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The R^2 and the Seven Events in Hong Kong: A New Look at Return Synchronicity and Price Efficiency

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Submitted:

24 September 2018

Posted:

25 September 2018

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Abstract
This paper identifies a dilemma in the relationship between R^2 and price efficiency: After comprehensively studying the R^2 change around 7 well-known corporate events, neither the traditional understanding of R^2 as price inefficiency, nor the behavioral way of R^2 as price efficiency can explain the observed R^2 change around the events. We adopt an alternative methodology to replace the standard difference-in-difference regression and directly decompose the R^2 change. We find that, due to the endogeneity of events, the changes of R^2 are over-estimated. We further propose that in the event study setting, the R^2 change may be simply the consequence of the inflow/outflow of some trend-chasing investors, and it may be detached from price (in) efficiency. Empirical evidences are consistent with this hypothesis.
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Subject: Business, Economics and Management  -   Finance
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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