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Asymmetric Dependence between Oil Prices and Maritime Freight Rates: A Time-Varying Copula Approach

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Submitted:

14 November 2020

Posted:

16 November 2020

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Abstract
Changes in crude oil price affect the shipping freight market in three different channels. This study explores the dependence structure between oil prices and maritime freight rates to identify the strongest channel. Therefore, it investigates the relationship between oil prices and three major maritime freight rates; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). We employ the decomposition method, not studied in the existing literature. The copula approach identifies the time-varying effects and asymmetry in the tail dependence structure between oil prices and freight rates. The main results of this analysis are as follows. The decomposed components display different conditional dependence patterns, and asymmetry is revealed in the upper and lower tail dependence. In the long run, we find more dependence in extreme periods like the financial crises. In short-run fluctuations, we find the dependence increases in an economic boom. The implications of the results suggest that dependence can vary over time and may change depending on extreme events, implying that the complementary strategies of the long run and short run should be different.
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Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

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