A model that predicts levels of coronavirus (CoV) respiratory/fecal-oral transmission potentials based on the outer shell hardness has been built using neural network (artificial intelligence, AI) analysis of the percentage of disorder (PID) in the nucleocapsid, N, and membrane, M, proteins of the inner and outer viral shells, respectively. Based mainly on the PID of N, SARS-CoV-2 is categorized as having intermediate levels of both respiratory and fecal oral transmission potential. Related to this, other studies have found strong positive correlations between virulence and inner shell disorder among numerous viruses, including Nipah, Ebola, and Dengue viruses. There is some evidence that this is also true for SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which have N PIDs of 48% and 50%, and are characterized by case-fatality rates of 7.1% and 10.9%, respectively. The link between levels of respiratory transmission and virulence lies in viral load of body fluids and organ respectively. A virus can be infectious via respiratory modes only if the viral loads in saliva and mucus exceed certain minima. Likewise, a person may die, if the viral load is too high especially in viral organs. Inner shell proteins of viruses play important roles in the replication of viruses, and structural disorder enhances these roles by providing greater efficiency in protein-protein/DNA/RNA/lipid binding. This paper outlines a novel strategy in attenuating viruses involving comparison of disorder patterns of inner shells of related viruses to identify residues and regions that could be ideal for mutation. The M protein of SARS-CoV-2 has one of the lowest M PID values (6%) in its family, and therefore this virus has one of the hardest outer shells, which makes it resistant to antimicrobial enzymes in body fluid. While this is likely responsible for its contagiousness, the risks of creating an attenuated virus with a more disordered M are discussed.

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Subject: Computer Science and Mathematics - Computer Science

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