The dynamic increase in non-cash transactions is a global trend in payments. In rich countries, cashless transactions have been dynamically replacing cash. The fact that non-cash transactions are pro-ecological is worth noting. This means that it is conducive to sustainable development of a country's economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the process of changes in non-cash payments in Poland, against the background of payment card use for ATM cash withdrawals. The tool used to analyze the potential process of cash transaction erosion caused by non-cash payments is a two-equation econometric model with feedback. For this purpose, statistical data, obtained from the National Bank of Poland was used. Accordingly, clarification is expected regarding the question of whether the Polish payment system is heading towards a dominance of cashless transactions or not. The reaction, in the form of changes in the value of non-cash payment card transactions in Poland, affected by the increase in the wealth of citizens, measured by an increase in the average pay, was examined. The modeling results were used to estimate forecasts of the share of non-cash transactions in the total value of market transactions and of the share of ATM cash withdrawals in the total value of transactions.