The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus long-run ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

To improve carbon efficiency for urban logistics service system composed of a third-party logistics service provider (3PLs) and an e-business enterprise, low-carbon operation game between them was studied. Considering low carbon technology investment cost and sales expansion effect of low carbon level, profit functions for both players were constituted. Based on their different bargaining capabilities, totally 5 types of game scenarios were designed. Through analytical solution, Nash Equilibria under varied scenarios were obtained. By analyzing these equilibria, 4 major propositions were given, in which, some key variables and system performance index were compared. Results show that the best system yields could only be achieved under the fully cooperative situation; limited cooperation only for carbon emission reduction would not benefit the system performance improvement; E-business enterprise-leading game’s performance overtook 3PLs-leading ones.

This study examines the relationship between teleworking, gender roles and happiness of couples using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the Understanding Society Survey (USS) during the period 1991-2012. Various approaches are followed, including Probit-adapted fixed effects, multinomial Logit and Instrumental variables (IV). The results support that both men and women who are teleworkers spend more time on housework, while teleworking increases the probability that the household chores examined in this study, such as cooking, cleaning ironing and childcare, will be shared relatively to those who are non-teleworkers. In addition, women are happier when they or their spouse is teleworker, as well as, both men and women are happier when they state that the specific household chores are shared. Thus, women teleworkers may be happier because they can face the family demands and share the household chores with their spouse, increasing their fairness belief about the household division allocation and improving their well-being, expressed by happiness.

There is an increasing concern on the quality of jobs and productivity witnessed in the flexible employment arrangements. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between various employment arrangements and the workplace performance. Home-based working-teleworking, flexible timing and compressed hours are the main employment types examined using the Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS) in years 2004 and 2011. The workplace performance is measured by two outcomes- the financial performance and labour productivity. First, the determinants of those flexible employment types are explored. Second, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method is followed. Third, an instrumental variable (IV) approach is applied to account for plausible endogeneity and to estimate the causal effects. The findings reveal a significant and positive relationship between these types of flexible employment arrangements and the workplace performance. Education, age, wage, quality of relations between managers-employees, years of experience, the area of the market the workplace is operated and the competition are significant factors and are positively associated with the propensity of the flexible employment arrangements implementation. This can have various profound policy implications for employees, employers and the society overall, including family-work balance, coping with family demands, improving the firm performance, reducing traffic congestion and stress among others. It is the first study that explores the relationship between flexible employment types and workplace performance using an IV approach. This allows us to estimate the causal effects of flexible employment types and the possible associated social implications.

Innovation is an essential key factor in the technology development history. Past research on innovation focused more on the innovation behavior of technology, but seldom described knowledge assets which also influence innovation behavior greatly. The effect of knowledge assets attribute and result on disruptive innovation is therefore regarded as the research topic in this study, where disruptive innovation is divided into outbound and inbound to combine combination-embeddednessandmajor business specificityof knowledge assets as the research model. Manufacturing enterprises in China are proceeded the questionnaire survey, and 173 valid copies are collected. The empirical analysis shows that combination-embeddedness of knowledge assets presents significantly positive effects on major business specificity and outbound innovationof an enterprise but reveals remarkably negative effects on inbound innovation. Enterprises are suggested to constantly accumulate knowledge assets with low major business specificity before disruptive innovation in order to reduce ineffective inbound innovation.

Studies employing Arellano-Bond and Blundell-Bond GMM estimation for single linear dynamic panel data models are growing exponentially in number. However, for researchers it is hard to make a reasoned choice between many different possible implementations of these estimators and associated tests. By simulation the effects are examined of many options regarding: (i) reducing, extending or modifying the set of instruments; (ii) specifying the weighting matrix in relation to the type of heteroskedasticity; (iii) using (robustified) 1-step or (corrected) 2-step variance estimators; (iv) employing 1-step or 2-step residuals in Sargan-Hansen overall or incremental overidentification restrictions tests. This is all done for models in which some regressors may be either strictly exogenous, predetermined or endogenous. Surprisingly, particular asymptotically optimal and relatively robust weighting matrices are found to be superior in finite samples to ostensibly more appropriate versions. Most of the variants of tests for overidentification restrictions show serious deficiencies. A recently developed modification of GMM is found to have great potential when the cross-sectional heteroskedasticity is pronounced and the time-series dimension of the sample not too small. Finally all techniques are employed to actual data and lead to some profound insights.

This article uses strategy metaphors consisting of a plan, a home and a game to study the government programme formation in Finland. The strategy approach both contradicts and complements the traditional political science approach to government formation. The government programme formation has been strategic in the sense of separating the formulation and implementation parts of the strategy formation according to the principles of planning ideas. The adopted austerity policy provides a meagre contribution to the expansion of services or the increase in government spending. Consequently, the home metaphor in the government programme appears in the distant future and in combating external threats. The game metaphor is apparent in the goal of making contracts with social partners. The vocabulary change from politics to strategy alters the government programme’s position in terms of catering to the needs of civil servants, citizens and stakeholders. The strategy perspective might be instrumental in shifting from an open democratic debate to a closed and secretive policy formation.

Aluminum is a strategic mineral resource, and China’s aluminum production and consumption is fairly large. However, its supply guarantee is uncertain because of a high dependency on external raw materials. This uncertainty may expand, so finding a way to reduce the uncertainty of aluminum resource supply is especially important. This paper applies the SFA method to analyze the aluminum flows in mainland China from 1996 to 2014, and establishes a supply structure model to measure its supply guarantee degree. The results claim that: (1) China’s aluminum production can satisfy demand and even create a surplus; (2) Domestic self-productive primary and secondary aluminum increased at an annual rate of 12% and 24%; (3) The proportion of self-productive secondary aluminum in the supply structure increased from 7.7% in 1996 to 12.8% in 2014, while that of primary aluminum decreased from 79.6% to 42.8%; (4) The total supply guarantee degree decreased from 87.3% to 55.6% in this period. These results provide a feasible way to solve this plight: the proportion of secondary aluminum in the supply structure should be enhanced, and an efficient aluminum resource recycling system needs to be established as soon as possible to ensure its sustainable supply.

We consider the financial planning problem of a retiree wishing to enter a retirement village at a future uncertain date. The date of entry is determined by the retiree's utility and bequest maximisation problem within the context of uncertain future health states. In addition, the retiree must choose optimal consumption, investment, bequest and purchase of insurance products prior to her full annuitisation on entry to the retirement village. A hyperbolic absolute risk-aversion (HARA) utility function is used to allow necessary consumption for basic living and medical costs. The retirement village will typically require an initial deposit upon entry. This threshold wealth requirement leads to exercising the replication of an American put option at the uncertain stopping time. From our numerical results, active insurance and annuity markets are shown to be a critical aspect in retirement planning.

This study aims to test a model linking destination image, perceived value, tourist satisfaction, and tourist loyalty. Based on a sample of 300 tourists travelling by car from the World Natural Heritage Site of Tianchi, China, a new model of destination image was explored and data were analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). The results show that perceived value and satisfaction are direct antecedents of destination loyalty. Above all, perceived value and tourist satisfaction mediate the relationship between destination image and loyalty. Finally, this study discusses the theoretical and management implications of the findings in order to boost the tourism industry in the context of car trips.

In order to comprehensively evaluate the employee satisfaction of mine occupational health and safety management system, an analytic method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and 2- tuple linguistic model was established. Firstly, based on the establishment of 5 first- grade indicators and 20 second- grade ones, the weight of each indicator is calculated and validated by method of FAHP and root mean square model. Secondly, a path based on the time-ordered Weighted Averaging Operator (T-OWA) model is constructed. Finally, the model is validated by empirical analysis. The results demonstrate that the employee satisfaction of the mine occupational health and safety management system is of the “general” rank. The method including the comprehensive evaluation of employee satisfaction and the quantitative analysis of language evaluation information ensures the authenticity of the language evaluation information.

Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore Government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme while maintaining its simplicity, we propose some plan modifications such that scheme members do not face a dichotomy of plan choices. Instead, they select two age parameters: the Payout Age and the Life-annuity Age. This paper provides an actuarial framework for determining members’ payouts and bequests based on the proposed age parameters. We analyze the net cash receipts and internal rate of return (IRR) for various plan-parameter configurations. This information helps members make their plan choices. To address cost-of-living increases we propose to extend the plan to accommodate an annual step-up of monthly payouts. By deferring the Payout Age from 65 to 68, members can enjoy an annual increase of about 2% of the payouts for the same first-year monthly benefits.

The concept of a Social License to Operate (SLO) has become increasingly important in the sustainability literature in recent years. Having its origins in the business discourse of the mining industry with respect to limiting opposition to mining projects, the notion of a social contract above and beyond legal requirements has since become applied across a number of different industries. Despite the concepts adoption confusion exists over the practices and outcomes of SLO, and particularly the nature of engagement. Given this situation it is surprising that not more attention to the role of marketing, and social marketing in particular, in operationalizing the concept. The paper discusses the potential of social marketing to contribute to SLO. Economic, political and social relations are complex in SLO and exchange is intricate in such relational environments. A community-based social marketing orientation is proposed as a means to improve exchange relations and enhance engagement. Seven models of SLO related social marketing models are discussed with community-based social marketing and adaptive co-marketing models being regarded as the most positive for the achievement of an SLO. Potential barriers to adoption of these approaches are noted.

This study aims to examine Turkish companies from a sustainability and green innovation point of view. Through this purpose, this research’s objective is to find out relationship between sustainability drivers and green innovation and also to search for green organizational culture’s mediation effect in this relationship. Survey was carried in companies operating in Turkey which were listed among İstanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Top 500 companies for last 3 years successively and have ISO14001 Environmental Management Certificate. According to the survey results, it was manifested that factors directing companies to sustainability having a positive relationship with green organizational culture and green innovation. It is found that there is a partial mediation effect of green organizational culture between motivating factors for sustainability and green innovation.

This paper aims to build up a preference function to evaluate the public benefits of the type of agricultural farming, biodiversity, water provisions, land use type, ecotourism modes, and a monetary attribute (environmental trust fund and willingness to contribute) associated with an ecosystem service and land use program in a forest park. This study used the choice experiments to build a random utility model, analyze the average preference for the above land use attributes based on the conditional logit and used a latent class model to test the resident’s heterogeneous preferences for land use planning in the forest park. We also estimated the welfare derived from various land use programs. The empirical result had shown that: (1) increasing organic farming area, maintaining the status quo of species biodiversity, increasing the surface water provision, increasing the area of custom flora, increasing the wetland area, and setting up an integrated framework for ecotourism increase the public’s preference for the land use program; (2) we found that farmer and non-farmer haven’t the same land use preferences; (3) the ecotourism development program incorporating biodiversity, organic farming, ethnobotany, and wetland area with integrated ecotourism are more preferred than other land use program scenarios.

Capital structure decision plays an imperative role in firm’s performance. Recognizing the importance, there has been many studies inspected the rapport of capital structure with performance of firms and findings of those studies are inconclusive. In addition, there is relative deficiency of empirical studies examining the link of capital structure with performance of banks in Bangladesh. This paper attempted to fill this gap. Using panel data of 22 banks for the period of 2005-2014, this study empirically examined the impacts of capital structure on the performance of Bangladeshi banks assessed by return on equity, return on assets and earnings per share. Results from pooled ordinary least square analysis show that there are inverse impacts of capital structure on bank’s performance. Empirical findings of this study is of greater significance for the developing countries like Bangladesh because it will call upon concentration of the bank management and policy makers to pursue such policies to reduce reliance on debt and to accomplish optimal level capital structure. This research also contributes to empirical literatures by reconfirming (or otherwise) findings of previous studies.

By introducing environmental mediator, for avoiding randomness in selecting indicators and subjectivity in deciding interaction path coefficients to reveal interaction mechanism among forest industry, ecology and environmental capacity, structural Pressure–State–Impact–Response (PSIR) and quantitative Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) are utilized with data on thirty–one provinces of China. We can find that: (i) forest industry has a negative influence on ecology, whereas ecology has a positive influence on industry; (ii) the destructive influence that industry has on ecology is much greater than the positive effect ecology has on industry; and (iii) environmental capacity plays a partial mediating role between industry and ecology. According to these results we can conclude that: (i) forest industry and ecology are not in a symbiotic relationship and have not reached a level of ecological security; (ii) the interaction between industry and ecology is in a period of transition from antagonistic to beneficial; and (iii) industry dominates ecology. However, we prospect the following advice: (i) methods of forest industry should be changed; (ii) new modes of industrial integration and circular economy should be developed; and (iii) the ability of the environment to sustain itself should be enhanced. The level of forest ecological security to discuss the symbiotic mechanism of industry and ecology will propose to be measured in future.

This study aims to test a model linking destination image, perceived value, tourist satisfaction, and tourist loyalty. Based on a sample of 300 tourists travelling by car from the World Natural Heritage Site of Tianchi, China, a new model of destination image was explored and data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The results revealed that perceived value and satisfaction are the direct antecedents of destination loyalty. Above all, perceived value and tourist satisfaction mediate the relationship between destination image and tourist loyalty. Finally, this study discusses the theoretical and management implications to boost the tourism industry in the car trip context.

Entropy is a concept derived from Physics that has been used to describe natural and social systems’ structure and behaviour. Applications of the concept in the social sciences so far have been largely limited to the disciplines of economics and sociology. In the current paper the concept of entropy is applied to organizational citizenship behaviour with implications for urban organizational sustainability. A heuristic is presented for analysing personal and organizational citizenship configurations and distributions within a given workforce that can lead to corporate entropy; and for allowing prescriptive remedial steps to be taken to manage the process should entropy from this source threaten its sustainability and survival.

The aims of this study are to measure the technical efficiency (TE) of Cambodian household’s rice production and trying to determine its main influencing factors using the stochastic frontier production function. The study utilized primary data collected from 301 rice farmers in three selected districts of Battambang by structured questionnaires. The empirical results indicated the level of household rice output varied according to differences in the efficiency of production processes. The mean TE is 0.34 which means that famers produce 34% of rice at best practice at the current level of production inputs and technology, indicates that rice output has the potential of being increased further by 66% at the same level of inputs if farmers had been technically efficient. Furthermore, between 2013-2015 TE of household’s rice production recorded -14.3% decline rate due to highly affected of drought during dry season of 2015. Moreover, evidence reveals that land, fertilizer, and pesticide are the major influencing input factors of household’s rice production, while disaster, education of household head, family size and other crops’ cultivated area are core influencing factors decreasing TE. Conversely, the main influencing factors increasing TE are irrigated area, number of plot area and sex of household head.

Food is one of the basic necessities for all living things in this globe to grow, maintain life and develop. It is a source of energy for almost all bodily functions and it directly affects our health status and how we feel each day and the future. Yet, there are millions of people around the globe who do not have the sumptuousness to provide enough food to themselves and their beloved ones. Ethiopia is one of the highly food insecure countries in the world, it's name has been illustrious for famine and drought for decades. The study's main aim is to assess the livelihood resources and strategies of the smallholding farmers in their strive to achieve food security at household level. For this particular study, from Tigray region, Kilte Awelalo was taken as a study area and three Tabias were selected; Ayenalem, Genfel and Tahetay Adikesanded. The total sample number of households from these three Tabias was 370 and a formal interview schedule was employed to collect relevant primary inputs for the study. The study found that farmland holding size and its fertility as major impacting factors behind the livelihood strategies and food security condition of the smallholding farmers. It was also found that about one third of the total sample population were chronically food insecure, whereas about half of the population were transitory food insecure and rest very little number of households were food secure.

The aims of this study are to measure the technical efficiency (TE) of Cambodian household’s rice production and trying to determine its main influencing factors using the stochastic frontier production function. The study utilized primary data collected from 301 rice farmers in three selected districts of Battambang by structured questionnaires. The empirical results indicated the level of household rice output varied according to differences in the efficiency of the production processes. The mean TE is 0.34 which means that famers produce 34% of rice at best practice at the current level of production inputs and technology, indicates that rice output has the potential of being increased further by 66% at the same level of inputs if farmers had been technically efficient. Furthermore, between 2013-2015, TE of household’s rice production recorded -14.3% decline rate due to highly affected of drought during dry season of 2015. Moreover, evidence reveals that land, fertilizer, and pesticide are the major influencing input factors of household’s rice production, while disaster, education of household head, family size and other crops’ cultivated area are core influencing factors decreasing TE. Conversely, the main influencing factors increasing TE are irrigated area, number of plot area and sex of household head.

By reinterpreting the calibration of structural models, a reassessment of the importance of the input variables is undertaken. The analysis shows that volatility is the key parameter to any calibration exercise by several orders of magnitude. In order to maximize the sensitivity to volatility, a simple formulation of Merton’s model is proposed that employs deep out-of-the-money option implied volatilities. The methodology also eliminates the use of historic data to specify the default barrier thereby leading to a full risk neutral calibration. Subsequently, a new technique for identifying and hedging capital structure arbitrage opportunities is illustrated. The approach seeks to hedge the volatility risk, or vega, as opposed to the exposure from the underlying equity itself, or delta. The results question the efficacy of the common arbitrage strategy of only executing the delta hedge.

In this study the impact of terrorist attacks on exchange rate is estimated. Particularly, the study focuses on Turkish terrorist attacks and its implication on Turkish lira versus pound sterling exchange rate. In order, to find the causal effect the study employed Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing approach as an estimation technique. Accordingly, the analysis reveals that terrorist attack has a negative impact on the exchange rate in both short and long-run. However, the negative effect of terrorism tends to be small in both the short-run and long-run. More precisely, terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate between Turkish lira and pound sterling by approximately 0.00072 in the next trading day. The long-term effect also shows that terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate on average by 0.00212.

There are many uncertainties and risks in residential electricity consumption during the economic development. Knowledge of the relationship between residential electricity consumption and its key determinant—income—are important to the sustainable development of electric power industry. Using panel data from 30 provinces for the 1995-2012 period, this study investigates how residential electricity consumption changes as incomes increase in China. Previous studies typically used linear or quadratic double-logarithmic models imposing ex ante restrictions on the indistinct relationship between residential electricity consumption and income. Contrary to those models, we employed a reduced piecewise linear model that is self-adaptive and highly flexible and circumvents the problem of “prior restrictions.” Robust tests of different segment specifications and regression methods are performed to ensure the conservatism of the research. The results provide strong evidence that the income elasticity was approximately one, and it remained stable throughout the estimation period. The income threshold at which residential electricity consumption automatically remains stable or slows has not been reached. To ensure the sustainable development of the electric power industry, introducing higher energy efficiency standards for electrical appliances and improving income levels are vital. And government should emphasize electricity conservation in industrial sector rather than in residential sector.

We introduce the notions of monotony, subadditivity, and homogeneity for functions defined on a convex cone, call functions with these properties diversification functions and obtain the respective properties for the risk aggregation given by such a function. Examples of diversification functions are given by seminorms, which are monotone on the convex cone of non-negative vectors. Any L^p norm has this property, and any scalar product given by a non-negative positive semidefinite matrix as well. In particular, the Standard Formula is a diversification function, hence a risk measure that preserves homogeneity, subadditivity, and convexity.

The authors argue that despite significant numbers of foreign workers present in the Russian labor market Russia remains unattractive for highly skilled foreign workers. The economic crisis the country has faced since 2014 has resulted in a further outflow of foreign nationals from OECD countries. So Russia has to look for employees among newcomers from the former Soviet states, the majority of whom come from Central Asia. Russian politics with regard to immigration is characterized by the collision between “geopolitical” and domestic policy rationales. On one hand, seeking to maximize its influence in the post-Soviet space Russia provides preferential conditions of employment for citizens of partner countries in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. On the other hand, the Kremlin is afraid to liberalize its approach to immigration and the integration of immigrants through fear of losing popularity among the electorate. The second substantial feature of Russian immigration politics is an extreme level of securitization of migration issues. The government considers these issues primarily through a policing lens. One cannot claim that the Russian state does not take any steps to liberalize “migratory regulation”; however, the effect of these measures is being vastly reduced by new restrictions. In addition, liberally designed laws do not bring the expected results due to the corrupt practices that pervade the whole of migration regulation.

The present study aims to measure the technical efficiency and establish core factors effecting rice production in Cambodia. Four-years dataset generated from the central government document “Profile on Economics and Social” of entire 25 provinces between 2012-2015 and the stochastic production frontier model (SFA) was applied. The results indicated that the level of output (quantity) of Cambodian rice production varied according to the different level of capital investment in agricultural machineries, total rice actual harvested area, and technically fertilizers application within provinces. Furthermore, evidence revealed the overall mean efficiency of rice production is 78.4% implies that there is still room to further improve technical efficiency by given the same level of inputs and technology. More importantly, the findings revealed that irrigation, production technique and amount of agricultural supporting staffs are being as the most important influencing factors of rice production’s technical efficiency in Cambodia. In conclusion, present study strongly recommends the development of irrigation systems and good water management practices to be considered and bring into more effective actions by the central government as well as related agencies for improving rice production in Cambodia in addition to capital investment and improving technical skills of supporting staffs and rural farmers.

With the advances in industry and commerce, passengers have become more accepting of environmental sustainability issues; thus, more people now choose to travel by bus. Government administration constitutes an important part of bus transportation services as the government gives the right-of-way to transportation companies allowing them to provide services. When these services are of poor quality, passengers may lodge complaints. The increase in consumer awareness and developments in wireless communication technologies have made it possible for passengers to easily and immediately submit complaints about transportation companies to government institutions, which has brought drastic changes to the supply-demand chain comprised of the public sector, transportation companies, and passengers. This study proposed the use of big data analysis technology including systematized case assignment and data visualization to improve management processes in the public sector and optimize customer complaint services. Taichung City, Taiwan was selected as the research area. There, the customer complaint management process in public sector was improved, effectively solving such issues as station-skipping, allowing the public sector to fully grasp the service level of transportation companies, improving the sustainability of bus operations, and supporting the sustainable development of the public sector-transportation company-passenger supply chain.

Achieving high economic growth rate while maintaining low inflation rate, has become the main objective of monetary authorities all over the world. Indeed, empirical literature reflects that high inflation rates are detrimental to long run growth and entail welfare costs. To achieve this objective, central banks have availed different options from time to time which include inflation targeting. Monetary authorities in Tanzania have been targeting an inflation level of around 5 percent per annum for economic policy purposes. However, when high inflation is to be controlled, tight monetary policy is put in place which might in turn affect the economic activity. Also, the Tobin effect suggests that inflation causes individuals to substitute out of money and into interest earning assets, which leads to greater capital intensity which in turn promotes economic growth. Against these major points, this paper examines a non linear relationship between inflation and economic growth using both a quadratic and threshold endogenous models and attempts to identify the existence of threshold effects between these variables. The paper uses a data set spanning from 1967 to 2015. The most interesting finding of the estimations is that the estimated coefficient of the linear term of inflation is negative while the estimated coefficient of the square term of inflation is positive, suggesting a U-shaped effect as opposed to inverse or inverted U-shaped relationship found in other countries by previous studies. These results suggest that the Tobin effect may be valid for high inflation, in which people strongly realize the importance of substituting money for interest-bearing assets. This leads to an increase in capital investment, and in turn, an increase in economic growth even with high inflation rate. However, this U-shaped relationship between inflation and economic growth suggests that, the economy is better off at extremely low inflation episodes. The optimal inflation rate that ranges between 3.25 percent and 3.75 percent is obtained by minimizing the residual sum of squares and/or maximizing adjusted R-squared. These findings have some policy implications for the policymakers and development partners. The paper is consistent with policy suggestions by international agencies. Efforts to minimize inflation to a very low level are likely to have a positive effect on economic growth.

This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model is used to estimate the ieffect of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012) [1], and Le and Suruga (2005) [2]are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on domestic private investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. In the same way, the crowding out effect of foreign direct investment on domestic private investment is estimated. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Broadly, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment and foreign direct investment play an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. Besides, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth becomes smaller when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Similarly, foreign direct investment tends to marginally reduce the impact of domestic private investment on growth. These results suggest that public investment and foreign direct investment need to be considered carefully in order to avoid a reduced positive impact of domestic private investment on growth. Domestic saving may be promoted to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

Achieving high economic growth rate while maintaining low inflation rate, has become the main objective of monetary authorities all over the world. Indeed, empirical literature reflects that high inflation rates are detrimental to long run growth and entail welfare costs. To achieve this objective, central banks have availed different options from time to time which include inflation targeting. Monetary authorities in Tanzania have been targeting an inflation level of around 5 percent per annum for economic policy purposes. However, when high inflation is to be controlled, tight monetary policy is put in place which might in turn affect the economic activity. Also, the Tobin effect suggests that inflation causes individuals to substitute out of money and into interest earning assets, which leads to greater capital intensity which in turn promotes economic growth. Against these major points, this paper examines a non linear relationship between inflation and economic growth using both a quadratic and threshold endogenous models and attempts to identify the existence of threshold effects between these variables. The paper uses a data set spanning from 1967 to 2015. The most interesting finding of the estimations is that the estimated coefficient of the linear term of inflation is negative while the estimated coefficient of the square term of inflation is positive, suggesting a U-shaped effect as opposed to inverse or inverted U-shaped relationship found in other countries by previous studies. These results suggest that the Tobin effect may be valid for high inflation, in which people strongly realize the importance of substituting money for interest-bearing assets. This leads to an increase in capital investment, and in turn, an increase in economic growth even with high inflation rate. However, this U-shaped relationship between inflation and economic growth suggests that, the economy is better off at extremely low inflation episodes. The optimal inflation rate that ranges between 3.25 percent and 3.75 percent is obtained by minimizing the residual sum of squares and/or maximizing adjusted R-squared. These findings have some policy implications for the policymakers and development partners. The paper is consistent with policy suggestions by international agencies. Efforts to minimize inflation to a very low level are likely to have a positive effect on economic growth.

The pollution of the bays in Abidjan is a major concern for the Ivorian policy makers. In fact, the pollution of the bays induce high costs to the society while impacting population health dramatically. As a result, pollution reduction management of production activities has been undertaken in the Cocody Bay area. To our knowledge, no study has yet proposed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these pollution management strategies. A cost-effectiveness model, based on Monte Carlo simulation, was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios characterized by a set of production practices, both in the short term and in the long term. The authors discuss the steps and input parameters of the model presented. The proposed model may serve as the basis for identifying an optimal production scenario defined as the scenario with the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio considering a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. The WTP, to be estimated based on the gross domestic product of Côte d’Ivoire, represents the opportunity costs associated with selecting the optimal scenario. The current framework can also be applied to other settings facing similar challenge.

This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH). Our results, obtained employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far it is found a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the one of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

Logistics plays an important role in globalized companies and contributes to the development of foreign trade. A large number of external conditions, such as recession and inflation, affect logistics. Therefore, managers should find ways to improve operational performance, enabling them to increase efficiency while considering environmental sustainability due to the industry’s large scale of energy consumption. Based on data collected from the financial reports of top global logistics companies, this study uses a DEA model to calculate corporate efficiency by implementing a Grey forecasting approach to forecast future sustainability values. Consequently, the study addresses the problem of how to enhance operational performance while accounting for the impact of external conditions. This research can help logistics companies develop operation strategies in the future that will enhance their competitiveness vis-à-vis rivals in a time of global economic volatility.

To better understand farmers’ refusal and corresponding negative emotions to pay agricultural water fee under current policy in rural China, this paper applies mental accounting, a behavioral economics framework, to explore how the governmental policies of reform of rural taxes and fees, direct agricultural subsidy programs and agricultural water fee individually influence farmers’ decisions in paying agricultural water fee. Using fieldwork data from 577 farmers and 20 water managers in Sichuan, we explore farmers’ information processing regarding paying agricultural water fee via three sequential mental accounting processes, with the associated underlying principles and measures behind each process. We find that the information processing in three mental accounting scenarios related to the agricultural water fee elucidates farmers’ observed behaviors in rural China. Generally, in the three mental accounting scenarios, two conditional intuitive expectations and nine conditional intuitive preferences are formed, however, the conditions of those expectations or preferences cannot be matched with the facts due to the reform of rural taxes and fees, the direct agricultural subsidy programs and the internal attributes of agricultural water fee, which interpret those negative behaviors in rural China. Additionally, this paper offers a view into how previous policies create negative psychological externalities (such as farmers’ psychological dependence on the government) through mental accounting to negatively influence agents’ subsequent decision making; it highlights the significance of underlying mental factors and information processing of negative behaviors in policymaking for managing or conserving common pool resources.

The question of the relevance of human and natural capital, as well as the potential adverse effect of natural capital on economic growth, has gained increased attention in development economics. The aim of this paper is to theoretically and empirically assess the relevance of several forms of capital on economic growth in small economies that are dependent upon tourism or natural resources. The empirical framework is based on Impulse Response Functions obtained from Vector Autoregressive models in which we focus on the model where economic growth is the dependent variable for ten small economies that are dependent upon either tourism or natural resources. We find that there is evidence of the ‘’natural resource curse’’, especially in the economies that have a strong dependence on resources that are easily substitutable and whose prices constantly fluctuate. We further find that in the majority of observed cases the type of capital these small economies are most dependent on for their economic growth causes negative impulses in the majority of the observed periods. The main policy recommendation should be to assure that even these small economies should strive towards further diversification and avoid dependence on only one segment of their economy.

There has been a growing awareness of the need to implement environmentally friendly operations in the hotel industry, but most studies focus on guest behaviors. Only a few studies investigate employees’ willingness to comply with hotels’ green practices. This study seeks to further the investigation from the human resource perspective. Using alumni from a tourism and hospitality programs, this study collected 233 responses. The study hypothesizes that the employees’ green ability consisting of environmental awareness, environmental knowledge, and environmental skill creates a positive impact on hotels’ green ability. The results indicate that employees contribute approximately a fifth of hotels’ ability to implement greener practices.

This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model that includes control variables such as trade liberalization, life expectancy and macroeconomic stability proxied by inflation is used to estimate the impact of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012), and Le and Suruga (2005) are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on private domestic investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Generally, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment plays an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. FDI also tends to affect growth positively, while control variables such as high population growth and inflation appear to harm economic growth. Results also reveal that control variables such as trade openness and life expectancy improvement tend to increase real GDP growth. Moreover, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth reduces when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Thus, there is a great need for promoting domestic saving so as to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence to water policy-makers and the evaluation of the application of economic instruments such as price and other factors affecting demand, they contribute to improved decision-making around water management in the Biosphere Reserve El Vizcaino, Mexico. It was estimated a dynamic function with average price specification and other price perception specification. The findings show that consumers react to average price perceived and not the marginal price; long-run price elasticity is higher than short-run and both elasticities are inelastic. Elasticities inelastic with rising prices generate high incomes to improve water planning, supply quality and expand service coverage. The results suggest that the level of knowledge of users on the price is key to take into account restructuring rates in a scenario where the consumer has asymmetric information and themselves achieve goals of economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability.

The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence to water policy-makers and the evaluation of the application of economic instruments such as price and other factors affecting demand, they contribute to improved decision-making around water management in the Biosphere Reserve El Vizcaino, Mexico. It was estimated a dynamic function with average price specification and other price perception specification. The findings show that consumers react to average price perceived and not the marginal price; long-run price elasticity is higher than short-run and both elasticities are inelastic. Elasticities inelastic with rising prices generate high incomes to improve water planning, supply quality and expand service coverage. The results suggest that the level of knowledge of users on the price is key to take into account restructuring rates in a scenario where the consumer has asymmetric information and themselves achieve goals of economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability.

In 2013, the CMA at the İstanbul Stock Exchange increased the weight assigned to the Board of Directors component of its Corporate Governance Index to 35% from the previous 25%. Interpreting this as a recognition of the increasing vital role of the board, this study seeks to enhance the work of Abdıoğlu and Kılıç (2015) by putting more focus on the role of women in the boards and the effect of the busy chairman as well as the presence of outside directors on the effectivity of the Board. (The general business structure is associated with family owned groups and holdings which results into a network of intertwined board membership and cases of multiple directorship where, one board chairman can hold the same position or any directorship in as many as ten firmshence the busy chairman). I employ a different method of evaluating performance (EVA) together with the accounting measures of ROE and ROA (as opposed to the overused Tobin’s Q), which I regress against the Board Index to be created. The focus is on firms on the BIST 100 index (excluding financial) between 2009 and 2013. The results reveal that the BINDEX has a significant and positive relationship with firm performance as measured by EVA. A second model reveals no relationship between the BINDEX and firm ROA, similar to the results of Kiliç and Abdioğlu (2015). ROA however has a positive relationship with the proportion of female directors in the board, as earlier reported by LückerathRovers (2013). Another model using ROE as the proxy for performance registers a significant negative relationship with the index. The contradiction obtained in the results from these three models underscore the importance choosing the right methods when estimating the performance of a firm.

Sustainable food consumption has attracted a widespread attention during last decades by scholars, policy makers and consumers. In line with this, farmers’ markets (FMs) have the potential to encourage sustainable agricultural production and consumption. By reducing the number of actors and distances along the food chain, these alternative food systems foster the reconnection between farmers and consumers and contribute to different social, economic and environmental sustainable goals. This paper provides insights on the role of consumers' sustainability concerns related to their motivation for shopping at FMs. By means of a choice experiment, we analyze the determinants of consumers’ WTP for buying apples at FMs. We are particularly interested in understanding how attitudes towards the three sustainability dimensions are related to consumer preferences in this context. We find that consumer attitudes towards direct contact with producers, contributing to farmers’ income, and environmental benefits can be directly related to product characteristics that are specific to FMs.

To better understand farmers’ refusal, as well as their corresponding negative emotions, to pay agricultural water fee under current policy in rural China, this paper applies mental accounting, a behavioral economics framework, to explore how the reform of rural taxes and fees, direct agricultural subsidy programs and agricultural water fee influence farmers’ decisions in paying agricultural water fee. Using fieldwork data from 577 farmers and 20 water managers in Sichuan, we explore farmers’ information processing regarding the payment decisions of agricultural water fee via three sequential mental accounting processes, with the associated underlying principles and measures behind each process. We find that the information processing in three mental accounting scenarios related to the agricultural water fee elucidates farmers’ observed behaviors in rural China. Generally, in the three mental accounting scenarios, two conditional intuitive expectations and nine other conditional intuitive preferences are formed; however, these conditions cannot be matched with the facts due to the reform of rural taxes and fees, the direct agricultural subsidy programs and the internal attributes of agricultural water fee. Additionally, this paper offers a view into how previous policies create negative psychological externalities (such as farmers’ psychological dependence on the government) through mental accounting that negatively influences agents’ subsequent decision making; it highlights the significance of underlying mental factors and information processing of negative behaviors in policymaking for managing or conserving common pool resources.

The present study aims to measure the technical efficiency and establish core factors effecting rice production in Cambodia. Four-years dataset generated from the central government document “Profile on Economics and Social” of entire 25 provinces between 2012-2015 and the stochastic production frontier model (SFA) was applied. The results indicated that the technical efficiency of Cambodian rice production varied according to the different level of capital investment in agricultural machineries, total rice actual harvested area, and technically fertilizers application within provinces. Furthermore, evidence revealed the overall mean efficiency of rice production is 78.4% implies that there is still room to further improve technical efficiency by given the same level of inputs and technology. More importantly, the findings revealed that irrigation, production technique and amount of agricultural supporting staffs are being as the most important influencing factors of rice production in Cambodia. In conclusion, present study strongly recommends the development of irrigation systems and good water management practices to be considered and bring into more effective actions by the central government as well as related agencies for improving rice production in Cambodia in addition to capital investment and improving technical skills of supporting staffs and rural farmers.

This paper studies the duration patterns of unemployment spells for immigrants and the determinants of unemployment’s completion into one of a number of studied labour market states in Finland. We estimate a duration model for unemployment with competing risks of its terminating into employment, labour market training or economic inactivity. Taking into account the wide period of observation and opportunities to analyse processes of labour market integration during various periods of economic development in Finland, in combination with the individualistic character of the labour careers of immigrants, this research is beneficial owing to the many various findings concerning labour market integration of immigrants. The approach undertaken in this research has a dualistic “descriptive-dynamic” character under which integration is understood as a never-ending process, which is conditioned by a time period of long-term existence and a context of solitary action. We find that transitions out of unemployment spells have a cyclical character; after every new “cycle” in unemployment, the probability of terminating unemployment decreases further. We also find that ascriptive factors make sense in the process of job-placement of immigrants from unemployment. Therefore, the gender, education and age of immigrants, as well as the effect of the period in which first unemployment occurred, potentially predict transitions out of unemployment and further labour market integration of immigrants.

This paper uses panel data to find the determinants of tracking errors in exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the Hong Kong stock market. A comparison of tracking errors between physical and synthetic ETFs also indicates that the synthetic ETFs have higher tracking errors. The magnitude of tracking errors is found to be negatively related to size but positively related to dividend yield, trading volumes of funds, and market risk. However, this study also finds that expense ratio has a negative impact on tracking error, which is not consistent with previous studies, and which this paper addresses.

An abundance of natural resources is both an opportunity and a challenge for developing countries. Several resource-rich, low-income countries receive amounts of foreign aid that are similar to or larger than their actual or potential revenues from natural resources. In such countries, the donors may have an opportunity to help a government to use its resource revenues productively and minimize the magnitude of risks created by resource rents. Development of aid instruments tailored for such purposes might be helped by model-based analysis of the effects of foreign aid on resource-rich, low-income economies and its interactions with the flows of natural resource revenues. This paper develops a growth model à la Barro in which the government receives windfalls (from natural resources and foreign aid) and rent-seeking agents contest for public funds. The key conclusion is that making aid countercyclical helps to achieve higher economic growth, and so does conditioning disbursements on enhancement of public capital. Introducing elements of insurance in the design of both aid products financing investments in infrastructure and social services and supporting policy and institutional reforms may help to achieve both of these objectives.

The way people innovate and create new ideas and bring them to the market is undergoing a fundamental change from closed innovation to open innovation. Why and how do firms perform open innovation? Firms’ open innovation is measured through the levels of firms’ joint patent applications. Next, we analyze network structures and characters of firms’ joint patent applications such as betweenness and degree centrality, structure hole, and closure. From this research, we drew conclusions as follows. First, the structure of collaboration networks has both direct and indirect effects on firms’ innovative performance. Second, in the process of joint patent applications, there is a long tail phenomenon in networks of joint patent applications. Third, the number of patents and International Patent Classification (IPC) subclasses together constitute a meaningful measure of the innovation performance of firms.

The way people innovate and create new ideas and bring them to the market is undergoing a fundamental change from closed innovation to open innovation. Why and how do firms perform open innovation? Firms’ open innovation is measured through the levels of firms’ joint patent applications. Next, we analyze network structures and characters of firms’ joint patent applications such as betweenness and degree centrality, structure hole, and closure. From this research, we drew four conclusions. First, the structure of collaboration networks has both direct and indirect effects on firms’ innovative performance. Second, in the process of joint patent applications, there is a long tail phenomenon in networks of joint patent applications. Third, the number of patents and IPC subclasses together constitute a meaningful measure of the innovation performance of firms.

ABSTRACT This study focused for socio-economic benefit of Western shoreline of Lake Ziway ecosystem. The data collected from two woredas they are Adami Tulu Jidu Kombolch (ATJK) and Dugda woreda of fishermen and small scale irrigation users. Lake Ziway great importance food and water for both groups of respondents and additionally sources of raw material, energy, cultivation, organic fertilizers, genetic and medicinal plants. Lake Ziway also has a major economic benefit for both groups of respondents. The sampled fishermen cached mean amount of 2,524Kg per year with minimum and maximum amount of fish 504Kg and 16,800Kg per year respectively and with this fish catching they got average income of 51,398 Birr ($2,570) per year with range of 7,200 Birr ($360) and 288,000 Birr ($14,400) per year. As like of fishermen small scale irrigation also got economic benefit with their production of cereal crops, fruits and vegetables. They produce in average 13.47Quintal of cereal crop and 69.56Quintal of fruits and vegetables per year and they got average income of 7,727 Birr ($386) and with range of 13,714 Birr ($686) per year respectively. this incurred that wetland ecosystem has a lot of socio-economic benefit for the people live near by specially for developing countries like Ethiopia they are more dependent on natural ecosystem like of Lake Ziway. Because of its high importance, we have to protect and conserve and use sustainably of Lake Ziway and similar wetland ecosystems. Key Words: Wetland ecosystem service; Lake Ziway; Socioeconomic benefit; Fishermen; Small scale irrigation users

The paper examines the impact of inward remittances flows on per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh during 1976-2012. We find that the growth effect of remittances is negative at first but becomes positive at a later stage, an evidence of a non-linear. Unproductive use of remittances was rampant in the beginning when they were received by migrant families but better social and economic investments led to more productive utilisation of remittances receipts at later periods. This was the possible mechanism behind the U-shaped relationship. Unlike what is suggested in the literature that the effect of remittances is more pronounced in a less financially developed economy, our evidence do not show that the effect of remittances on per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh is conditional on the level of financial development.

In this paper, we focus on the impact of financial liberalization on stability of emerging stock market. We identify crises in a group of Latin American (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) and Asian countries (Philippines, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand) during 1975–2005. This paper aims to apply the methodology of CMAX method. Our results indicate that liberalization triggers more unstable stock market in the short run and generate several crises. Still, liberalization seems to generate more stable financial markets in the long run. Financial liberalization does not increase the frequency of crises in emerging countries and at long-term, crises are less several.

The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.

The Solvency II regulatory framework specifies procedures and parameters for determining solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for insurance companies. The proposed standard SCR calculations involve two steps. The Value–at–Risk (VaR) of each risk driver is measured and, in a second step, all components are aggregated to the company’s overall SCR, using the Standard Formula. This formula has two inputs: the VaRs of the individual risk drivers and their correlations. The appropriate calibration of these input parameters has been the purpose of various Quantitative Impact Studies that have been conducted during recent years. This paper demonstrates that the parameter calibration for the equity–risk module—overall, with about 25%, the most significant risk component—is seriously flawed, giving rise to spurious and highly erratic parameter values. As a consequence, an implementation of the Standard Formula with the currently proposed calibration settings for equity–risk is likely to produce inaccurate, biased and, over time, highly erratic capital requirements.

The present study aims at investigating the relationship between Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) variables mainly underpricing on one hand, and the brand value measures on the other. Our final data set is 104 international brand companies. We implement empirical approach using hierarchical OLS regression and descriptive statistics. We show that underpricing is positively related to brand value which emphasizes the marketing role of going public and underpricing in enhancing brand equity through the product market, which additionally confirms some information asymmetry models. We also find that on average brand companies had not been recognized as brands at the IPO time. Moreover, we show the positive role of private equity in enhancing brand value, additionally, the non-linear association between underpricing and brand value is not evident. Finally, we draw some policy implication and suggestions for future research.

There are many modern and traditional methods in valuing the performance of the company among them EVA, CVA are modern methods where as EPS, ROI, ROE etc. are some of the traditional methods. modern and traditional methods are not only used to check the performance of a company but it also used in investment decisions by the investors. Stern Stewart, managing partner of M/s Stern Stewart & Co. introduced a modified concept of economic profit in 1990 in the name of Economic Value Added (EVA) as measure of business performance and CVA is only a cash consideration in EVA. In this paper an attempt is made to study which method is used by the investors while taking the investment decisions i.e. traditional methods are modern methods. 100 respondents (Investors) are questioned and collected their views, we are assuming that there is no impact of traditional or modern methods while taking investment decisions by the investors.

This study was aimed to investigate the effect of capital structure on firms’ profitability with special emphasis on Ethiopian Large Private Manufacturing Firms using panel data of five consecutive years (2006/07-2010/11G.C). The secondary data sources (audited financial statements) have been collected from the randomly selected thirty three large private manufacturing firms in Ethiopia. Linear regression model has been employed to analyze the relationship between firms’ profitability and capital structure. Specifically, Random-effect Generalized Least Square of panel data regression model has been selected to empirically test the literature driven hypotheses. Finally, the findings of this study revealed that a significant positive relationship between firms’ profitability and total debt ratio which indicate firm’s capital structure.

The stock beta coefficient literature extensively discusses the proper methods for the estimation of beta as well as its use in asset valuation. However, there are relatively few references with respect to the appropriate time horizon that investors should utilize when evaluating the risk-return relationship of a stock. We examine the appropriate time horizon for beta estimation differentiating our results by sector according to the Industry Classification Benchmark. We employ data from the NYSE and we estimate varying lengths of beta employing data from 30 to 250 trading days. The constructed beta series is then examined for the presence of breaks using the endogenous structural break literature. Results show evidence against the use of betas that employ more than 90 trading days of data provisional to the sector under study.

This study explores the relationship between job satisfaction, employee loyalty and two types of flexible employment arrangements; teleworking and flexi-time. The analysis relies on data derived by the Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS) in 2004 and 2011. A propensity score matching and least squares regressions are applied. Furthermore, Bayesian Networks (BN) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are employed in order to confirm the causality between employment types explored and the outcomes of interest. Finally, an instrumental variables (IV) approach based on the BN framework is proposed and applied in this study. The results support that there is a positive causal effect from these employment arrangements on job satisfaction and employee loyalty.

Using recent developments in econometrics and computational statistics we consider the estimation of the instantaneous rate of asset return process when the underlying Data Generating Mechanism (DGM) is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, driven by fractional noise, and sampled at fixed intervals of length h. To address the problem we adopt throughout the paper an exact discretization approach. This enable us to exploit the fact that a flow sampling scheme arises naturally when observing the DGM. For, while the instantaneous rate of return process is unobservable at points in time, its time integral over successive observations is observable since it equals the increment of log-prices. Exact discretization delivers an ARIMA(1,1,1) model for log-prices with a fractional driving noise. Building on the resulting exact discretization formulae and covariance function, a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme is proposed and we examine the properties of both the time and frequency domain likelihoods / posteriors through Monte Carlo. For the exact discrete model we adopt a general sampling interval of length h. This allow us to determine the optimal choice of h independent of the sample size. An empirical application using high frequency stock price data is presented showing the relevance of aggregation over time issues in modelling asset prices.

Electricity price forecasting has become a crucial element for both private and public decision-making. This importance has been growing since the wave of deregulation and liberalization of energy sector worldwide late 1990s. Given these facts, this paper tries to come up with a precise and flexible forecasting model for the wholesale electricity price for the Italian power market on an hourly basis. We utilize artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and bagged regression trees that are rarely used to forecast electricity prices. After model calibration, our final model is bagged regression trees with exogenous variables. The selected model outperformed neural network and bagged regression with single price used in this paper, it also outperformed other statistical and non-statistical models used in other studies. We also confirm some theoretical specifications of the model. As a policy implication, this model might be used by energy traders, transmission system operators and energy regulators for an enhanced decision-making process.