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Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet Lymphocyte Ratio as a Predictor of Mortality in Severe COVID 19 Cases

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This version is not peer-reviewed

Submitted:

27 November 2022

Posted:

05 December 2022

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Abstract
With covid infection having a periodic occurrence and each wave affecting millions of people, there is an urgent need for healthcare providers to develop readily available biological markers to predict the severity and mortality of COVID-19 infection at an early stage of the disease to predict the most optimal management. The Neutrophil – lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) and Platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), are novel inflammatory markers suggested to predict the severity of illness in COVID -19 patients. We evaluated a retrospective cohort of 224 patients with covid 19 illnesses from August 2020 to October 2020. We categorized the patients into 'mild' and 'moderate to severe as per the severity of their illnesses. The optimal cut-off values of the continuous NLR, PLR, and Age were calculated by applying the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were calculated from ROC analysis. The results showed that Age, Hb, and NLR are significant predictors of the severity of illness. So we quantified the predictive contribution of those variables by its Z- score and showed that NLR is the strongest predictor followed by Age.ROC curve analysis revealed NLR to be an excellent predictor of disease severity (sensitivity 88.30% and specificity 82.60%) at a cut-off of > 4.24. A cut-off of 165.63 was obtained for PLR, which showed good predictive value for the severity of illness. A NLR > 6 was used as a predictor for mortality due to covid illness with good sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion: NLR and PLR can be used as prognostic markers to identify the severity of covid illness and the probability of mortality in the future in low-resource settings. Given its low cost, easily available, accessible, and reproducible data, it can be used as a useful marker to assist the physician in early referral and treatment of covid 19 infected patients.
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Subject: Medicine and Pharmacology  -   Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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