Abstract: The "spin-up" problem—where convection-permitting models require hours to develop realistic clouds from large-scale initial fields—critically limits short-term severe weather forecasting. Cloud analysis offers a potential solution by directly incorporating hydrome-teor information from remote sensing observations. In this study, we leverage multi-source remote sensing data, including three-dimensional mosaic radar reflectivity, hourly aver-aged FY-2G satellite black-body temperature (TBB), and FY-2G total cloud water products, within a stepwise cloud-analysis initialization scheme. The scheme is implemented in a convective-scale ensemble forecasting system (CMA-Meso, 3 km resolution) for a heavy rainfall event. For each ensemble member, three-dimensional hydrometeor increments are independently generated from these remote sensing retrievals and gradually introduced over the first ten time steps, ensuring smooth coordination with the model's dynam-ic-thermal framework. Results demonstrate that the remote sensing-driven cloud analysis substantially enhances ensemble system performance across multiple dimensions: (i) spin-up time is significant-ly reduced, with precipitation forecasts exhibiting reasonable structure from the initial forecast hour; (ii) deterministic forecast accuracy improves systematically, with reduced RMSE for geopotential height, temperature, and wind fields across all levels; (iii) proba-bilistic forecasting skill is enhanced, evidenced by improved CRPS and AROC for surface elements and precipitation thresholds; (iv) ensemble reliability is optimized, with spread better matching forecast errors. Mechanistic analysis reveals that these improvements stem from physically coordinated hydrometeor-latent heat initial perturbations and sub-sequent cloud-radiation feedbacks that continuously regulate thermal-dynamic structures. This study establishes that assimilating diverse remote sensing data via cloud analysis is an effective approach for addressing spin-up challenges in convective-scale ensemble prediction.

Abstract: Anxiety symptomatology and excess weight are associated with chronic low-grade inflammation. Olive Leaf Extract (OLE) contains polyphenols with antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties that have shown anxiolytic like effects in experimental models; however, evidence in humans remains limited. This randomized double-blind placebo-controlled pilot trial evaluated the effects of OLE supplementation on anxiety symptomatology, inflammatory markers, and metabolic parameters in women with excess weight and mild to moderate anxiety symptoms. Participants received OLE (750 mg/day) or placebo for 12 weeks. Anxiety symptomatology was assessed using HAM-A, BAI, and STAI, while inflammatory and metabolic parameters were evaluated at baseline and post intervention. OLE supplementation was associated with a significant reduction in HAM-A scores, particularly psychic anxiety symptoms, together with lower TNF-α levels compared with placebo at the end of the intervention. No significant differences were observed in body composition, caloric intake, IL-6, hs-CRP, cortisol, or most metabolic parameters. Correlation analyses revealed positive associations between inflammatory markers, fat mass, and anxiety related measures. These findings provide preliminary evidence suggesting that OLE supplementation may exert beneficial effects on psychic anxiety symptomatology and inflammatory activity in women with excess weight. However, larger randomized clinical trials are necessary to confirm these observations and clarify the underlying mechanisms.

Abstract: The aim of the study was to examine the effect of respiratory muscle strength parameters obtained from endurance athletes on aerobic capacity levels. A total of 70 endurance athletes, 23 females and 47 males, voluntarily participated with the study. Respiratory muscle strength of the athletes were measured with a digital spirometer. Max VO₂ was assessed using the cardiopulmonary exercise testing system (Cosmed K5). As a result of the research; MIP and MEP values were determined to be related to PETCO₂ value at maximum load in female endurance athletes. In male endurance athletes, MEP values were determined to be related to PETCO₂ values at maximum load, PETO₂ values at maximum load, MaxVO₂ values, VO₂ values at RCP, and VO₂ values at VT. Additionally, in male endurance athletes, the MIP value was determined to be related to the VCO₂ value at RCP and the VTidal value at maximum load. Other Max VO₂ sub parameters examined were not associated with respiratory muscle strength. Research results reveal that there are relationships between maximal oxygen consumption which is the most important indicator of aerobic performance and its sub-parameters and respiratory muscles.

Abstract: We present a new cosmology model---the Eternal Universe Model (hereafter, EU-model)---that emerges from a subtle but consequential modification of the standard Friedmann--Lemaitre--Robertson--Walker (FLRW) framework. At first glance, the EU-model resembles the familiar ∧CDM concordance model; its departure, however, is philosophically and physically decisive: we relinquish the assumption of temporal homogeneity. Specifically, we allow the rate at which time progresses---encoded in the 00-component [g₀₀ = a²_t (r) c²₀ ] of the spacetime metric tensor---to vary systematically with radial position throughout the infinite expanse of the Universe. This single and seemingly banal alteration in the temporal architecture of spacetime gives rise to a remarkably new and rich cosmology. It introduces the continuous creation of matter and energy; it permits the variation of Fundamental Natural Constants (FNCs); it accommodates non-ponderable negative matter as a natural substrate for antimatter; and it endows the Universe with a fixed, absolute spatial centre from which all motion may be referenced. Furthermore, this framework offers natural explanations for the Hubble tension and the Cosmological Axis of Evil. The Universe that emerges is temporally and spatially infinite, globally unchanging, and truly eternal---with no beginning and no end.

Abstract: The dynamics of organic matter, nitrogen status, and biological activity in soils in southern Kazakhstan under various land-use systems were studied. A key feature of the research is the comprehensive comparison of humus status, nitrogen state, and biological activity of virgin and arable dark Kastanozem, Gleyic Calcisol, and Haplic Calcisol, as well as identification of their correlation with signs of functional depletion of organic component. The assessment was conducted using set of agrochemical and biological methods, including determination of humus content, available nitrogen forms, C/N ratio, microbial population, and enzymatic activity. It has been determined that the highest humus content is typical for dark chestnut soils under natural vegetation, while plowing of them is accompanied by decrease in humus content due to increased mineralization processes. Gleyic Calcisol - are characterized by more stable humus state, in some cases with increased organic matter content under arable conditions. Minimum humus values were found in Haplic Calcisol, due to arid conditions and limited supply of organic residues. It is shown that arable soils are characterized by a decreased C/N ratio and increased rates of organic matter transformation. Soil biological activity is linked to mineralization processes, as confirmed by microbial population dynamics and enzymatic activity. Additional assessment using digital tools reveals signs of functional depletion of organic component in agrocenoses. The obtained results indicate the need to consider biological indicators when assessing soil conditions and developing sustainable land management systems in arid climates.

Abstract: The Fermi Paradox (“Where is everybody?”) refers to the apparent contradiction between the visualisable abundance of extraterrestrial civilizations and the continued absence of confirmed detections. This work explores whether finite communicative lifetimes, combined with Galactic distance scales and the finite speed of light, can substantially suppress the probability of causal overlap between technological civilizations. Using a simplified stationary Galactic model (v = 0) within a Minkowski spacetime framework, technological civilizations are represented as finite world-line segments generating expanding “Information Shells” through electromagnetic signal propagation. Within this interpretation, successful detectability requires overlap between the communicative intervals of different civilizations in both space and time. For representative communicative lifetimes of order L ~ 10³ years, the effective causal reach of detectable signals remains small compared with typical interstellar separations expected in sparse-civilization scenarios. Using a heuristic overlap model, we estimate that for N = 100 contemporaneous civilizations distributed throughout the Milky Way, the effective causal-overlap probability remains below 1% . The analysis further considers long-term engineering limitations on autonomous probes and persistent signalling systems, including radiation damage, impact erosion, and power degradation, collectively described here as a “Hardware Filter.” In addition, the work distinguishes between the total biological lifetime of a civilization and its externally detectable communicative phase, suggesting that advanced civilizations may evolve toward increasingly low-leakage or radio-quiet technological states. Within this framework, the apparent “Great Silence” may emerge naturally from finite communicative windows, spacetime separation, and engineering constraints even if intelligent life itself is not intrinsically rare.

Abstract: Objective. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are major contributors to morbidity and mortality in Thailand, yet the effectiveness of lifestyle counselling within routine practice is underexplored. This rapid realist review examined how, for whom, and under what circumstances lifestyle counselling supports behaviour change among Thai adults. Design. Rapid realist review following guidance from the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Synthesis: Evolving Standards. Setting. Lifestyle counselling and health-coaching interventions for NCD prevention and management delivered in Thai primary care, community settings, or digitally supported programmes. Data sources. Six international and Thai databases (Scopus, Google Scholar, ProQuest, PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), ThaiJo) were searched for studies published between 2005 and 2025. Eligibility criteria. Empirical studies involving adults (≥18 years) in Thailand that described lifestyle counselling or coaching interventions for NCD-related prevention or management and reported outcomes. Data extraction and synthesis. Data were extracted to identify contexts (C), mechanisms (M), outcomes (O), and equity considerations. These were synthesised into context–mechanism–outcome configurations (CMOCs) and helped to form programme theories. Two Thai doctoral students with community health experience provided public involvement feedback on cultural relevance and feasibility. Results. Thirteen studies were included. Nineteen explanatory configurations were identified across six mechanisms: self-efficacy, social support, motivation, accountability, emotional resilience, and relevance and engagement. Mechanisms were strengthened by family-centred education, routine self-monitoring with feedback, culturally or literacy-tailored materials, and brief stress-regulation strategies. Barriers included low health and digital literacy, conflicting norms, short programme duration, and rural workforce constraints. Facilitators included plain-language materials, low-tech or hybrid follow-up, co-designed dietary strategies, and task-sharing with village health volunteers and family members. Public contributors emphasised cultural alignment, feasibility, and equity. Conclusions. Lifestyle counselling in Thailand operates through six key mechanisms shaped by cultural norms, family dynamics, village health volunteers and service capacity. Effective programmes should prioritise long-term, low-intensity support; cultural and literacy tailoring; and hybrid low-tech maintenance. These findings provide theory-driven guidance for designing and implementing future lifestyle counselling interventions.

Abstract: Background: Social-cognition assessment often relies on endpoint measures such as accuracy, which provide limited information about how social stimuli are visually sampled. Eye-tracking can capture visual-sampling processes, but the meaning of gaze metrics depends on task structure. Objective: To examine the feasibility and preliminary informativeness of eye-tracking during two computerized social-cognition tasks in healthy adults. Methods: Nineteen healthy adults completed a full-face facial emotion-recognition task (TREC) and the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) while gaze was recorded. Measures included fixation count, cumulative fixation duration, and reaction time. TREC analyses examined gaze allocation across the eyes, nose, mouth, and facial hemifields. Analyses were exploratory and hypothesis-generating. Results: In the TREC, gaze was mainly allocated to the eyes and nose, with less sampling of the mouth. Higher TREC performance was accompanied by greater eye-region and left-hemiface viewing. Negative expressions elicited more fixations, and older participants showed greater eye-region sampling. In the RMET, participants showed higher fixation count, longer cumulative fixation duration, and longer response time than in the TREC, but gaze metrics were not clearly associated with demographic or performance variables. Conclusions: Eye-tracking was feasible and yielded coherent, task-dependent visual-sampling patterns in this small pilot sample. Full-face stimuli enabled spatially resolved gaze characterization, whereas eye-region stimuli mainly provided global inspection metrics. Findings are preliminary and should inform larger studies testing the clinical or mechanistic value of gaze-derived measures.

Abstract: We present ChestPathCT5-S100, an open dataset of 87 real-world chest CT examinations spanning five common thoracic pathologies: rib fracture, pleural effusion, lung mass, pulmonary embolism, and pneumothorax. The dataset was assembled from a retrospective single-centre cohort over a ten-year period, intentionally preserving acquisition heterogeneity and concomitant findings representative of routine clinical practice. Cases include both contrast-enhanced (arterial and venous phase) and non-contrast examinations, drawn from emergency, oncologic, and trauma settings. All imaging volumes are provided in NIfTI format. Technical validation by two radiologists confirmed correct pathology category assignment, image integrity, and unambiguous visibility of the dominant pathology for each case. A binary co-occurrence matrix of concomitant findings is provided to support multi-label research designs. ChestPathCT5-S100 is publicly available on Zenodo under a CC0 1.0 license, permitting unrestricted use and redistribution. The dataset supports classification, detection, weakly supervised learning, and multi-task learning paradigms.

Abstract: The volatile compounds(VOCs) evolution of wild ginseng (WG) across growth years is not a unidirectional process but a divergent remodeling of the chemical fingerprint. In this study, HS-GC-IMS combined with chemometrics was employed to characterize the dynamic changes of VOCs in WG at four growth stages(10, 15, 20, and 25 years; n≥15 per group). A total of 68 VOCs were tentatively identified and semi-quantified, encompassing terpenes, aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, esters, pyrazines, and other classes. Among them, terpenes and pyrazines exhibited the most pronounced directional trends, marking the divergent evolution: terpenes such as camphene, (E,E)-α-farnesene, and β-ionone accumulated progressively (increases of 242%, 74.6%, and 93.4% from 10 to 25 years, respectively), whereas pyrazines including 2,3,5-trimethylpyrazine and 2,5-dimethylpyrazine declined continuously (decreases of 58.2% and 53.3%, respectively). In contrast, the majority of compounds(66%) displayed non-monotonic patterns, including stage-specific metabolic peaks and environmentally driven fluctuations, underscoring the complexity of this divergent evolution. Partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) effectively distinguished samples across growth years (R²Y=0.997, Q²=0.993), with a 200-times permutation test confirming no overfitting(R²=0.136,Q² intercept=−0.505). Twenty-nine differential compounds with variable importance in projection (VIP)>1 were identified as potential chemical markers, and a multi-marker combinatorial system was tentatively established for discriminating three growth stages (10–15, 15–20, and 20–25 years). These findings provide chemical evidence that WG flavor quality evolves divergently over time, suggesting that VOCs fingerprint could serve as a supplementary tool for growth-year assessment, particularly for "high-quality but poor-shape" specimens that are undervalued by traditional morphology-based methods.

Abstract: UBE3A is a dosage-sensitive HECT E3 ubiquitin ligase whose neuronal expression is shaped by genomic imprinting at the 15q11.2–q13 locus. Opposite directions of UBE3A dosage imbalance contribute to distinct neurodevelopmental phenotypes: loss of maternal UBE3A underlies Angelman syndrome, whereas maternally derived duplications involving UBE3A contribute to Dup15q-associated syndromic autism phenotypes. This review synthesizes evidence across molecular architecture, isoform biology, neuronal imprinting, synaptic regulation, circuit excitability, and therapeutic development. The central argument is that UBE3A should not be interpreted as a general explanation for autism, but as a mechanistically informative model for a defined subset of neurodevelopmental disorders in which parent-of-origin effects and copy-number state are central. In Angelman syndrome, UBE3A loss disrupts proteostasis, synaptic plasticity, inhibitory circuit function, and neuronal excitability through distributed rather than single-pathway mechanisms. In maternal Dup15q syndrome, increased UBE3A dosage is strongly implicated in neuronal and synaptic abnormalities, although interval-wide dosage effects also contribute. Therapeutically, the direction of dosage change creates opposite translational requirements: restoration or paternal reactivation in Angelman syndrome versus dosage normalization in Dup15q-associated gain-of-function states. A dosage-directionality framework may therefore clarify how UBE3A biology connects molecular mechanism, developmental timing, and precision therapeutic design.

Abstract: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is clinically heterogeneous, and peripheral inflammatory biomarkers may help clarify early biological mechanisms before illness chronicity or pharmacologic treatment confound interpretation. This systematic review synthesized evidence on peripheral inflammatory biomarkers in first-episode, drug-naïve major depressive disorder (FEDN-MDD) compared with healthy controls and examined associations with clinical severity. Following PRISMA 2020, searches of PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and Scopus from inception to March 19, 2026 identified 313 records; after screening, 16 publications were included in qualitative synthesis. Studies varied in age group, biological matrix, assay platform, and statistical reporting, precluding meta-analysis. The most frequently assessed biomarkers were IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-6, and CRP/hs-CRP. IL-6 showed the clearest recurrent tendency toward elevation in FEDN-MDD, whereas CRP/hs-CRP findings were partially positive but methodologically limited. TNF-α and IL-1β findings were mixed, and clinical correlations with depressive severity were sparse and inconsistent. Overall, the evidence supports heterogeneous early immune dysregulation in a subset of patients with FEDN-MDD rather than a single reproducible inflammatory signature. Peripheral inflammatory biomarkers should currently be considered research tools for biological stratification and mechanistic hypothesis generation, pending larger standardized longitudinal studies.

Abstract: To address the large model size, high computational cost, and limited deployment re-sources of keyword spotting models on edge platforms, this study proposes a collaborative multi-compression acceleration framework for lightweight deployment. Built on an end-to-end convolutional neural network for keyword spotting, the framework integrates adaptive structured pruning, hardware-friendly mixed-precision dynamic quantization, and quantization-aware multi-stage knowledge distillation into a unified compression pipeline. To eliminate the influence of inconsistent training budgets and data partitions across different compression branches, the results of quantization, pruning, distillation, and joint compression are reorganized under a unified evaluation protocol with mul-ti-seed mean ± std reporting. Under this protocol, the retrained baseline reaches 97.13% ± 0.85. Experimental results show that, in the quantization branch, MPDQ achieves 95.78% ± 1.69 with a compression ratio of 9.56×, demonstrating the most favorable balance be-tween accuracy and storage efficiency; in the pruning branch, AIASP reaches 95.63% ± 0.67 at 30% sparsity with a compression ratio of 1.43×, indicating a balanced compromise between accuracy retention and stability; in the distillation branch, PMKD, Multi-Teacher KD, and Fixed-T KD achieve 96.81% ± 0.69, 95.99% ± 1.18, and 96.70% ± 0.74, respectively, showing that the student model can maintain strong recognition performance under ap-proximately 4× structural compression; and the final joint compression scheme reaches 96.16% ± 0.53 with a trade-off score of 4.26 at a compression ratio of 9.89×. These results indicate that the main advantage of collaborative multi-compression lies in achieving a more balanced optimization among accuracy, model size, and compression efficiency un-der stringent deployment constraints.

Abstract: The human gut microbiota plays a central role in shaping host immunity, metabolic homeostasis and resistance to infection. Beyond microbial metabolites, increasing evidence highlights the importance of microbial and probiotic-derived proteins as key mediators of host-microbe communication. These proteins participate in immune signalling, epithelial barrier regulation and competitive interactions with intestinal pathogens. This review synthesizes current knowledge on the protein biochemistry of gut microbes and probiotics, emphasizing their mechanisms of immune modulation and roles in host-pathogen interactions. We discuss surface-associated proteins, secreted effectors, peptides and extracellular vesicle associated proteins that influence innate and adaptive immune responses. Furthermore, we explore how probiotic strains counteract pathogenic microbes through protein-mediated mechanisms and immune training. Finally, we highlight translational implications, emerging technologies and future directions for protein focussed microbiome research. This integrative perspective aims to advance the mechanistic understanding of gut microbiota-immune interactions and inform the development of next generation probiotic and therapeutic strategies.

Abstract: Background: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) remains a major threat to global tuberculosis control, particularly in high-burden rural settings where transmission is driven by both biological and socio-structural determinants. Although genomic surveillance and mathematical transmission modelling have improved understanding of resistance evolution and transmission dynamics, these approaches often insufficiently incorporate community-level behavioral and social drivers of disease spread. This study integrated Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR) within a genomic–epidemiological modelling framework to develop a biosocial understanding of DR-TB transmission dynamics in a rural South African setting. Methods: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on 32 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates to identify resistance-associated mutations, phylogenetic lineages, and potential transmission clusters. A deterministic two-strain transmission model distinguishing drug-sensitive (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) tuberculosis was developed to simulate transmission dynamics. CBPR-informed mechanisms were incorporated into the model through modifications of key epidemiological parameters, including transmission rate (β), treatment initiation rate (γ), and resistance amplification rate (α), reflecting the influence of community engagement, treatment adherence, and health-seeking behavior. Scenario-based simulations evaluating varying levels of community-engaged interventions were conducted over a 10-year period. Results: A substantial burden of drug resistance was observed, with 84.4% of isolates resistant to at least one anti-tuberculosis drug. Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) accounted for 46.9% of isolates, while recurrent combinations of resistance-associated mutations suggested ongoing transmission of resistant strain lineages. Lineage 2 (Beijing genotype) and Lineage 4 predominated, with advanced resistance patterns occurring mainly within Lineage 2 isolates. Model simulations indicated that CBPR-informed interventions could reduce DS-TB transmission by approximately 40–60% and DR-TB transmission by 20–35%. Scenario-based estimates also indicated a higher transmission potential for DR-TB (R₀ ≈ 2.04) than for DS-TB (R₀ ≈ 1.29). Community-engaged interventions reduced transmission by improving treatment adherence, earlier diagnosis, and enhanced infection-prevention behaviors. Conclusions: Integrating CBPR into genomic and transmission modelling frameworks provides a novel biosocial approach for understanding tuberculosis dynamics in high-burden settings. The findings suggest that community-engaged interventions can substantially influence key epidemiological drivers of transmission and resistance amplification. Embedding community participation within TB surveillance and control strategies may strengthen efforts to reduce transmission, improve treatment continuity, and address the social determinants underpinning DR-TB persistence in rural settings.

Abstract: Cardiotonic steroids (CTS) can modulate central nervous system function through their interaction with the Na⁺,K⁺-ATPase, affecting dopaminergic transmission. While the CTS ouabain is known to induce mania-like behavior and oxidative damage, the effects of other CTS are less clear. This study examined the effects of 14-day intracerebroventricular administration of 1.5 μl 100 μM marinobufagenin (MBG) on locomotion, gait, monoamine metabolism, and oxidative stress markers (MDA, SOD, catalase, MAO-B) in C57BL/6 mice. Chronic MBG caused increased locomotor activity and time spent in the center of the open field. Unlike ouabain, chronic MBG did not impair motor function, evaluated via gait analysis. MBG elevated striatal MAO-B activity and reduced prefrontal MDA levels, with no changes in SOD or catalase, indicating that it did not cause oxidative stress. However, it did affect dopamine and serotonin metabolism. Monoamine tissue content evaluation on day 15 showed increased dopamine turnover in the striatum and brain stem, and decreased it in the thalamus. Norepinephrine levels increased in the striatum and hippocampus. Serotonin turnover increased in the prefrontal cortex. These results indicate that chronic MBG increases locomotion and reduces anxiety-like behavior through region-specific modulation of dopaminergic and serotonergic signaling distinct from that caused by ouabain.

Abstract: Background: Staphylococcus argenteus is a recently recognized member of the Staphylococcus aureus complex that is almost identical to S. aureus phenotypically and by 16S rRNA gene sequences. Although genomic analyses demonstrate that S. argenteus is phylogenetically distinct from S. aureus, the two species exhibit more than 90% nucleotide identity and routine identification methods—including routine biochemical assays and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS)—cannot reliably distinguish between the two. Objectives: We develop and validate a MALDI-TOF MS–based model for accurate identification of S. argenteus. Methods: A multiplex PCR assay targeting crtM and NRPS genes served as the reference standard. MALDI-TOF MS spectra from 25 S. argenteus and 25 methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) isolates were analyzed using ClinProTools to identify characteristic peaks and develop the identification model. The model was validated using 40 S. argenteus and 80 MSSA isolates, then applied to 130 randomly selected clinical isolates. Results: Five characteristic peaks—m/z values 5005, 5285, 5323, 6440, and 6526—were identified. Isolates exhibiting at least 4 of these 5 peaks were classified as S. argenteus; those exhibiting fewer than 4 were classified as S. aureus. The model achieved 100% specificity and 100% sensitivity in both the development and validation phases. In the clinical application phase, the model correctly classified all isolates, whereas conventional MALDI-TOF MS yielded several misidentifications. Conclusions: The identification model, and the simple peak-based rule it is based on, can accurately distinguish S. argenteus from MSSA, offering a practical diagnostic tool for clinical microbiology laboratories.

Abstract: Emerging-market equity exchanges require regime forecasting systems that are continuous in time, robust to heavy-tailed distributions, and optimised against false alarms. No existing method addresses all three simultaneously, and no prior study has reported a crisis false alarm rate on JSE equities. We propose S-NODE-ANF-RRC: a Stochastic Neural ODE embedded within an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Risk-Regime Clustering architecture, motivated by the Heston stochastic volatility framework and integrated by a Milstein scheme with Lyapunov-regularised dual-loss training. The system is evaluated as a one-step-ahead probabilistic forecaster (h = 1 trading day) on 2696 daily observations across 17 JSE securities (March 2015–March 2026). Gaussian mixture clustering on raw features (kurtosis 54.8) inflates ARI by 1.3×; log-transformation corrects this systematic artefact. Two operational profiles emerge after correction: the N-ODE-ANF-RRC achieves the lowest cost (10,350 bp, 65.1% below GMM), longest lead time (0.71 days), and best MCC (0.596); the S-NODE-ANF-RRC achieves the lowest false alarm rate among probabilistic architectures (FAR = 0.051, log-loss = 1.07), with a 42.0% cost reduction versus GMM (bootstrap 95% CI [5, 250, 19, 600] bp; McNemar p = 0.027). Ablation confirms drift, diffusion, and dual-loss as the minimum viable daily-frequency configuration. The interdisciplinary fusion of physics-informed SDE dynamics, time series forecasting, and fuzzy interpretability yields two complementary JSE risk tools: an early-warning forecaster (N-ODE) and a low-false-alarm crisis classifier (S-NODE). Code and data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19787658.

Abstract: In tropical island cities, the combined pressures of rapid high-density urbanization and year-round hot-humid climates make the pedestrian-level wind environment a critical determinant of outdoor thermal comfort and cooling performance. Focusing on Haikou, a tropical island city, this study optimizes building layouts on commercial plots under constant development intensity. A Pedestrian-level Cooling Performance Index (PLCPI) was constructed, prioritizing summer cooling and winter wind control through an AHP-EWM combined weighting method. The index integrates maximum pedestrian-level wind speeds and amplification factors to evaluate 65 layout configurations, including detached, row, perimeter, and courtyard types. The results reveal a nonlinear relationship between building count and cooling performance. Single-building layouts achieve the highest mean PLCPI (2.367), three-building layouts the lowest (1.825), prone to ventilation stagnation, and four-building layouts show a performance rebound (2.271) with stable efficiency. Crucially, spatial enclosure form is the decisive determinant under a constant building count: the optimal two-building layout B-8 (PLCPI=2.456) surpasses the best single-building layout A-2 (2.419), demonstrating that well-designed dispersed layouts can outperform centralized ones. This study proposes a dual-season adaptive evaluation framework for tropical commercial plots and reveals the nonlinear mechanism between building quantity and cooling performance, providing a scientific basis for fine-grained urban design in tropical island climates.

Abstract:

We establish new Lyapunov stability theory for ψ-Caputo fractional-order systems by strengthening Lyapunov functions under reasonable guiding wings of Class-K_∞ functions and their fractional derivative inequalities. The new generalized ψ-Gronwall inequalities and conceptual definitions of stability that are linked with the ψ-Mittag-Leffler function were introduced. Our main results are Lyapunov stability theorems whenever one finds a potential Lyapunov function that has upper and lower bounds and obeys typical Lyapunov fractional differential inequalities along imagined real trajectories of such systems. This theory works with some typical worked-out dynamic models, in which the stability dynamics are discussed.