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ARIMA-M: A New Model for Daily Water Consumption Prediction, Based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model and the Markov Chain Error Correction

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Submitted:

09 January 2020

Posted:

10 January 2020

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Abstract
Water resource is considered as a significant factor in development of regional environment and society. Water consumption prediction can provide important decision basis for the regional water supply scheduling optimisations. According to the periodicity and randomness nature of the daily water consumption data, a Markov modified autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed in this study. The proposed model, combined with the Markov chain, can correct the prediction error, reduce the continuous superposition of prediction error, and improve the prediction accuracy of future daily water consumption data. The daily water consumption data of different monitoring points are used to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the future water consumption is predicted, in the study area. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the prediction error compared to the ARIMA.
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Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

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