Abstract
Reducing the levels of toxic chemicals that cause adverse health and environmental impacts is a challenge for the international community. There is a need of a global strategy. Indeed, too often the problems associated to the exposure of chemical substances is recognized a posteriori, in the presence of consequences already observed. The prediction of the likely effects of chemical exposure on human health is based on classical tests with animals, which are time and money consuming, may deviate from an accurate prediction towards humans, and arises ethical concerns. Regulations are now considering the adoption of in silico (or computational) methods, which can be used for prioritizing substances according to the probability to be toxic for the biosphere. Several initiatives have prioritized chemicals, typically based according to some criteria, such as chemicals which may be endocrine disruptors, or persistent, bioaccumulative, or toxic (PBT). However, these initiatives focused on a certain range of adverse properties, and covered a certain number of substances only. We applied a set of largely validated and widely used predictive methods to large collections of chemicals: (i) to about 340,000 with a defined function, and (ii) to about 6 millions, which have been synthetized. The aim of this study is to quantify the putative impact of existing and future chemicals on towards human health, ecological and environment properties. The impact on the environment is the cause of major concern. This is the case of pesticides and hazardous, which is quite expected; however, also pharmacologically active candidate compounds of natural origin may have a high level of ecotoxicity. Pesticides and hazardous are also the categories of higher concern for humans, followed by pharmaceuticals. The pesticides and the hazardous are the categories of higher concern also on the environmental point of view. The results of our analysis could be the basis for the identification of new safety rules.