Forecasting Unusual Trend of COVID-19 Progression in Pakistan

The observed data of COVID-19 progression in Pakistan for first 50 days from the first patient been reported has shown quite an unusual trend which is in opposition to clear exponential spread pattern of any infectious disease. The data of positive cases of 50 days of disease progression has been collected from COVID-19 dashboard of Pakistan and analyzed to see the graphical trend and to forecast the behaviour of disease progression for next 30 days. Mathematical equations regarding exponential growth are used to analyse the disease progression and different possible trajectories are plotted to understand the approximate trend pattern. The possible projections estimated 20k-456k positive cases within 80 days of disease spread in Pakistan. Although, the disease progression pattern is not perfectly exponential, it is still threatening a major fraction of susceptible population and demands effective strategic planning and control.