

This study investigates the impacts of climate change policies on businesses across various sectors, aiming to understand how these regulations affect operational, financial, and strategic aspects of business management. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, data was collected from 500 businesses through surveys and interviews, encompassing a wide range of industries, sizes, and geographic locations. The findings reveal a complex landscape where 30% of businesses report positive impacts, primarily in the renewable energy and technology sectors, citing increased demand for green products and improvements in energy efficiency. Conversely, 45% of businesses, especially from manufacturing and agriculture, experience negative impacts, including increased operational costs and regulatory compliance challenges. Notwithstanding, a significant majority of businesses are committed to enhancing their sustainability practices, viewing climate change policies as an opportunity for innovation and long-term growth. The study highlights the nuanced effects of climate change policies, emphasizing the need for sector-specific support measures to alleviate financial and operational burdens on negatively impacted businesses. Moreover, it points to a broader shift towards sustainability within the business community, suggesting that climate policies, despite their varied impacts, are driving significant changes in business strategies towards environmental stewardship.

The Australian tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) is home to approximately 18 percent of the nation’s total vascular plant species. Over the past century, human activity and industrial development have caused global climate changes, posing a severe and irreversible danger to the entire land-based ecosystem, and WTWHA is no exception. The current average annual temperature of WTWHA in FNQ is 24 °C. However, in the coming years (by 2030), the average annual temperature increase is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.4 °C compared to the climate observed between 1986 and 2005. Looking further ahead to 2070, the anticipated temperature rise is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.2 °C, with the exact range depending on future emissions. We identified 84 plant species endemic to the WTWHA in FNQ, which are already experiencing climate change threats. Few of these plants are used in herbal medicines. This study comprehensively reviewed metabolomics studies conducted on these 84 plant species until now toward understanding their physiological and metabolomics responses to global climate change. This review also discusses: i) recent developments in plant metabolomics studies that can be applied to study and understand the interactions of wet tropical plants with climatic stress, ii) medicinal plants and isolated phytochemicals with structural diversity, and iii) reported biological activities of crude extracts and isolated compounds.

SOC stock (SOCS) changes caused by land use changes are still unclear, and understanding this response is essential for many environmental policies and land management practices. In this study, we investigated the temporal-spatial and vertical distribution characteristics of SOCS on the Western Sichuan Plateau (WSP) using the sparrow search algorithm-random forest regression (SSA-RFR) models with excellent model applicability and accuracy. The temporal-spatial varia-tions in the SOCS were modeled using 1080 soil samples and a set of nine environmental covariates. We analyzed the effect of land use changes on the SOCS on the WSP. The total SOCS increased by 18.03 Tg C from 1990 to 2020. The results of this study confirmed that the SOCS in the study area has increased significantly since 2010, with an increase of 27.88 Tg C compared to the total SOCS in 2010. We found that the spatial distribution of the SOCS increased from southeast to northwest, and the vertical distribution of the SOCS in the study area decreased with increasing soil depth. Forest and grassland are the main sources of SOCS, the total SOCS in the forest and grassland accounted for 37.53 and 59.39% of the total SOC pool in 2020, respectively. Expansion of the wetlands, forest, and grassland areas could increase SOCS in the study area.

Introductions- Liveable housing environments face the menace of global climate change. In-frastructure (including buildings and houses) continuously experiences significant impacts ex-acerbated by natural variability in climate. The study addressed how climate change impacts the resilience of residential buildings, increased maintenance frequency, and the wellbeing and comfort of residents in UK residential buildings. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study used deductive reasoning and an empirical epis-temological methodology as a data-collecting basis to evaluate primary information obtained via a questionnaire. Regression analysis was ultimately employed to analyse the collected da-ta. Result/Discussions: The findings show a significant relationship between climate change and the wellbeing of the occupants of UK residential buildings. Also, the results show that social wellbeing is more important to the occupants than mental and physical wellbeing. It reveals that residential buildings in the UK suffer the cost of maintenance due to continuous reduc-tion in the building fabric's resilience to the impacts of climate change; for instance, a recent increase in rainfall/storms results in unprecedented flooding, which continues to damage the UK residential building fabrics.

Although crop conversion from annual to perennial crops has been considered as one path towards climate-smart and resource-efficient agriculture, the effects of this conversion on soil multifunctionality and biomass yields remain unclear. Here, we investigated the effects of one annual and three perennial crops (a grass (Lolium perenne), a legume (Medicago sativa), and their mixture) on soil multifunctionality and biomass yield on the Yellow River floodplain. Soil multifunctionality was assessed by the capacity of water regulation and the multifunctionality of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles. Results showed that perennial crops enhanced soil multifunctionality by 207% for L. perenne, 311% for M. sativa, and 438% for L. perenne + M. sativa, compared with annual winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The effect of perennial crops on soil multifunctionality increased with infiltration rate, dissolved organic C, microbial biomass C, and extracellular enzymatic activities for both C and N acquisition. However, we observed that perennial crops had lower biomass yield than annual crop. Therefore, the transition of agricultural landscapes to perennials needs to take into account the balance between environmental protection and food security, as well as environmental heterogeneity, to promote sustainable agricultural development.

Debates on climate change challenges around the world are moving in favour of nature-based solutions (NBS) as potential mitigation and adaptation options. Mangroves and associated blue carbon ecosystems are nature-based solutions against sea level rise and other coastal hazards. As such, protecting the existing mangrove forests and restoration of the degraded areas is integral in this aspect. However, conventional mangrove restoration approaches in high-energy areas result in poor performance due to the removal of seedlings by waves. Here, we assessed the efficacy of using modified Riley Encasement Methods in the restoration of eroding intertidal areas of Gazi Bay, Kenya. Vegetation and soil baseline data were collected in 49 square plots of 100m2; established along belt transects perpendicular to the waterline. The following mangrove vegetation data was collected; species composition, tree height (m), and stem diameter (cm); from which the importance value index (IV), basal area and standing density (stems/ha) were derived. Sediment cores were made in the center of each square plot for carbon and grain size analysis. Mangrove (Rhizophora mucronata) planting adopted a randomized complete block design (RCBD) in which the planting area was divided into three blocks (A, B, C). Within each block, treatments (bamboo and different-sized PVC pipes) were randomly assigned locations. Results show that seedlings grown within PVC encasements had high survival and growth rates, surpassing bamboo and control groups. This implies that PVC pipes offer better protection from external factors. These findings are critical in highlighting potential enhancements for the effectiveness of PVC pipes in mangrove restoration. They also reinforce on the need to consider the incorporation of PVC encasements as an alternative mangrove restoration technique in high-energy locations.

Strong convective storms can be a serious threat to modern society, influencing both the economy and human life. Thunderstorms can bring much-needed rain after a dry spell, but the nature of thunderstorm mostly causes damage due to high wind associated with it and heavy intensity rain that mostly causes quick overlandflow and flashfloods. The paper focused on the 2011 Pukkelpop event in Belgium where due to heavy thunderstorm a lot of financial damage occurred, and five casualties. In this paper we look into the basic elements that enforces the creation of a thunderstorm like CAPE and windshear. A representative grid has been taken from the Alaro-0 model of 12.5 km resolution for the analysis of the thunderstorm over Belgium which is detailed out in the methodology. The model runs of Alaro-0 from Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) is used for historical and future years for CAPE and Shear. We look into STEnv which is a composite number that can provide some insight on occurrence of thunderstorm, and STEnv is when CAPE*Shear exceeds certain threshold. In this study the threshold has been chosen as 97%. Only summer months have been taken into account into this study as summer(s) has the most thunderstorm in Belgium. The analysis of CAPE and STEnv over historical period (1977-2005), near future (2041-2069) and far future (2071-2099) shows significant increase in occurrence of thunderstorm in the 2071-2099s, specially in extreme cases such as 97% and 99% quantile. CAPE (J/Kg) increases in all future scenarios compared to the historical period. In 2071-2099s, CAPE increases from 2100 J/Kg to 2300 J/Kg (90% quantile) and from 3500 J/Kg to 3900 J/Kg (99% quantile) compared to the historical period. The number of STEnv increases from 300 to 378 in top 10% storm case (90% quantile), 158 to 218 in top 5% storm (95% quantile), 97 to 153 in top 3% storm (97% quantile) and 33 to 66 in top 1% storm (99% quantile) with a 90% confidence interval overall. Shear mostly remains unchanged. The study also shows spatial variation of CAPE, shear and STEnv over Belgium for present and future scenarios in different extremities (90%, 95%, 97% and 99% quantiles). There is a good indication that increase in CAPE translates to increase in STEnv, which is an accepted measure to predict occurrence of thunderstorm. Future climate change also amplifies the occurrence of thunderstorm, which is coherent with relevant studies. The uncertainty related to the study can be reduced with more detailed dataset and involvement of numerical weather prediction models beyond data statistics.

The evaluation of suitability for bioclimatic viticulture indices (BVIs) zones, as with any other crop, requires a well-founded knowledge of the spatial variability in climate data, which is also used to assess different grapevine cultivars and to delimit appropriate regions for vineyard production under the current climate and projected climate change. BVIs, on the other hand, are typically calculated using a small number of locations linked by climatic station sites or applied using a coarsely-resolution distributed dataset. Furthermore, often the methods applied to precisely delineate symmetrical regions are not appropriate to generate accurate maps. To provide an analysis using three temperature-based indices and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), quantifying their spatial variation, and representing the spatial patterns of each BVI throughout the Jabal Al Arab viticulture—one of the most important Syrian viticulture regions in the Eastern Mediterranean—daily temperature data from 15 meteorological stations and 57 rain gauges, considering the 1984–2014 period, and downscaled future scenarios (RCPs based on CanESM2), considering the 2016–2100 period, were utilized. The statistical method of each BVI was analyzed, and, later, they were mapped by using GIS and a hybrid interpolation (regression-kriging) approach. The regression fitting method revealed that the sum accumulation of heat and the hydro-thermal index during the growing season were highly related to elevation and distance to the seacoast variables; however, the viticulture zones varied spatially depending on which index was used and under suggested future scenarios compared to the current climate. The spatial distribution of climate in the Jabal Al Arab regions exhibits significant variability. The findings suggest that climate change projections indicate a prevalence of warmer conditions in the future. Under the RCP scenarios, the territory can be categorized into up to three bioclimatic classes for both the Heat Index (HI) and the Winter Index-Growing Degree Days (WI-GDD), in contrast to the current climate which has six classes. These results provide valuable insights into the suitability of viticulture within each climatic region and facilitate the identification of homogeneous zones. The utilization of consistent bioclimatic indices and an advanced hybrid interpolation method has enabled the delineation and comparison of bioclimatic variables of Jabal Al Arab with other regions worldwide. Such comparisons should be considered when selecting grapevine varieties and assessing the potential for grape production.

Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of compound drought-heat events (CDHEs), potentially leading to larger and more extreme fire seasons in mesic forests. Wildfire activity in subtropical China, under the influence of monsoonal rainfall, was historically limited to dry winters and rare in rainy summers. Here we seek to test that this area is on the brink of a major change in its fire regime characterized by larger fire seasons, extending into the summer, leading to increases in burned area. We analyze fire activity in Chongqing Municipality (46,890 km2), an important area in subtropical China hosting the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. We observed significant increases in summer forest fires under anomalous dry-hot summer conditions, where total burned area was 3-6 higher than the historical annual mean (largely confined to the winter season). Vapor pressure deficit, an indicator of hot and dry conditions, was a strong predictor of fire activity, with major wildfires occurring on days where VPD was higher than 3.5kPa. Results indicate that major wildfire activity may occur in the area as a result of climate change, unless strong fire prevention policies are implemented.

The Victorian Government Inquiry into wildfires that killed 173 people in 2009 has driven an Australian policy shift from self-evacuation or staying and defending a well-prepared property (‘go or stay’) to self-evacuation under catastrophic fire weather (‘leave early’). The Inquiry also led to the establishment of national ‘performance standards’ for Private Fire Shelters (PFS, that also known as bunkers). Nonetheless, incorporation of PFS into national bushfire policy remains embryonic with only Victoria having streamlined accreditation and planning approval processes. Arguments against PFS include potentially engendering complacency about preparing dwellings to survive fire and encourage risky behavior in response to a fire threat. Counteracting these arguments is research that shows that residents without PFS have low engagement with bushfire preparation and typically delay evacuation. In any case, because wildfire is unpredictable it is accepted that self-evacuation plans must have fallback positions that include sheltering ‘in place’ from the bushfire, making properly used and well maintained PFS an important element of bushfire safety. A less discussed barrier to PFS uptake outside Victoria appears to hinge on a lack of clarity about obligations for their design, certification, and consistency with planning approvals. The escalating Australian fire crisis demands much greater research and development in legal frameworks, policy and planning processes for PFS, as well as design and construction standards.

Promoting the use of solar energy resources has always faced the challenges of instability and supply-demand mismatch. The key to solving these issues is to efficiently store and utilize solar energy resources using high-performance heat storage devices. This study designed a high-performance shell-and-tube phase change thermal storage device and established a numerical model using ANSYS software to summarize the device's dynamic melting law. To verify the accuracy of the numerical simulation, a performance testing platform for the phase change thermal storage device was built to investigate the impact of factors such as inlet water temperature, inlet water flow rate, type of heat storage, and initial temperature of the device, and to reveal the change law of the device's performance. The results show that the inlet water temperature has the most significant impact on the device's heat storage and release performance. When the device's heat storage or release is used for heating, changing the inlet water flow rate has a weak and limited effect on the device's performance. However, when the device's heat release is used to provide domestic hot water, increasing the makeup water temperature and reducing the inlet water flow rate can significantly improve the device's effective heat release. Furthermore, based on the experimental validation of the model's correctness, this study further simulated and studied the impact of different factors on the device's heat storage process to optimize its structural design and provide technical references for the device's actual operation and installation. The results show that the placement of fins has a negligible effect on the performance of the heat storage device while reducing the fin spacing and increasing the fin thickness can significantly improve the melting efficiency of the phase change material (PCM). Additionally, the heat storage characteristics of the device are significantly better in the vertical installation mode than in the horizontal installation mode. This study provides theoretical guidance and technical references for the design and use of phase change thermal storage devices.

Our planet faces several serious and urgent challenges to sustainability, not just climate change. Most researchers argue that technological solutions can solve these problems. This review paper first examines the prospects for decoupling environmental damages in general from economic growth, considered at the global level, then looks at whether the recent advances in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) can help. It is argued that although absolute decoupling might have occurred in some countries, even after accounting for energy-intensive imports, it has not occurred at the global level, which is the relevant level for global sustainability problems. This conclusion is strengthened by the very high correlation over the past three decades found between GDP and several parameters relevant for sustainability, particularly for atmospheric CO2 ppm and ecological footprint as a function of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). ICT innovations relevant to energy use include smart grids and smart cities, especially smart urban transport. A review of recently published papers shows no definite findings of energy or carbon reduction, although some innovations show energy/carbon reduction potential, if given strong policy support. However, the needed policies could well give marked reductions even without ICT approaches. Overall, it is concluded that Earth’s sustainability challenges will necessitate deep energy reductions, which in turn require profound sociopolitical changes.

Landslide risk mitigation is limited by data scarcity. This could be improved using continuous landslide detection systems. In order to investigate which image types and machine learning (ML) models are most useful for landslide detection in a Norwegian setting, we compared the performance of five different ML models, for the Jølster case study (30-July-2019), in Western Norway. These included three globally pre-trained models; i) the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm, ii) a combined k-means clustering and Random Forest classification model, and iii) a convolutional neural network (CNN), and two locally-trained models, including; iv) Classification and Regression Trees and v) a U-net CNN model. Images used included Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, digital elevation model (DEM) and slope. The globally-trained models performed poorly in shadowed areas, and were all outperformed by the locally-trained models. A maximum Matthew’s correlation coefficient (MCC) score of 89% was achieved with model v, using combined Sentinel-1 and -2 images as input. This is one of the first attempts to apply deep-learning to detect landslides with both Sentinel-1 and -2 images. Using Sentinel-1 images only, the locally-trained deep-learning model significantly outperformed the conventional ML model. These findings contribute towards developing a national continuous monitoring system for landslides.

This study analyzed the impact of climate-related natural disasters (droughts, floods, storms/rainstorms) on economic and social variables. As the Africa-specific empirical literature is limited, this study used panel data from 1961–2011 on Africa. The study used a panel data regression model analysis. The results showed that climate change-related natural disasters affected Africa’s economic growth, agriculture, and poverty and caused armed conflicts. Among the disasters, droughts are the main cause of negative impact, severely affecting crops such as maize and coffee and resulting in increased urban poverty and armed conflicts. In contrast, international aid has a positive effect but the impact is insignificant compared to the negative consequences of climate-related natural disasters. Cereal food assistance has a negative crowding-out effect on cereal production. International donors should review their interventions to support Africa’s adaptative capacity to disasters. Government efficiency has reduced the number of deaths, and this is an area that supports Africa’s adaptative efforts.

Cumulative effects of landscape disturbance in forested source water regions can alter the storage of fine sediment and associated phosphorus in riverbeds, shift nutrient dynamics and degrade water quality. Here, we examine longitudinal changes in major element chemistry and particulate phosphorus (PP) fractions of river-bed sediment in an oligotrophic river during environmentally sensitive low flow conditions. Study sites along 50 km of the Crowsnest River were located below tributary inflows from sub-watersheds and represent a gradient of increasing cumulative sedi-ment pressures across a range of land disturbance types (harvesting, wildfire, and municipal wastewater discharges). Major elements (Si2O, Al2O3, Fe2O3, MnO, CaO, MgO, Na2O, K2O, Ti2O, V2O5, P2O5), loss on ignition (LOI), PP fractions (NH4CI-RP, BD-RP, NaOH-RP, HCI-RP and NaOH(85)-RP) and absolute particle size were evaluated for sediments collected in 2016 and 2017. While total PP concentrations were similar across all sites, bioavailable PP fractions (BD-RP, NaOH-RP) increased downstream with increased concentrations of Al2O3 and MnO and levels of landscape disturbance. This study highlights the longitudinal water quality impacts of increasing landscape disturbance on bioavailable PP in fine riverbed sediments and shows how the convergence of climate (wildfire) and anthropogenic (sewage effluent, harvesting, agriculture) drivers can produce legacy effects on nutrients.

This article challenges the assumption that journals and peer review are essential for developing, evaluating and disseminating scientific and other academic knowledge. It suggests a more flexible ecosystem, and examines some of the possibilities this might facilitate. The market for academic outputs should be opened up by encouraging the separation of the dissemination service from the evaluation service. Publishing research in subject-specific journals encourages compartmentalising research into rigid categories. The dissemination of knowledge would be better served by an open access, web-based repository system encompassing all disciplines. There would then be a role for organisations to assess the items in this repository to help users find relevant, high-quality work. There could be a variety of such organisations which could enable reviews from peers to be supplemented with evaluation by non-peers from a variety of different perspectives: user reviews, statistical reviews, reviews from the perspective of different disciplines, and so on. This should reduce the inevitably conservative influence of relying on two or three peers, and make the evaluation system more critical, multi-dimensional and responsive to the requirements of different audience groups, changing circumstances, and new ideas. Non-peer review might make it easier to challenge dominant paradigms, and expanding the potential audience beyond a narrow group of peers might encourage the criterion of simplicity to be taken more seriously - which is essential if human knowledge is to continue to progress.

In mountain communities like Sebei, Uganda, that are highly vulnerable to emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, community-based surveillance plays an important role in the monitoring of public health hazards. In this survey, we explored capacities of Village Health Teams (VHTs) in Sebei communities of Mount Elgon in undertaking surveillance tasks for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases in the context of a changing climate. We used participatory epidemiology techniques to elucidate VHTs’ perceptions on climate change and public health and assess their capacities in conducting surveillance for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Overall, VHTs perceived climate change to be occurring with wider impacts on public health. However, they have inadequate capacities in collecting sur-veillance data. The VHTs lack transport to navigate through their communities and have in-sufficient capacities in using mobile phones for sending alerts. They do not engage in reporting other hazards related with the environment, wildlife and domestic livestock that would ac-celerate infectious disease outbreaks. Records are not maintained for disease surveillance ac-tivities and the abilities of VHTs to analyze data are also limited. However, VHTs have access to platforms that can enable them to disseminate public health information. The VHTs thus need to be retooled to conduct their work effectively and efficiently through equipping them with adequate logistics and knowledge on collecting, storing, analyzing, and relaying data, which will improve infectious disease response and mitigation efforts.

Climate change causes weather extremes to rise in frequency and severity, which could have detrimental effects on human life, property and livelihood activity. There is significant uncertainty about the influences of anthropogenic climate change on the occurrence and severity of small-scale, sudden onset weather phenomena such as hailstorms and subsequent loss and damage. Yet, several studies indicate that there is an apparent stable connection between hailstorm activity and hailstorm damage. Severe hailstorm events are observed in Bangladesh in recent years, which are, in fact, rapid-onset disasters but low exposure in terms of giving government response and media consideration. Hence this study examines potential impacts and management strategies for loss and damage resulting from hailstorm events among smallholder farmers in Kurigram District's Phulbari Upazila of Bangladesh. Firstly, the direct and long term economic and non-economic loss and damage caused by the hailstorm on human well-beings and livelihoods were assessed. Then, the study evaluated the current adaptation, coping, management and response strategies at the institutional and community level in the context of such extreme events. Finally, a regulatory framework and implementation approaches had suggested achieving the country's resilience against disaster and climate change-induced loss and damage. Participatory Vulnerability Analysis, Key Informant Interviews and Sample Surveys accumulated the primary data for the study. In addition, secondary data were collected through analysis of literature, published and unpublished scientific articles and media reports, etc. This research outcome will help countries develop a guideline to address climate change and disaster-related loss and damage.

Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal based future emissions reductions by 33% per capita by 2030 are targeted, by implementing a set of identified nationally determined contributions (NDCs). If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost. However, anticipated conditions may not continue, and of the planned emissions reductions in the NDCs, 88% would come from the expansion of hydropower, which is driven by rainfall. If climate change causes the extreme droughts witnessed in recent years to become more frequent, embarking on Zimbabwe’s NDC future (underpinned by its official system development plan) may be expensive and further cripple the economy. Note that the economy is already being strangled by constrained power supplies due to unusually dry conditions in the Zambezi river basin. If the NDC Future is pursued, but the climate becomes drier, proactive efforts might be made to overcome the power shortages. However, this may result in a rapid ramp up of greenhouse gas emissions if the country turns to coal to reinforce its system and increase its resilience against hydropower vulnerability and the costs that would otherwise ensue. If the country were to keep its NDC investments and supplement them with more aggressive deployment of clean adaptation options, strongly positive outcomes appear possible. Specifically, this would require increased deployment of renewable energy technologies, a restructured power market, and deep increases in energy efficiency investments. In so doing, the country would not only exceed its NDC targets, but also reduce costs in a manner that is climate resilient. This would not remove the country's need for hydropower and some level of coal reliance. However, it will introduce requirements to ensure flexibility in both hydropower and coal power production. For hydropower, power stations will need to provide and be recompensed for providing ‘balancing services’, that is, storing water and producing electricity when the wind is not blowing, nor sun shining. In order to ensure continuous output from mines, it may require intelligent stockpiling combined with dynamic forecasting. This would apply not only to production in Zimbabwe, but potentially for neighboring countries. Doing so would allow predictable mining activities, but allow electricity systems to absorb low cost, low carbon hydropower at high rainfall periods. To make the NDCs resilient via clean adaptation, strong institutional restructuring is required. However, internalizing those costs and moving to advanced market structures and business cases may strain the capacity of current institutions.

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating degree-day (HDD), the cooling degree-day (CDD) and the HDD+CDD were computed from an ensemble of 7 high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These three indicators were analyzed for 1971-2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011-2040 and 2041-2070, under both RCPs. Results show that the overall spatial distribution of HDD trends for the 3 time-periods points out an increase of energy demand to heat internal environments in Portugal's northern-eastern regions, most significant under RCP8.5. It is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios; however, statistically significant linear trends were only found for 2041-2070 under RCP4.5. The need for cooling is almost negligible for the remaining periods, though linear trend values are still considerably higher for 2041-2070 under RCP8.5. By the end of 2070, higher amplitudes for all indicators are depicted for southern Algarve and Alentejo regions, mainly under RCP8.5. For 2041-2070 the Centre and Alentejo (North and Centre) regions present major positive differences for HDD(CDD) under RCP4.5(RCP8.5), within the 5 NUTS II regions predicting higher heating(cooling) requirements for some locations.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an essential condition for soil health and a potential sink for greenhouse gases. SOC dynamics in a long-term field experiment with mineral and organic fertilization on loamy sand Podzol in Vladimir Region, Russia, was traced with the dynamic carbon model RothC since 1968 until the present time. During this period, C stock increased 21% compared with the initial level in the treatment with the application of manure in an average annual rate of 10 t·ha-1. The model was also used to forecast SOC changes until 2090 for two contrasting RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios. Until 2090, the steady growth of SOC stocks is expected in all compared treatments for both climate scenarios. This rate of growth was the highest until 2040, decreased in 2040-2070 and increased again in 2070-2090 for RCP4.5. The highest annual gain was within 21-27‰ under RCP4.5 and 16-21‰ in 2020-2040 in 0-20 cm soil layer. The expected accumulation of C allows increasing current C stock 1.6-1.7 times for RCP4.5 and 2.0-2.2 times for RCP8.5 scenario. Modelling demonstrated potentially more favourable conditions for SOC stability in arable Podzols than in Retisols in Central Russia in the 21st century.

Neonicotinoids, such as dinotefuran (DF), have caused a variety of problems, such as massive loss and winter failure of the bee colony, as a price for the benefit of reducing farm work, because it continues to maintain a high insecticide activity over a long period of time. In this study, a field experiment was conducted for about six months to investigate the effects of DF on bee colonies damaged by Varroa mites. This study examined the long-term changes in such as the size of bee colonies, the intake of sugar syrup (SS), intake of pollen paste (PP), which is a vehicle for administering DF, the intake of DF, the mite-prevalence of bees and the inside and outside temperatures of hive-boxes. The variation width of the inner temperature of the hive-box is less than that of the ambient temperature (Ta). The inner temperature of the hive-box is adjusted with about 30 ℃ of Ta as the boundary. If Ta is lower than 30 ℃, the inner temperature of the box is higher than Ta, and if Ta is higher than 30 ℃, it is lower than Ta. The temperature variation width of the DF-exposed colony is greater than that of the control colony. The average intake of SS per bee per day of the DF-exposed colony is more than that of the control colony. The average intake of PP per bee per day of the DF-exposed colony is almost equal to that of the control colony. These results suggest that bees do not avoid DF, and ingest PP without distinction between toxic and pesticide-free. In the period from the start of DF administration to the colony extinction, the intake of DF per colony is about 865 µg/colony, the intake per bee is 14 ng/bee, and the intake per bee per day is less than 0.1 ng/bee/day in this work. These intakes are much lower than the previous ones (60-65 ng/bee, 0.27-2.32 ng/bee/day). These discrepancies may be because attacks of mites and Japanese giant hornets hastened the colony collapse. Seasonal changes in mite-prevalence of honeybees is approximately the same regardless of the bee colonies. At the end of August (the start of attacks by Japanese giant hornets), the mite-prevalence will increase rapidly. Even if the number of bees damaged by mites turns to decrease, the mite-prevalence will continue to increase, with approaching 100% before bee colonies become extinct. In this study, it was found that the bee colony was collapsed by the intake of a smaller amount of DF due to the synergistic effect of DF and mite-damage. To prevent a bee colony collapse, not only to make an effort to minimalize the adverse effect on the bee colony of neonicotinoids such as DF with long-term residual effect and high insecticide properties, it is necessary to reduce the damage of mites as much as possible, while considering the synergistically adverse effects of neonicotinoids and miticides.

Frequent flooding from sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the immediate climate change impacts affecting low-lying and exposed coastal communities. These communities rely upon the delivery of three-waters services for wastewater, stormwater and water supply. Due to ongoing SLR, managing these networks will increasingly be a challenge. This raises the issue of how local government can reconcile maintaining levels of service as the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties worsen over the coming decades (and beyond). Can they be adapted over time to retain levels of service or will they eventually require retreat and if so at what adaptation threshold? This paper explores managed retreat of two-waters infrastructure (wastewater and stormwater) as an adaptation option using a Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) approach. In the study, we use DAPP to frame the retreat of two-water networks, developing a combination of an area specific retreat strategy, pathway portfolios, retreat phases, land use change signaling and identify pathway conflicts and synergies. Repurposing retreated areas by utilizing Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) options was found to extend retreat thresholds for adjacent areas. A systematic ’routine’ developed in this study provides a structured approach for managed retreat of two-water infrastructure with the aim to reduce future disruption from flooding, signal land use changes early and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies to manage expenditure over time. This approach helps inform and improve the decision-making process for the agencies and the communities they serve, by providing a stepwise process that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat adaptation option more manageable.

The study focused on two climatic variables i.e. precipitation and stream flow for analysing change in trend of rainfall for the River Ssezibwa Catchment area and stream flow of River Ssezibwa. This Catchment is found in the districts of Mukono and Buikwe in Uganda. In this area agriculture is majorly dependent on rainfall and irrigation on a small scale. However, rainfall occurrence has become unpredictable over the past few years as result of the changes in patterns of weather. This has caused severe effects on the agricultural cropping system as well as caused negative effects on the natural water resources. Stream flow data of 57 years (1960 – 2017) and rainfall data for 35 years (1982 – 2017) on a daily basis was analysed to find out the trend and detect change point. Trend analysis was done by using the non-parametric analysis while the change point detection was carried out by using the Pettit test (1979).Magnitude of trend for the time series data was carried out using Sen’s Slope estimator and Mann – Kendall test was done to determine the trend. Results from the statistical analysis highlighted that; for stream flow the trend was generally positive and change point detected to be in the year 2000 while for rainfall data analysis indicated that the trend was predominantly negative and change point was in the year 1998.

This study utilizes repeated geoacoustic mapping to quantify the morphodynamic response of the nearshore to storm-induced changes. The aim of this study was to quantitatively map the nearshore zone of Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) to determine what changes in bottom sediments, benthic fauna and fish habitat are attributable to storm events including hurricane Sandy and the passage of hurricane Joaquin. Specifically, (1) the entire domain of the National Parks Service offshore area was mapped with side-scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry at a resolution comparable to that of the existing pre-storm survey, (2) a subset of the benthic stations were resampled that represented all sediment strata previously identified, and (3) newly obtained data were compared to that from the pre-storm survey to determined changes that could be attributed to specific storms such as Sandy and Joaquin. Capturing event specific dynamics requires rapid response surveys in close temporal association of the before and after period. The time-lapse between the pre-storm surveys for Sandy and our study meant that only a time and storm integrated signature for that storm could be obtained whereas with hurricane Joaquin we could identify impacts to the habitat type and geomorphology more directly related to that particular storm. This storm impacts study provides for the National Park Service direct documentation of storm-related changes in sediments and marine habitats on multiple scales: from large scale, side-scan sonar maps and interpretation of acoustic bottom types, to characterize as fully as possible habitats from 1 to 10 m up to many kilometer scales, as well as from point benthic samples within each sediment stratum and these results can help guide management of the island resources.

In this study, the field measurement-based validation of a novel sediment transport calculation method is presented. River sections with complex bed topography and inhomogeneous bed material composition highlight the need for an improved sediment transport calculation method. The complexity of the morphodynamic features can result in the simultaneous appearance of the gravel and finer sand dominated sediment transport (e.g. parallel bed armoring and siltation) at different regions within a shorter river reach. For the improvement purpose of sediment transport calculation in such complex river beds, a novel sediment transport method was elaborated. The base concept of it is the combined use of two already existing empirical sediment transport models. The method was already validated against laboratory measurements. The major goal of this study is the verification of the novel method with a real river case study. The combining of the two sediment transport models is based on the implementation of a recently presented classification method of the locally dominant sediment transport nature (gravel or sand transport dominates). The results are compared with measured bed change maps. The verification clearly refers to the meaningful improvement in the sediment transport calculation by the novel manner in case of spatially varying bed content.

Easter Island (Rapa Nui) deforestation has traditionally been viewed as a single event, synchronous in time and space across the island and caused by Polynesian settlers. However, recent studies have challenged this idea introducing the concept of spatio-temporal heterogeneity and suggesting a role for climate change. This paper presents a continuous paleovegetation record of the last millennium (~960 to ~1710 CE), based on palynological analysis of a peat core from Lake Kao. During this time interval, deforestation was gradual, with three main pulses at ~1070 CE, ~1410 CE and ~1600 CE, likely driven by drought, anthropogenic practices (mostly fire) or the coupling of both. Some forest regeneration trends have been documented after the first and the second deforestation pulses. Forests were totally removed by 1600 CE, coinciding with the full permanent human settlement of the Kao area. Comparison with other continuous palynological records available for the last millennium (Aroi marsh and Lake Raraku), confirms that forest clearing was heterogeneous in time and space, rather than synchronous island-wide.

Results-Based Funding (RBF) for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has become an important instrument for channeling financial resources to forest conservation activities. At the same time, much literature on conservation funding is ambiguous about the effectiveness of existing RBF schemes. Many effectiveness evaluations follow a simplified version of the principal-agent model, although in practice the relation between aid providers and funding recipients is much more complex. As a consequence, intermediary steps of conservation funding are often not accounted for effectiveness studies. This research paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of conservation funding by analyzing the allocation of financial resources for one of the largest RBF schemes for REDD+ in the world: the Brazilian Amazon Fund. As part of this analysis, this study has built a dataset of information on Amazon Fund projects at unprecedented detail in order to accurately reconstruct the allocation of financial resources across different stakeholders (i.e. governments, NGOs, research institutions), geographies and activities. The results show that stakeholders seem to hold preferences with respect to the type of activities that they support, thereby suggesting that project owners exert much influence on how deforestation reduction is to be attained. There are evidences that governmental organizations lack financial additionality of their projects, which renders the growing share of funding to this type of stakeholder particularly worrisome. By contrast, the geographical distribution of financial resources seemed to follow a more focused rationale as financial support tends to concentrate in areas where deforestation threats are highest. Overall, the allocation of the financial resources from the Amazon Fund reflects an arbitrary support of different projects that adopt very diverging theories of change that are not primarily concerned with attaining further deforestation reductions. As projects owners exert influence on funding effectiveness to some extent, the Amazon Fund may either seek to regulate the allocation of financial resources more actively or adopt funding effectiveness evaluations that account for this influence more comprehensively.

The Greenland ice sheet is a major contributor to sea level rise, adding an estimated 0.47 +/− 0.23 mm/yr to global mean sea level between 1991 and 2015 (van den Broeke et al., 2016). Making sea level rise projections for the future and understanding the processes controlling current observed rates of sea level rise are crucially dependent on understanding the present-day state of the ice sheet. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of the mass budget of Greenland based on satellite gravimetry and remote sensing observations of surface elevation change, ice sheet velocity and calving front positions. We also combine these essential climate variables with a regional climate model (RCM) output from an ice sheet model (ISM) to gain insight into poorly understood ice sheet dynamical and surface mass processes. On average from 1992 to 2017 the ice sheet in some locations has lost up −2.65 m/yr in elevation based on ESA Radar altimetry analysis. Calving fronts have retreated all around Greenland since the 1990s and in only two out of 28 study locations have they remained stable. The locations of grounding lines at 5 key glaciers with floating ice tongues have remained stable over the observation period. However a detailed case study at Petermann glacier with an ice fracture model shows the sensitivity of these floating ice shelves to future climate change. GRACE gravimetric mass balance (GMB) data allows us to tie together disparate lines of evidence showing that Greenland has lost about 265 +/− 25 Gt/yr of ice over the period 2002 to 2015. RCM and ISM simulations show that surface mass processes dominate the overall Greenland ice sheet mass budget except for areas of fast ice sheet flow but marked differences between models and between models and observations indicate that not all processes are captured accurately, indicating areas of greater uncertainty and directions of future research for future sea level rise projections.

Salinity intrusion is one of the most serious consequences of climate change coupled with rising sea level that significantly affects agricultural activities in many parts of the world. This phenomenon has increasingly become more serious and frequently occurred in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. As a result, Vietnam has been ranked among top five countries where have been devastatingly impacted by climate change, in particular, its Tra Vinh Province characterized by coastal plain and alluvial deposit. In addition, this area is of the tropical monsoon zone of long rainy season with source of salt brought from the sea by the tides and sea level rise. Regions that are contaminated by salt are located in lowland and often suffer from floods linking to tidal effects with salty water from river systems and channels. Soil salinity evaluation is critical for coastal protection, restoration, and agricultural planning since it can be considered as an agricultural indicator to evaluate quality of soil. Here, we attempt to estimate the soil salinity in Tra Vinh Province, in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Landsat 8 OLI images are utilized to derive indices for soil salinity evaluation including single bands, Vegetation Soil Salinity Index (VSSI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Salinity Index (NDSI). Subsequently, satistical analysis between soil salinity, electrical conductivity (EC, dS/m), and environmental indices derived from Landsat 8 OLI image is performed. Results indicate that spectral value of Near Infrared (NIR) band and VSSI are highly correlated with EC (R2 = 0.7779 and R2 = 0.6957, respectively) in comparison with the other indices. Comparative results show that soil salinity derived from Landsat 8 is consistent with in situ data. Findings of this study demonstrate that Landsat 8 OLI images reveal a high potential for spatiotemporally monitoring the magnitude of soil salinity at the top soil layer. Outcomes of this study are useful for agricultural activities, planners, and farmers by providing the base map of soil salinity contamination for better selection of accomodating crop types to reduce economical lost in the context of climate change. Our proposed method that estimates soil salinity using satellite-derived variables can be applied in the other regions.

A multi-decadal change analysis of the irrigation ponds in Taoyuan, Taiwan was conducted by using multi-source data including digitized ancient maps, declassified single-band CORONA satellite images, and multispectral SPOT images. Supervised LULC classifications were conducted using four textural features derived from the single-band CORONA images and spectral features derived from SPOT images. Post-classification analysis revealed that the number of irrigation ponds in the study area decreased during the post-World War II farmland consolidation period (1945 – 1965) and the subsequent industrialization period (1970 – 2000). However, efforts on restoration of irrigation ponds in recent years have resulted in gradual increases in the number (9%) and total area (12%) of irrigation ponds in the study area.

Impervious surface mapping with high-resolution remote sensing imagery has attracted increasing interest as it can provide detailed information for urban structure and distribution. Previous studies have suggested that the combination of LiDAR data and high-resolution imagery for impervious surface mapping performs better than using only high-resolution imagery. However, due to the high cost of the acquisition of LiDAR data, it is difficult to obtain the multi-sensor remote sensing data acquired at the same acquisition time for impervious surface mapping. Consequently, real landscape changes between multi-sensor remote sensing data at different acquisition times would lead to the error of misclassification in impervious surface mapping. This issue has mostly been neglected in previous works. Furthermore, the observation differences generated from multi-sensor data, including the problems of misregistration, missing data in LiDAR data, and shadow in high-resolution images would also challenge the final mapping result in the fusion of LiDAR data and high-resolution images. In order to conquer these problems, we propose an improved impervious surface mapping method incorporating both LiDAR data and high-resolution imagery at different acquisition times in consideration of real landscape changes and observation differences. In the proposed method, a multi-sensor change detection by supervised multivariate alteration detection is employed to obtain changed areas and misregistration areas. The no-data areas in the LiDAR data and the shadow areas in the high-resolution imagery are extracted by independent classification yielded by its corresponding single sensor data. Finally, an object-based post-classification fusion is proposed to take advantage of independent classification results with single-sensor data and the joint classification result with stacked multi-sensor data. Experiments covering the study site in Buffalo, NY, USA demonstrate that our method can accurately detect landscape changes and obviously improve the performance of impervious surface mapping.

Mining for resources extraction may lead to several geological and associated environmental changes due to ground movements, collision with mining cavities and deformation of aquifers. Geological changes may continue in a reclaimed mine area, and the deformed aquifers may entail a breakdown of substrates and an increase in ground water tables, which may cause surface area inundation. Consequently, a reclaimed mine area may experience surface area collapse, i.e. subsidence, and degradation of vegetation health. Thus, monitoring short-term landscape dynamics in a reclaimed mine area may provide important information on the long-term geological and environmental impacts of mining activities. We studied landscape dynamics in Kirchheller Heide, Germany, which experienced extensive soil movement due to longwall mining without stowing, using Landsat imageries between 2013 and 2016. A Random Forest image classification technique was applied to analyse land-use and land-cover dynamics and the growth of wetland areas was assessed using a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). We also analyzed the changes in vegetation health using a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We observed a 19.9% growth of wetland area within the four years with 87.2% of growth in the coverage of two major waterbodies in the reclaimed mine area. NDVI values indicate that 66.5% of the vegetation of the study area was degraded due to changes in ground water tables and surface flooding. Our results inform environmental management and mining reclamation authorities about the subsidence spots and priority mitigation areas from land surface and vegetation degradation in Kirchheller Heide.

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over five decades to millennia. Globally the atmosphere and ocean is increasingly getting warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and the sea level has risen. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the total increasing temperature globally averaged combined land and surface between the average of the 1850-1900 period and the 2003 to 2012 period is 0.78 °C (0.72 to 0.85). But should we prepare for such the relatively small change? The importance is not the mean of the warming but the considerable likelihood of climate change that could trigger extreme natural hazards. The impact and the risk of climate change associated with railway infrastructure have not been fully addressed in the literature due to the difference in local environmental parameters. On the other hand, the current railway network in Malaysia, over the last decade, has been significantly affected by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Our research findings point out the extremes that can lead to asset system failure, degraded operation and ultimately, delays to train services. During the period of flood, the embankment of the track can be swept away and bridge can be demolished, while during drought, the embankment of the track can suffer from soil desiccation and embankment deterioration, high temperature increases the risk of track buckling and high winds can result in vegetation or foreign object incursion on to the infrastructure as well as additional quasi-static burden exerted. This review is of significant importance for planning and design of the newly proposed high speed rail link between Malaysia and Singapore.

Increases in water temperature caused by climate change will challenge water and species management in the San Francisco Estuary. Our goals were to describe spatial and seasonal patterns in water temperature across the upper Estuary, and evaluate how temperature stress and suitability vary across the aquatic ecosystem. We synthesized 10 years of continuous water temperature data at 75 stations across six regions of the Estuary between 2010 and 2019. We identified stressful temperature thresholds for species of interest using published physiological limits and observed distribution, including ESA-listed native (e.g., osmerids, salmonids), non-ESA-listed native (e.g., cyprinids), non-native (e.g., centrarchids, bivalves), and nuisance species such as invasive aquatic vegetation, and harmful cyanobacteria. We then quantified thermal stress across varying spatial and temporal scales and metrics. Analyses indicated there were detectable regional temperature differences, and that Suisun Bay was the only region to provide regular thermal refuge during the warmer parts of the year, though portions of the Confluence and Suisun Marsh also provided potential thermal refuge during summer/fall and during cooler parts of the day. Meanwhile, the Central and South Delta experienced the warmest temperatures, exceeding thresholds for listed species throughout summer and early fall. We found that listed species such as juvenile salmonids and osmerids experience more thermal stress across a number of metrics. Fishes with higher heat tolerance (including non-natives and select natives), aquatic vegetation, and Microcystis (a harmful cyanobacteria) had the lowest average number of thermal stress days. This study demonstrates that the Estuary is already exhibiting stressful conditions for species of concern, and thermal stress will only increase with climate change. We identify at what times of year and where the Estuary may provide refuge from thermal stress conditions which has important implications for restoration prioritization and design and species management.

The adoption of cloud-based supply chain management (SCM) solutions represents a transformative shift in how organizations manage their supply chains, offering significant advantages in terms of cost efficiency, flexibility, real-time data access, and the integration of advanced technologies. This study explores the multifaceted impacts of cloud-based SCM systems, focusing on both their benefits and the challenges encountered during their implementation. Through an in-depth analysis of interview and case study data, the research reveals that cloud-based solutions enable organizations to reduce capital and operational expenditures substantially while providing the scalability necessary to adapt to fluctuating demands. Real-time access to data enhances visibility and decision-making, and the incorporation of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning improves predictive analytics and process optimization. However, the study also identifies several critical challenges associated with the adoption of cloud-based SCM solutions. Key issues include data security concerns, integration difficulties with legacy systems, and the complexities of managing organizational change. Effective implementation requires meticulous planning, comprehensive training, and strategic vendor management to address these challenges successfully. The research highlights the importance of robust security measures, thorough integration strategies, and effective change management practices in overcoming these obstacles. The strategic outcomes of adopting cloud-based SCM solutions include improved operational efficiency, enhanced inventory management, and increased customer satisfaction. Additionally, organizations gain a competitive edge through better supplier coordination and greater responsiveness to market changes. Overall, the study demonstrates that while cloud-based SCM solutions offer substantial benefits, their successful adoption hinges on effectively managing associated challenges and leveraging their transformative potential.

Stagnating low renovation rates, vacancies and underused town centers, unprecedentedly high levels of land sealing and excessive consumption of resources through the construction of new buildings and infrastructure as well as the effects of climate change were some of the reasons for carrying out the monumentum ad usum research project.Thermodynamic simulations were used to carry out in-depth analyses of specific building parameters such as energy balances and how they are influenced by the effects of climate change. Life cycle analyses under ecological and economic aspects examined the aspects of sustainability and the individual behaviour of predominantly listed existing buildings under standardized conditions.The project results show that sustainable refurbishment can significantly increase the attractiveness of using historic and listed buildings for non-profit building owners. The results and conclusions of the project are as varied as the recommendations derived from them. In practice, old buildings consume significantly less energy than predicted in the structural calculations. Correction factors are to be developed and thermodynamic simulation calculations are to be used instead of energy performance certificates for more realistic forecasts of energy requirements and emission savings potential. The aspects of sustainability in refurbishment are essential for the protection of our architectural heritage.

South Africa’s internationally celebrated water legislation placed the responsibility for investing in water services at the door of the government. In recent years South Africa has struggled to invest adequately to keep up with growing demand for these services. The result is a suite of social, economic and environmental risks that are destabilising to the fiscus and the financial sector. This paper explored both operating and capital costs, and applied the ‘Beyond the Gap’ analysis to show that an additional 55% investment (R91 billion annually) is necessary to ensure South Africa meets its water policy goals. The analysis explores the factors that influence the investment amount and shows that a combination of policy choices and exogenous factors such as climate change could render the investment gap anywhere between 30% and 90% of the estimated current allocation to the water sector. The most significant savings are attributed to reducing the extent of “non-revenue water”, an energy transition away from coal, sharing of some water taps between (up to) five houses, reduced water allocations to agriculture, investments in invasive alien plant (IAP) clearing in water catchments above dams, and water demand management, capacity building and more efficient integration of different bulk water schemes. The study revealed important dependencies between capital and operating costs; where operating costs are ignored, the decay of water infrastructure is accelerated. Showing the contingency of investment needs on policy choices, places responsibility for attaining water policy goals and SDG 6 in the hands of a diverse set of actors. Quantifying the investment need also raises the critical question of how to raise the required investment. Recognising the need to balance risks to financiers with the widespread risks to households, companies and government when investment in water services is inadequate, South Africa is exploring a Monetary Architecture approach of inter-balance sheet relationships in an attempt to mobilise investment from new sources.

This study presents an in-depth analysis of land use and land cover change on the Kerch Peninsula over a period spanning three decades. Utilizing convolutional neural networks alongside satellite imagery analysis, we have mapped and quantified the changes in land use and cover, revealing significant trends and transformations within the peninsula's landscape. The research aims to elucidate the interplay between anthropogenic activities, climatic variations, and policy interventions in shaping land cover dynamics, thereby providing insights into the environmental and socio-economic impacts of these changes. Our findings indicate a marked increase in urban expansion at the expense of natural ecosystems, including forests and wetlands, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable land management strategies. The study highlights the role of agricultural intensification and expansion in altering the peninsula's ecological balance and emphasizes the critical importance of integrating change analysis and prediction. By leveraging advanced remote sensing and GIS technologies, our analysis not only enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics driving land use and land cover change but also showcases the potential of predictive modeling in forecasting future land cover scenarios. The implications of this study extend beyond the Kerch Peninsula, offering valuable lessons for managing land use changes and conserving natural landscapes in similar regions globally.

Nowadays, the growing concern about improving thermal comfort in textiles, asphalt pavements and buildings has stimulated research into phase change materials (PCMs). However, the incorporation of PCMs directly causes mechanical impacts. Therefore, this study herein reported focuses on designing coaxial phase change fibres using commercial cellulose acetate (CA) or recycled CA obtained from cotton fabrics (CAt) as a coating and polyethylene glycol (PEG) 2000 as a core. The phase change fibres (PCF) were produced by wet spinning, varying the parameters: (i) CA concentration, molecular weight and source (virgin versus recycled); and (ii) PEG concentration and ejection. For phase change recycled fibres (PCFt), PEG concentration and ejection were varied. The fibres were assessed for their optical, chemical, thermal and mechanical properties. Bright-field microscopy images and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) micrographs proved the coaxial structure. Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) confirmed the presence of PEG in the core. Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) proved the ability of PCFs to tolerate high temperatures. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) attested to the presence of PEG2000 peaks, since their melting points were close to those of virgin PEG2000, with a slight change in the PCFs and PCFts caused by the protective sheath of CA and CAt.

Distribution System Operators (DSOs) are adapting to changing energy demands and the shift toward renewable and decentralized energy. Circularity is increasingly relevant for DSOs as their distribution systems age and need replacing. Taking circular action, however, is generally regarded as challenging as the current circular economy (CE) landscape is highly fragmented and rarely touches the implementation level. A longitudinal case study at Dutch DSO Liander on the circu-larity of distribution transformers was used to understand empirical success factors for taking circular action and to generate prescriptive knowledge on the operationalization of circularity. Six design propositions for circular action were formulated that suggest to 1) initiate small-scale cir-cularity experiments, 2) involve technical and strategic experts, 3) synergize circularity with more urgent, primary goals 4) translate circular initiatives bottom-up and top-down, 5) collaborate with other DSOs, and 6) create multidisciplinary teams. At DSO Liander, selecting the right interventions depending on the changing context contributed to operationalizing circularity for distribution transformers and achieving circularity targets. The generalizable design propositions could assist other DSOs in optimizing their strategy toward circular action.

The paper is devoted to the study of a high-pressure short-arc xenon discharge, which is widely used as a light source. Cathodes of such lamps are often doped with thorium for better cathode operation. As a result, thorium can evaporate into a discharge. The study is based on a model of a short-arc xenon discharge plasma, which includes presence of thorium atoms in the plasma. The data obtained show that thorium atoms strongly affect the characteristics of the plasma, reducing its temperature, changing the ionic composition near the cathode, energy balance and generation of optical radiation. Especially interesting is the case when the discharge electrodes have a different shape of the working surface: the anode has a convex or concave shape; the cathode has a different cone angle. The obtained data make it possible to propose a new way to increase the luminous efficiency of xenon lamps due to the appropriate choice of the electrodes working surface shape, which turned out to be an unexpectedly strong factor of affecting plasma characteristics. This, in turn, allows us to develop xenon lamps with the desired characteristics providing optical radiation in the required range of the spectrum and better use of energy.

A proposed interpretation of the characteristics and causes of the variation in science dynamics for technological evolution is described. The theoretical approach focuses on variability in research topics that guide scientific and technological evolution. Statistical method verifies the proposed approach by applying entropy, measures of dispersion and variance decomposition. The statistical evidence, using data of four main research fields in quantum technologies, suggests the following empirical properties: a) the growth of heterogeneity in research topics is inversely proportional to the age of research fields: recent research fields have a higher variability between topics with uncertainty in evolutionary dynamics, whereas older research fields have a lower variability and more concentration in specific research topics with stable evolution towards clear directions; b) the nature of research fields has a systematic effects in variability guiding the evolution of technologies. The theoretical approach and findings clarify main characteristics and causes of the evolution of science and technologies considering the underlying homogeneity or heterogeneity in research topics, providing main implications to improve the scientific and technological forecasting that may support appropriate R&D investments towards promising research fields and technologies

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that individuals with prediabetes are significantly less likely to develop type 2 diabetes if they participate in a lifestyle change program that results in at least 5% weight loss and 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The CDC recognizes distance learning as an effective delivery mode for lifestyle change programs to prevent type 2 diabetes. The purpose of this study was to assess enrollment, engagement, and effectiveness of a type 2 diabetes prevention program (DPP) using synchronous distance technology. Eat Smart, Move More, Prevent Diabetes (ESMMPD) is an intensive 12-month DPP delivered using synchronous distance technology. Throughout 26 lessons, participants focused on healthy eating, physical activity, and mindfulness behaviors. Study findings showed a significant decrease in A1C (-0.24 p<.0001). Weight loss averaged 5.66% for those who completed the program. Based on the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, participants demonstrated statistically significant changes in self-reported confidence in their ability to perform all 18 health-promoting behaviors assessed (p<.0001). Participation in the program also resulted in the adoption of health promoting behaviors. A DPP using synchronous distance technology is an effective delivery mode to help participants adopt healthy behaviors, increase physical activity, and achieve the weight loss necessary to prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes.

(1) Background: Human-generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the largest contributor to climate change worldwide. Climate change negatively impacts human and planetary health threatening the existence of life on earth. The healthcare industry is responsible for approximately 8.5% of carbon emissions in the United States. Measuring baseline GHG emissions is the first step in emissions reduction. However, very few models of measurement exist for health care organizations. This project aimed to develop and implement a program to measure and track GHG emissions at a Midwestern Academic Medical Center (MAMC) and to educate staff to manage the process. (2) Methods: A Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) cycle and Quality Improvement methodology was used to develop, implement, and assess a standardized GHG emission inventory process to measure Scope 1 and Scope 2 baseline emissions, and provide virtual training and education to the accountable staff. A pre- and post-survey design was used to measure the knowledge and readiness of the staff after the implementation of the GHG inventory training. (3) Results: The GHG inventory process was validated through an external verification process and the measurement of Scope 1 and Scope 2 baseline GHG emissions was completed and verified for accuracy through a data comparison review. The pre-post-training survey showed an increase in the knowledge and readiness of staff in maintaining a GHG inventory. (4) Conclusions: This work shows the feasibility of obtaining baseline GHG emissions data at large medical centers. It represents the initial phase of the overarching goal to develop site-wide and system-wide carbon reduction strategies and a climate action plan within this health system.

Commercially available paraffin wax LTP ST, manufactured in Poland by POLWAX, was used as a phase change material (PCM) for passive cooling of a LED panel containing 28 high power light emitting diodes (LEDs). Paraffin wax LTP ST of density = 930 kgm-3 at room temperature (RT) was chosen over other POLWAX waxes (LUXOLINA, LUXOLINA-ST, LTP 56-20) because of its melting point range (44.5 – 55.4)℃, relatively high latent heat of fusion H = 218.8 Jg-1, high specific heat Cp = 2.11 Jg-1K-1 and thermal conductivity k=0.233 Wm-1K-1 at 0 ℃ [1]. The thermophysical properties were studied in samples of pure LTP ST paraffin and doped with multi-walled carbon nanotubes (1.99, 3.49, 5.35, 10.49 wt%, MWCNT) or silver nanowires (0.26, 0.32, 1.06, 2.10, 7.35 wt%, SNW). Analysis of the thermal effects of doped samples showed a relative increase in the degree of subcooling, averaging 100% for MWCNT and 46% for SNW , a relative 15÷25% decrease in enthalpy of melting for MWCNT and 14÷16% for SNW. A 44% increase in thermal conductivity was found for the sample containing 5.35 wt% MWCNTs and a 91% increase for 1.06 wt% SNW. The results of cooling efficiency tests for 3 types of developed heat sinks made of AW-2017A aluminum alloy are presented, i.e.: (a) - full system without PCM filling, (b) - system with PCM chamber without intracellular ribs, (c) system with PCM chamber with intracellular fins.

Conventional methods of climate change (CC) mitigation have not ‘bent the curve’ of steadily rising annual anthropic CO2 emissions or atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This study reviews the present position and likely future of such methods, using recently published literature with a global context. It particularly looks at how fast they could be implemented, given that the limited time available for avoiding catastrophic CC (CCC). The study then examines solar geoengineering, an approach often viewed as complementary to conventional mitigation. The review next introduces equity considerations, and shows how this will shorten even further the time available for effective action for CC mitigation. The main findings are as follows. Conventional mitigation approaches will be implemented too slowly to be of much help in avoiding CCC, partly because some suggested technologies are infeasible, while others are either of limited technical potential, or, like wind and solar energy, cannot be introduced fast enough. Because of these problems, solar geoengineering is increasingly advocated as a quick-acting and effective solution. However, it could have serious side effects, and given that there will be winners and losers at the international as well as the more regional level, political opposition may make it difficult to implement. The conclusion is that global energy consumption itself must be rapidly reduced to avoid catastrophic climate change.

Economic risks for livestock production are caused by volatile commodities and market conditions, but also by environmental drivers like increasing uncertainties due to weather anomalies and global warming. These risks impact the gross margin of farmers and can stimulated investment decisions. For confined pig and poultry production, farmers can reduce the environmental impact by implementing specific adaptation measures to reduce heat stress. A simulation model driven by meteorological data was used to calculate heat stress impact as a projection for 2030. For a business-as-usual livestock building, the indoor climate for several adaptation measures was calculated. The weather-related value-at risk quantified the economic risks caused by global warming and the stochastic component of the weather. The results show that only energy-saving adaptation measures to reduce the inlet air temperature are appropriate to reduce the economic risk to the level of the year 1980. The efficiency of other adaptation measures to reduce heat stress is distinctly lower. The results in this study can support the decision making of farmers concerning adaptation management and investments. It can inform agricultural policy design as well as technological development.

Miniaturization of electronics devices is often limited by the concomitant high heat fluxes (cooling load) and maldistribution of temperature profiles (hot spots). Thermal energy storage (TES) platforms providing supplemental cooling can be a cost-effective solution, that often leverages phase change materials (PCM). Although salt hydrates provide higher storage capacities and power ratings (as compared to that of the organic PCMs), they suffer from reliability issues (e.g., supercooling). ‘Cold Finger Technique (CFT)’ can obviate supercooling by maintaining a small mass fraction of the PCM in solid state for enabling spontaneous nucleation. Optimization of CFT necessitates real-time forecasting of the transient values of the melt-fraction. In this study artificial neural network (ANN) is explored for real-time prediction of the time remaining to reach a target value of melt-fraction based on the prior history of the spatial distribution of the surface temperature transients. Two different approaches were explored for training the ANN model, using: (1) transient PCM-temperature data; or (2) transient surface-temperature data. When deployed in a heat sink that leverages PCM based passive thermal management systems for cooling of electronic chips and packages, this maverick approach (using the second method) affords cheaper costs, better sustainability, higher reliability and resilience.

Bioenergetics, genetic coding, and catalysis are all difficult to imagine emerging without pre-existing historical context. That context is often posed as a “Chicken and Egg” problem; its resolution is concisely described by de Grasse Tyson: “the egg was laid by a bird that was not a chicken”. The concision and generality of that answer furnish no details—only an appropriate framework from which to examine detailed paradigms that might illuminate paradoxes underlying these three life-defining biomolecular processes. We examine experimental aspects here of five examples that all conform to the same paradigm. The paradox in each example is resolved by coupling if, and only if, conditions for two related transitions between levels. One drives, and each restricts fluxes through, or “gates” the other. That reciprocally-coupled gating, in which two gated processes constrain one another, maps onto the formal structure of “strange loops”. That mapping may help unite the axiomatic foundations of genetics, bioenergetics, and catalysis. As a physical analog for Gödel’s logic, biomolecular strange-loops provide a natural metaphor around which to organize these data, linking biology to the physics of information, free energy, and the second law of thermodynamics.

Background Oil palm (OP), Elaeis guineensis , is by far the most important global oil crop, supplying about 40% of total traded vegetable oil. Palm oils are key dietary components consumed daily by over three billion people, mostly in Asia, and also have a wide range of important non-food uses including in cleansing and sanitising products. Main body Oil palm is a perennial crop with a >25-year life cycle and an exceptionally small land footprint compared to annual oilseed crops. Oil palm crops globally produce an annual 81 million tonnes (Mt) of oil from about 19 million hectares (Mha). In contrast, the second and third largest vegetable oil crops, soybean and rapeseed, yield a combined 84 Mt oil but occupy over 163 Mha of increasingly scarce arable land. Despite this advantage, oil palm has acquired a poor environmental reputation, especially in Europe and North America, although soybean planting is now responsible for more deforestation. Oil palm crops face other challenges in the 2020s. On the demand side, these include changing consumer purchasing habits, threats to global trade systems, and diminishing demand for liquid fuels as transport systems become increasingly electrified. On the supply side, major issues include stagnant yields in ageing plantations, sluggish replanting of improved varieties, labour shortages, diseases and climatic/ environmental threats. The latter include the increasing incidence of new and existing pests/diseases and a general lack of climatic resilience, especially relating to elevated temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns. This review surveys the oil palm sector in the 2020s and beyond, its major challenges and options for future progress. Conclusions Oil palm crops face many future challenges, including emerging threats from climate change and new pests and diseases, that require more effective international collaboration. Nevertheless, new breeding technologies are providing the promise of improvements, such as much higher yielding varieties, improved oil profiles, enhanced disease resistance and modified crop architecture to enable harvesting mechanisation. The industry also needs to redouble its efforts to engage with global consumers in a constructive dialogue aimed at addressing its image problem and explaining the many benefits of its products.

Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural-urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka’s political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as a solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka’s innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings expand knowledge about innovation-urban climate mitigation as understood by Dhaka-based entrepreneurs: First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects, and were driven by different definitions of risk and competing understandings of vulnerability. Third, even the most technical climate adaptation measures were inherently political in their application. We discuss how to better position urban climate innovation infrastructures in Bangladesh and beyond, including developing a better recognition of innovation lifecycles for urban climate adaptation and widening our definitions of ‘innovation’ to better incorporate more effective and inclusive climate adaptation solutions.

There is a lack of knowledge concerning the effects of ambient heat exposure on morbidity in Northern Europe. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the relationships of daily summer-time temperature and heatwaves with cardiorespiratory hospital admissions in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. Methods: Time-series models adjusted for potential confounders such as air pollution were used to investigate the associations of daily temperature and heatwaves with cause-specific cardiorespiratory hospital admissions, during summer months of 2001-2017. Daily number of hospitalizations was obtained from the national hospital discharge register, weather information from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Results: Increased daily temperature was associated with decreased risk of total respiratory hospital admissions and asthma. Heatwave days were associated with 20.5% (95% CI: 6.9, 35.9) increased risk of pneumonia admissions and during long or intense heatwaves also with total respiratory admissions in the oldest age group (≥ 75 years). There were also suggestive positive associations between heatwave days and admissions due to myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular diseases. In contrast, risk of arrhythmia admissions was decreased 20.8% (95% CI: 8.0, 31.8) during heatwaves. Conclusions: Heatwaves, rather than single hot days, are a health threat affecting the morbidity even in a Northern climate.

Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming and thus good models for studying the future biodiversity patterns of the Alps. We have used as a model taxon Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.). All known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale. The total number of individuals was estimated at 30756 (with 72% of all individuals in canton of Bern). The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing preferentially between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that suitable area will significantly decrease, for both the entire studied area (0-30% remaining) and sites nearby current P. occidentale populations (0-17% remaining). Under the most severe scenario, the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of such patchy environments as screes.

Climate change impacts and adaptations is subject to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable development and management of the energy. In this study, spatial variation of wind power density at the turbine hub-height and its variability under future climatic scenarios are taken under consideration. An ANFIS based post-processing technique was employed to match the power outputs of the regional climate model with those obtained from the reference data. The near-surface wind data obtained from a regional climate model are employed to investigate climate change impacts on the wind power resources in the Caspian Sea. Subsequent to converting near-surface wind speed to turbine hub-height speed and computation of wind power density, the results have been investigated to reveal mean annual power, seasonal, and monthly variability for a 20-year period in the present (1981-2000) and in the future (2081-2100). The results of this study revealed that climate change does not affect the wind climate over the study area, remarkably. However, a small decrease was projected for future simulation revealing a slightly decrease in mean annual wind power in the future compared to historical simulations. Moreover, the results demonstrated strong variation in wind power in terms of temporal and spatial distribution when winter and summer have the highest values of power. The findings of this study indicated that the middle and northern parts of the Caspian Sea are placed with the highest values of wind power. However, the results of the post-processing technique using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model showed that the real potential of the wind power in the area is lower than those of projected from the regional climate model.

This paper addresses the issues of how we can quantify structural information for nonparametric distributions and how we can detect its changes. Structural information refers to an index for a global understanding of a data distribution. When we consider the problem of clustering using a parametric model such as a Gaussian mixture model, the number of mixture components (clusters) can be thought of as structural information in the model. However, there does not exist any notion of structural information for nonparametric modeling of data. In this paper we introduce a novel notion of {\em kernel complexity} (KC) as structural information in the nonparametric setting. The key idea of KC is to combine the information bias inspired by the Gini index with the information quantity measured in terms of the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) code length. We empirically show that KC has a property similar to the number of clusters in a parametric model. We further propose a framework for structural change detection with KC in nonparametric distributions. With synthetic and real data sets we empirically demonstrate that our framework enables us to detect structural changes underlying the data and their early warning signals.

African locust bean (Parkia biglobosa (Jacq.) is a multi-purpose economic tree with genetic potentials in sub-Saharan Africa. Its cultivation and production is declining with increased aging and genetically threatened throughout its natural ranges. Research efforts are needed to change the present scenario to sustainable cultivation and utilization, hence this present study. This study was aimed at evaluating genetic diversity and geographical spread relationships of twenty landraces collected from different ecological zones of Nigeria using simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. Ten SSR markers were screened and five primers (PbL02, PbL03, PbL04, PbL05 and PbL09) were selected based on clear amplification products and reproducible scorable bands. The SSR primers detected a total of 55 alleles ranged from 10 to 14 alleles with a mean of 11. The percentage polymorphisms were high and ranged from 68.75 % in PbL04 to 84.21 % in PbL05 with a mean of 74.16 %. The polymorphic information content (PIC) was in the range of 0.31 in PbL02 to 0.37 in PbL09. The genetic diversity and heterozygosity values ranged from 0.39 to 0.50 and 0.00 to 0.68 while the average genetic distance for all pair wise comparisons was 0.31.The first five Principal Component (PC) accounted for 70.20 % of the total variation out of which PC1 (31.50%) and PC2 (19.20%) extracted 49.70% molecular similarity. The dendrogram resulted in separation of the 19 landraces into three major clusters based on unweighted pair group method with arithmetic average. Cluster I comprised of five landraces: ABNo130 and BENo023; OYNo11, KANo125 and NiNo262 while cluster II had only one (BANo116). Cluster III was diverse comprising 13 landraces: ZANo188, KNNo162, KENo220, GMNo076 and EbNo260, ADNo64, EdNo164, KANo137, KENo217, KwNo270, NiNo241, OsNo206 and PLNo120. The homogeneity of alleles among the studied landraces suggested suspicion of loss of genetic intra-specific variation among the landraces of P. biglobosa which calls for concerted efforts toward better cultivation, conservation, management, utilization and genetic improvement of the species in Nigeria.

1) Background: Climate change may subject forests to climate conditions to which they are not adapted. Elevated temperatures reduce net photosynthesis by increasing respiration rates and increasingly long droughts dramatically increase morbidity. CO₂ enrichment enhances productivity, but it is not clear to what extent CO₂ enrichment can offset the negative effects of elevated temperatures and longer droughts. 2) Methods: We used a mechanistic landscape model to conduct controlled simulation experiments manipulating CO₂ concentration, temperature, drought length and soil water capacity. 3) Results: We found that elevated CO₂ stimulates productivity such that it dwarfs the negative effect caused by elevated temperature. Energy reserves were not as strongly mitigated by elevated CO₂, and mortality of less competitive cohorts increased. Drought length had a surprisingly small effect on productivity measures, but had a marked negative effect on mortality risk. 4) Conclusions: Elevated CO₂ compensated for the negative effect of longer droughts in terms of productivity measures, but not survival measures.

Energy is a fundamental ingredient in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy has increased significantly in the last number of decades, as the standard of living has improved. Renewable energy is a sustainable and clean source of energy derived from nature. Renewable energy technology is one of the solutions, which produces energy by transforming natural resources into useful energy forms. When you do something for the first time in the world, you never attain a perfect product or solution from the start. In Central Greece Lamia city, we are the first to design and implement an off-grid energy system using hydrogen energy storage technology and phase change materials for a house residence. The action plan for energy efficiency, a series of directives and incentive mechanisms, mandatory energy certification of buildings, indicate the urgent need to reduce energy consumption in buildings, which results in a more comfortable living, long service life of buildings, which in turn preserves the environment.

Implementation of the German Climate change Strategy in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt is discussed in this paper. It shares the requirement and importance of sustainable development. An overview of strategy, The DAS Indicator System is provided with results of a portion of work being done for the ministry of agriculture by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Applicability of the indicator system is also shown by evaluation of results for specific indicators from 1961-2015.

Transition zones are in the places on the track, with a change in the basic composition of the railway body. There are many sections with a sudden change in the stiffness of the structures built. When the trains are running, a longitudinal shock wave is created from the wheels, which hits these building objects with a higher stiffness and deforms the surroundings of these zones. The greatest attention should be paid mainly to the transition points from the fixed track to the classic track with a track bed, including objects of the railway substructure such as bridges, portals of tunnels, etc. As part of the research sections on the main corridor lines, a long-term inspection and monitoring was carried out with a continuous measurement system using the KRAB trolley. Height changes in the deflections of rails are evidence of their behavior. The measurements took place on a fixed track and a track with a ballast. Changes in the height jumps between the fixed railway track and the track with a gravel bed are significant and have been recorded since the tracks were put into operation. These certain height deflections allow designers to develop new, more durable construction designs.

The Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) landscape is a region of vast natural resources and biological diversity in the heart of Southeast Asia. In addition to serving as the foundation for a highly productive fisheries system, this landscape is home to numerous globally threatened species. Despite recognition by several governmental and international agencies for decades, nine protected areas have been established within this region, natural landcover such as grasslands have experienced considerable declines since the turn of the century. This project used local expert knowledge to train and validate a random forest supervised classification of Landsat satellite imagery in Google Earth Engine. The time series of thematic maps was then used to quantify the conversion of grasslands to croplands between 2004 and 2023. The classification encompassed a 10-kilometer buffer surrounding the landscape, an area of nearly 3 million hectares. The average overall accuracy for these thematic maps was 82.5% (78.5% - 87.9%), with grasslands averaging a 76.1% user’s accuracy. The change detection indicated that over 207,281 ha of grasslands were lost over this period (&gt; 59.5% of the 2004 area), with approx. 89.3% of this loss could be attributed to cropland expansion. The results of this project will inform conservation efforts focused on local scale planning and management of commercial agriculture.

Global warming leads in general to a reduction in precipitations and non-rainfall water contributions such as dew. The present study, carried out in Gujarat (India) for 17 years between 2005 and 2021, shows however a rare increase of the rain falls and dew condensation, the latter related to an increase in relative humidity and a decrease in wind amplitudes. Rain was obtained from meteo stations. Dew was calculated from an energy model and meteo data from 15 meteo stations (14 in India and 1 in Pakistan) and compared to early and dedicated measurements in 13 sites. Maps of dew, rain and their relative contributions during the period are provided. They show that, while rain mainly occurs during the monsoon (June to September), dew forms during the dry season (October to April). This water resource was mapped over the Gujarat state of India by using a kriging process. According to the site, the dew/rain ratios can represent between 4.6% (Ahmedabad) to 37.2% (Jamnagar) on the whole period of 17 years. This positive evolution, which is observed since 2015-2017, is likely to continue in the future.

The viewpoint and reaction of a country towards climate change are shaped by its political, cultural, and scientific backgrounds, in addition to the distinct characteristics of its evolving climate and the anticipated and actual consequences of the phenomenon in the times ahead. A region's climate has a significant impact on how water is managed and used, mostly in the primary sector (agroforestry systems, livestock, and agriculture), and both the distribution of ecosystem types and the amount and spreading of species on Earth. As a result, the environment and agricultural practices are affected by climate, so evaluating both distribution and evolution is extremely pertinent. Towards this aim, the climate distribution and evolution in the S. Francisco River basin (SFRB) is assessed in three periods (1970−2000, 1981−2022) in the past and 20412060 in the future from an ensemble of GCMs under two SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The Köppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification system is analyzed, and climate change impacts are inferred for this watershed located in central-eastern Brazil, covering an area equivalent to 8% of the country. Results predict the disappearance of the hot-summer (Csa) and warm-summer (Csb) Mediterranean climates, and a reduction/increase in the tropical savanna with dry winter (Aw)/dry summer (As). A striking increase in the semi-arid hot (BSh-steppe) climate is predicted with a higher percentage (10%) under SSP5-8.5. The Source and the mouth of SFRB are projected to endure the major impacts of climate change that is followed by a predicted increase/decrease in temperature/precipitation. Future freshwater resource availability, and quality for human use will all be impacted. Consequences on ecosystems, agricultural and for the socioeconomic sectors within the SFRB might deepen the current contrasts between regions, urban and rural areas, and even between population groups, thus translating to a larger extent, the inequality that still characterizes Brazilian society. Maps depicting land use and cover changes in the São Francisco River basin from 1985 to 2022 highlight tendencies such as urbanization, agricultural expansion, deforestation, and changes in shrubland and water bodies. Urban areas fluctuated slightly, while cropland significantly increased from 33.57% to 45.45%, and forest areas decreased from 3.88% to 3.50%. Socioeconomic data reveals disparities among municipalities: 74.46% with medium Human Development Index (HDI), 0.59% with very high HDI, and 9.11% with low HDI. Most municipalities have a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita below US$ 6,000. Population distribution maps show a predominance of small to medium-sized urban and rural communities, reflecting the basin's dispersed demographic and economic profile. To build routes towards a shared sustainable goal—namely, to adapt and reduce the expected climate change impacts in SFRB—it is imperative that integrated measures be conducted with the cooperation of stakeholders, local population, and decision-makers.

Telecoupling, interactions between social-ecological systems across large, often global, distances, drives negative impacts from the forest-based carbon market. Yet, these negative impacts have been underreported; and therefore, likely vastly underestimated. We identify how these unintended negative impacts may occur and provide recommendations for the forest-based carbon market to better account for externalities by prioritising positive social impact, expanding comprehensive ecological outcomes and improving transparency of investments. We call for a carbon market that is designed to account for its global interconnectedness.

The following article analyzes Italian companies with more than 10 employees that use online sales tools. The data used were acquired from the ISTAT-BES database. The article first presents a static analysis of the data aimed at framing the phenomenon in the context of Italian regional disparities. Subsequently, a clustering with k-Means algorithm is proposed by comparing the Silhouette coefficient and the Elbow method. The investigation of the innovative and technological determinants of the observed variable is carried out through the application of a panel econometric model. Finally, different machine learning algorithms for prediction are compared. The results are critically discussed with economic policy suggestions.

In the following article I analyze the determinants of regular internet users in the Italian regions. The data is analyzed both in terms of static analysis and also through the application of the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow method. Subsequently, an econometric model is presented for estimating regular internet users in the Italian regions based on variables that reflect the state of technological innovation and digital culture. The results are analyzed and discussed in light of the implications that digitalisation has for triggering economic growth.

in the following article I analyze the trend of cultural and creative employment in the Italian regions between 2004 and 2022 through the use of ISTAT-BES data. After presenting a static analysis, I also present the results of the clustering analysis aimed at identifying groupings between Italian regions. Subsequently, an econometric model is proposed for estimating the value of cultural and creative employment in the Italian regions. Finally, I compare various machine learning models for predicting the value of cultural and creative employment. The results are critically discussed through an economic policy analysis.

In the following article I take into consideration the role of knowledge workers in the Italian regions. The analysed data refers to the ISTAT-BES database. The metric analysis consists of an in-depth analysis of the trends of the regions and macro-regions, followed by clustering with the k-Means algorithm, the application of machine learning algorithms for prediction, and the presentation of an econometric model with panel methods date. The results are also critically discussed in light of the North-South divide and the economic policy implications.

Human activities and natural events alter the earth’s surface and pose a constant threat to the environment. Thus, accurately monitoring and predicting these changes in a timely manner is crucial to provide solutions and mitigate the environmental consequences beforehand. This research introduces a novel framework, called HCD-Net, for change detection using bi-temporal hyperspectral images. The framework is based on double-stream deep feature extraction and an attention mechanism. The first stream focuses on deep feature extraction through 3D convolution layers and 3D Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) blocks. The second stream focuses on deep feature extraction through 2D convolution and 2D SE blocks. The extracted deep features are then concatenated and fed to dense layers for decision-making. The efficiency of HCD-Net is compared to the state-of-the-art change detection methods. Additionally, the bi-temporal Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) hyperspectral dataset was used for further evaluation of the change detection results. The results show that HCD-Net has a higher accuracy and the lowest false alarm rate, where the overall classification accuracy is above 96%, and the kappa coefficient is over 0.9.

(1) Background: Prevention of acute cardiovascular events in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) requires promoting health-protective behaviors (e.g., physical activity) and preventing health-compromising behaviors (sitting). Digital health interventions provide much potential. Based on multiple behavioral change theory, an intervention (reCardial app) was evaluated, and the following hypotheses were tested: H1: Health behaviors (physical activity, sitting) and disease self-management (self-care maintenance, self-care confidence) are closely interrelated. H2: Change in health behaviors and disease self-management indicators over time is more pronounced in reCardial app-users. H3: In the intervention group, changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure indicate a positive trajectory. (2) Methods: A study with the design of a randomized controlled trial over 12 weeks was conducted. 40 CVD-patients were randomized equally to the Intervention Group (35% women; Mage=60.6years) and Control Group (45% women; Mage=61.5years). (3) Results: Findings support H1 with significant correlations between health behaviors (r=0.45-0.63**), and disease self-management (r=-0.32-0.54**), H2 with Eta²=0.21 (not statistically significant) and H3 partially with d=0.101 for systolic blood pressure but not regarding diastolic blood pressure. (4) Conclusions: Replications are needed with larger samples and more objective measures. The app can help prevent and manage CVD by means of promoting health-protective behaviors and preventing health-compromising behaviors. Taking different behaviors into account can increase intervention effects and with that support of users.

Cyrene was evaluated for the first time as a potential sustainable mobile phase solvent in re-versed-phase chromatography. As a benign biodegradable solvent, Cyrene is an attractive re-placement to classical non-green organic chromatographic solvents such as acetonitrile and a modifier, co-eluent to known green solvents such as ethanol. Compared to ethanol, Cyrene is less toxic, non-flammable, bio-based, biodegradable and cheaper solvent. A fire safety spider Chart was generated to compare the properties of Cyrene to ethanol and show its superiority as a greener solvent. Cyrene's behaviour, advantages, and drawbacks in reversed-phase chromatography, including cut-off value, elution power, selectivity, and effect on the column, were investigated using a model drug mixture of moxifloxacin and metronidazole. A monolithic C18 (10 x 4.6 mm) column was used as a stationary phase. Different ratios of Cyrene: ethanol with an aqueous portion of sodium acetate buffer mobile phases were tested. A mobile phase consisting of Cyrene: ethanol: 0.1 M sodium acetate buffer pH 4.25 (8:13:79, v/v) was selected as most suitable mobile phase system for separating and simultaneously determining metronidazole and moxifloxacin. The greenness and whiteness of the method were evaluated using the qualitative green assessment tool AGREE and the white analytical chemistry assessment tool RGB12. Further potentials of Cyrene as a solvent or modifier in normal phase chromatography, liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, and supercritical fluid chromatography are discussed.

Foundational and state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods through power system state estimation are reviewed. The traditional components for bad data detection such as chi-square testing, residual-based methods, and hypothesis testing are discussed to explain the motivations for recent anomaly detection methods given the increasing complexity of power grids, energy management systems, and cyber-threats. In particular, state estimation anomaly detection based on data-driven quickest change detection and artificial intelligence are discussed and directions for research are suggested with particular emphasis on considerations of the future smart grid.

The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks in-cluding significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and planned reductions to vulnerability, particu-larly in light of a warming climate. A logical starting point involves awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. We focus on the compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials as the risks from this type of event are magnified compared to the hy-droclimatic extremes in isolation. Also, research on compound droughts and pluvials is limited. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of com-pound droughts and pluvials, including examples of past occurrences, with a focus on the Cana-dian Prairies. Since literature from the Prairies is limited, global work is also reviewed. Rela-tionships between drought and pluvials are characterized using the SPEI Global Monitor for the Prairies, emphasizing the recent past, and through synthesis from the Prairie literature. That re-search mostly considers drought and pluvials as separate events, but is integrated here to charac-terize the relationships of these extremes. Examples of periods of compound droughts and exces-sive rainfall provide insights into the regional hydroclimatic variability. Furthermore, most lit-erature on future projections strongly suggests that this variability is likely to increase, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. These findings suggest means of decreasing vulnerabil-ity and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is rele-vant to other regions that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes.

The A.C.Q.U.A. (Advisable Conscious Quality Use from Assisi) project, promoted by the Climate and Energy and Heritage Design courses of the Planet Life Design Master Program, addresses the theme of the recovery and regeneration of ancient wash-houses in the context of energy, environmental sustainability and innovation, a way of understanding cultural heritage in the wider sense of heritage community through the active participation of all the actors involved: universities, institutions, businesses, students and citizens. The proposal, tested in the municipalities of Assisi and Ruviano (ITALY), involves the creation of a "Community Wash House", a new way of carrying out the usual domestic act of washing clothes in the open air, next to the places where this rite was traditionally performed, in technologically innovative constructions that use renewable energy sources and encourage a reduction in household consumption of water and energy. This project is part of the training of professionals in the new inter-university course that combines knowledge of the tools of technical and scientific design with historical and cultural perspectives in a perspective of sustainable redevelopment of existing structures in the area and the use of alternative energy sources with low climate impact, calculated using the statistics of the Copernicus CDS.

In an era of rapid technological improvements, state-of-the-art methodologies and tools dedicated to protecting and promoting our cultural heritage should be developed and extensively employed in the contemporary built environment and lifestyle. At the same time, sustainability principles underline the importance of the continuous use of historic or vernacular buildings as part of the building stock of our society. Adopting a holistic, integrated, multi-disciplinary strategy can bridge technological innovation with conserving and restoring heritage buildings. The paper presents ongoing research and results of the application of Machine Learning methods for the remote monitoring of the built environment of the historic cluster in Cypriot cities. This study is part of an integrated, multi-scale, and multi-discipline study of heritage buildings towards the creation of an online HBIM platform for urban monitoring.

The boreal Hemisphere has been experiencing increasing extreme hot and dry conditions over the past few decades, consistent with anthropogenic climate change expectations. The continental extension of the phenomenon calls for tools and techniques capable of monitoring the global to regional scales. In this context, the satellite is the only system that can satisfy the need for global coverage. The main objective we have addressed in the present paper is the capability of infrared satellite observations helping to monitor the vegetation stress due to increasing drought and heatwaves in summer. We have designed and implemented a new water deficit index (wdi) that exploits satellite observations in the infrared to retrieve humidity, air temperature, and surface temperature simultaneously. These three parameters are combined to provide the water deficit index. The index has been developed based on the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer or IASI, which covers the infrared spectral range 645 to 2760 cm-1 with a sampling of 0.25 cm-1. The index has been used to study the 2017 heatwave, which hit Continental Europe from May to October. In particular, we have examined Southern Italy, where Mediterranean forests suffer from climate change. We have computed the index's time series and show that it can be used to indicate the atmospheric background conditions associated with meteorological drought. We have also found a good agreement with soil moisture, which suggests that the persistence of anomalously high water deficit index was an essential driver of the rapid development and evolution of the exceptionally severe 2017 droughts.

Free and open source hardware (FOSH) development has been shown to increase innovation and reduce economic costs. This article reviews the opportunity to use FOSH like a sanction to undercut imports and exports from a target criminal country. A formal methodology is presented for selecting strategic national investments in FOSH development to improve both national security and global safety. In this methodology, first the target country that is threatening national security or safety is identified. Next, the top imports from the target country as well as potentially other importing countries (allies) are quantified. Hardware is identified that could undercut imports/exports from the target country. Finally, methods to support the FOSH development are enumerated to support production in a commons-based peer production strategy. To demonstrate how this theoretical method works in practice it is applied as a case study to the current criminal military aggressor nation, who is also a fossil fuel exporter. The results show there are numerous existing FOSH and opportunities to develop new FOSH for energy conservation and renewable energy to reduce fossil fuel energy demand. Widespread deployment would reduce the concomitant pollution, human health impacts, and environmental desecration as well as cut financing of military operations.

Forest degradation is known to be widespread in the tropics, but is currently very poorly mapped, in part because there is little quantitative data on which satellite sensor characteristics and analysis methods are best at detecting it. To improve this, we used data from the Tropical Forest Degradation Experiment (FODEX) plots in the southern Peruvian Amazon, where different numbers of trees had been removed from four 1 ha forest plots, carefully inventoried by hand and Terrestrial Laser Scanning before and after the logging to give a range of biomass change (ΔAGB) values. We conducted a comparative study of six multispectral optical satellite sensors (WorldView-3, SkySat, SPOT-7, PlanetScope, Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8) at 0.3 – 30 m spatial resolution, to find the best combination of sensor and remote sensing indicator for change detection. Spectral reflectance, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and texture parameters were extracted after radiometric calibration and image preprocessing. The strength of the relationships between the change in these values and field-measured ΔAGB (computed in % ha−1) was analysed. The results demonstrate that: (a) texture measures correlates more with ΔAGB than simple spectral parameters; (b) the strongest correlations are achieved for those sensors with spatial resolutions in the intermediate range (1.5 - 10 m), with finer or coarser resolutions producing worse results, and (c) when texture is computed using a moving square window ranging between 9 - 14 m in length. Maps predicting ΔAGB showed very promising results using a NIR-derived texture parameter for 3 m resolution PlanetScope (R2 = 0.97 and RMSE = 1.80 % ha−1), followed by 1.5 m SPOT-7 (R2 = 0.74 and RMSE = 5.25 % ha−1) and 10 m Sentinel-2 (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 5.55 % ha−1). Texture models derived from 0.3 m WorldView-3 improved with increasing window size, with highest R2 of 0.62 and RMSE = 6.35 % ha−1 for a window of 14 m in length. The degradation in our field plots is invisible to the 30 m resolution Landsat data. Our findings imply that, at least for lowland Peru, low-medium intensity disturbance can be detected best in optical wavelengths using a texture measure derived from 3 m PlanetScope data. That such data are being collected daily, and currently released free as monthly mosaics over tropical forests as part of the Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI), is excellent news for monitoring such degradation.

Ethanol produced from various biobased sources (bioethanol) has been gaining high attention lately due to its potential to cut down net emissions of carbon dioxide while reducing burgeoning world dependence on fossil fuels. Global ethanol production has increased more than six-fold from 18 billion liters at the turn of the century to 110 billion liters in 2019 (1,2). Sugar cane and corn have been used as the major feedstocks for ethanol production. Lignocellulosic biomass has recently been considered as another potential feedstock. This paper reviews recent developments and current status of commercial production of ethanol across the world. The review includes the ethanol production processes used for each type of feedstock, both currently practiced at commercial scale and newly developed technologies, and production trends in various regions and countries in the world.

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for ecological models and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative ecological response models. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate-ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results reveal surprisingly high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios is insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and of the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves’ climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Beside silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual field assessments. Some results contradict generally accepted concepts. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests.

Background: Globally, infections are the third leading cause of neonatal mortality. Predominant risk factors for facility-born newborns are poor hygiene practices that span both the facility and home environments. Current improvement interventions focus on only one environment and tar-get limited caregivers, primarily birth attendants and mothers. To inform the design of a hand hygiene behaviour change intervention in rural Cambodia, a formative mixed-methods research study was conducted to investigate the context specific behaviours and determinants of hand-washing among healthcare workers, maternal and non-maternal caregivers along the early new-born care continuum. Methods: Direct observations of hygiene practices of all individuals providing care to 46 newborns across eight facilities and associated communities were completed and hand hygiene compliance assessed in analysis. Semi structured interactive interviews were subsequently conducted with 35 midwives and household members to explore the corresponding cognitive, emotional, and environmental factors influencing the observed key hand hygiene behaviours. Results: Hand hygiene opportunities during newborn care were frequent in both set-tings (n = 1319) and predominantly performed by mothers, fathers and non-parental caregivers. Compliance to hand hygiene protocol across all caregivers, including midwives, was inadequate (0%). Practices were influenced by the lack of accessible physical infrastructure, time, increased workload, low infection risk perception, nurture-related motives, norms and inadequate knowledge. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that an effective intervention in this context should be multi-modal to address the different key behaviour determinants and target a wide range of caregivers.

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of abiotic stresses that lead to loss of crop yield. We investigated the effect of salinity (S), short episodes of high temperature (HS) and combination of S+HS at the reproductive phase on dead pericarps properties and yield of the crop plant Brassica juncea. Three intervals of HS resulted in massive seed abortion; seeds from salt-treated plants germinated poorly. Pericarp extracts of salt-treated plants reduced seed germination of B. juncea; all pericarp extracts completely inhibited seed germination of tomato and Arabidopsis; removal of pericarp extracts restored seed germination. HS reduced all metabolites accumulated in dead pericarps, except for upregulation of isomaltose and cellobiose. Salt induced alteration in metabolite levels including increase in proline, reduction in TCA intermediates and changes in phytohormone levels. Proteome analysis revealed hundreds of proteins stored in dead pericarps whose levels and composition were altered under salt stress. The integration of metabolic and proteomic data showed that changes in metabolites were highly correlated with changes in proteins involved in their biosynthetic pathways. Thus, besides providing a physical shield for seed/embryo protection dead pericarps store beneficial substances whose levels, composition and biological function are altered under stress, further highlighting the elaborated function of dead organs enclosing embryos in seed biology and ecology. The detrimental effect of HS on crop production might have implications for global food security in the face of climate change.

This article presents a field-performance investigation on an Integrated Solar Water Supply System (SWSS) at two isolated agricultural areas in Thailand. The two case-study villages (Pongluek and Bangkloy ) have experienced severe draughts in the last decades, and therefore water supply has become a major issue. A stand-alone 15.36 kW solar power and a 15 kW solar submersible pump were installed along with the input power generated by solar panels supported by four solar trackers. The aim is to lift water at the static head of 64 and 48 m via piping length of 400 metres for each village to be stored in 1,000 m3 and 1,800 m3 reservoirs at an average of 300 m3 and 400 m3 per day, respectively for Pongluek and Bangkloy villages. The case study results have shown that the real costs of electricity generated by SWSS using solar PV systems intergraded with the solar tracking system yield better performance and are more advantageous compared with the non-tracking system. This study illustrates how system integration has been employed. System design and commercially available simulation predictions are elaborated. Construction, installation, and field tests for SWSS are discussed and highlighted. Performances of the SWSS in different weather conditions such as sunny, cloudy, and rainy days were analysed to make valuable suggestions for higher efficiency of the integrated solar water supply systems.

Climate change and environmental degradation are major threats to sustainable agricultural development in Southern Africa. Thus, the concept of sustainable intensification (SI) i.e. getting more output from less input using certain practices such as agroforestry, organic fertilizer, sustainable water management etc. has become an important topic among researchers and policy makers in the region in the last three decades. A comprehensive review of literatures on the adoption of SI in the region identify nine relevant drivers of adoption of SI among (smallholder) farmers. These drivers include (i) age, (ii) size of arable land, (iii) education, (iv) extension services, (v) gender, (vi) household size, (vii) income, (viii) membership in farming organization and (ix) access to credit. We present the results of a meta-analysis of 21 papers on the impact of these determinants on SI adoption among (smallholder) farmers in Southern African Development Community (SADC) using random-effects estimation techniques for the true effect size. While our result suggests that variables such as extension services, education, age, and household size may influence the adoption of SI in SADC, factors such as access to credit is also of great importance. Decision-makers should therefore concentrate efforts on these factors in promoting SI across the SADC. This includes increasing the efficiency of public extension service as well as involvement of private sector in extension service. Furthermore, both public and private agriculture financing models should consider sustainability indicators in their assessment process.

Tree-killing bark beetles are the most economically important insects in conifer forests worldwide. Yet despite >200 years of research, the drivers of population eruptions or crashes are still not fully understood, precluding reliable predictions of the effects of global change on beetle population dynamics and impacts on ecosystems and humans. We critically analyze potential biotic and abiotic drivers of population dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) and present a novel ecological framework that integrates the multiple drivers governing this bark beetle system. We call for large-scale collaborative research efforts to improve our understanding of the population dynamics of this important pest; an approach that might serve as a blueprint for other eruptive forest insects.

The micropaleontological study (radiolarians and foraminifera) of the sediment core AMK-340, Reykjanes Ridge, North Atlantic, combined with the radiocarbon dating and Oxygen/Carbon isotopic record, provided data for the reconstruction of the summer paleotemperature on the water depth of 100 m, and paleoenvironments during the Termination I in the age interval of 14.5–8 ka. The response of the main microfossil species on the paleoceanographic changes within the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warming, the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event, and final transition to the warm Holocene was different. The BA warming was well reflected in the radiolarian and benthic but not planktic foraminiferal record. The high abundances of the cold-water radiolarian species Amphimelissa setosa as the Greenland/Iceland Sea indicator marked a cooling at the end of the BA and within the start of the YD at 13.2–12.3 ka. The micropaleontological and isotopic data together with the paleotemperature estimates for the Reykjanes Ridge at 60° N document that, after the warm BA, the middle YD ca. 12.5–12.2 ka was the next significant step toward the Holocene warming. Start of the Holocene interglacial conditions was reflected in abundant occurrence of the microfossils being indicators of the open boreal North Atlantic environments and lower oxygen isotope values indicating increasing warmth.

Studies comparing provider and patient views and experiences of self-management within primary healthcare are particularly scarce in disadvantaged settings. In this qualitative study, patient and provider perceptions of self-management were investigated in five socio-economically disadvantaged communities in Stockholm. Twelve individual interviews and three group interviews were conducted. Semi-structured interview guides included questions on perceptions of diabetes diagnosis, diabetes care services available at primary health care centers, patient and provider interactions, and self-management support. Data was analysed using thematic analysis. Two overarching themes were identified. These were characterized by inherent dilemmas representing confusions and conflicts that patients and providers experienced in their daily life or practice respectively: adopting and maintaining new routines through practical and appropriate lifestyle choices (patients); and balancing expectations and pre-conceptions of self-management (providers). Patients found it difficult to tailor information and lifestyle advice to fit their daily life. Healthcare providers recognized that patients were in need of support to change behavior, but saw themselves as inadequately equipped to deal with the different cultural and social aspects of self-management. This study highlights patient and provider dilemmas that influence the interaction and collaboration between patients and providers with respect to communication and uptake of self-management advice.

Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.

Recently many researches of EOS (Electric Arc Furnace Oxidizing Slag) on application to construction industry have been carried out with increasing its production and limited reclamation site. EOS can be used as a fine aggregate for construction material, however, its engineering properties vary with the manufacturing process and producing district, causing a quality differences in material performance. In the work, EOS is obtained from steel manufacturing plants in South Korea and the engineering properties are evaluated for EOS and the cement mortar with EOS, respectively. From the tests, EOS is mainly made up of CaO, SiO₂, and FeO with 18.2% of larnite which has a crystal structure of β-C₂S with similar cement mineral. EOS mortar shows an increasing compressive strength with more EOS content, which is affected by a considerable amount of larnite (β-C2S) in EOS. The EOS based mortar with ERS (Electric Arc Furnace Reduction Slag) shows unsatisfactory results over the criteria for rate of change, which implies that more consideration must be taken for the usage of the mixed ERS and EOS for cement mortar due to swelling effect of ERS on dimensional stability.