Preprint
Article

Backtesting the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates

Altmetrics

Downloads

2582

Views

1737

Comments

0

A peer-reviewed article of this preprint also exists.

This version is not peer-reviewed

Submitted:

05 May 2017

Posted:

08 May 2017

You are already at the latest version

Alerts
Abstract
The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.
Keywords: 
Subject: Business, Economics and Management  -   Econometrics and Statistics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2024 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated