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Role of Fluctuations in COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence after the Lockdown

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Submitted:

14 June 2020

Posted:

16 June 2020

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Abstract
Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours.
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Subject: Physical Sciences  -   Mathematical Physics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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