1. Introduction
Remote sensing of the ocean is now routinely performed by using instruments deployed on satellite platforms [
1,
2] to measure the radiance emerging at the top of the atmosphere and then apply an atmospheric correction (AC) algorithm [
3] to remove all but the water-leaving radiance component [
4] or the closely related remote sensing reflectance (
). From the
determined in the AC step various ocean color products can be inferred, such as chlorophyll-a concentration [
5], suspended particle matter [
6], turbidity, and phytoplankton abundance [
7]. Water quality is crucial to life in nearby regions [
8,
9] so it is of the utmost importance that measurement data with low bias and low uncertainty can be obtained. The uncertainty associated with a measurement characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the property being measured [
10]. In this paper the uncertainty associated with a measurement will be the standard deviation.
Several AC algorithms have have been developed to estimate the water-leaving radiance and achieved reasonable results in open ocean areas where the water-leaving radiances at near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths are negligible. Significant issues remain however; in coastal waters, which are not black in the NIR, negative water-leaving radiances are frequently produced by traditional AC algorithms [
11,
12]. In addition, aerosols in coastal areas often dramatically differ from those encountered over the open ocean, so any realistic AC approach should take into account the diversity of atmospheric and oceanic conditions encountered in such complex environments. Turbid waters, whitecaps, and sunglint can also lead to unreliable results. Various attempts to improve AC algorithms have been proposed, such as (i) using a turbid water flag to switch between correction algorithms depending on the region [
13], (ii) changing the bio-optical model in an iterative manner [
14], (iii) determining atmosphere-ocean properties simultaneously [
15], (iv) employing a multi-band approach [
16], (v) incorporating hyperspectral data [
17], (vi) optimizing for sunglint through the use of a polynomial function [
18], and (vii) using a coupled ocean/atmosphere inversion scheme based on neural networks [
19]. AC algorithms that produce the highest quality results often use several of these improvements in conjunction to form a more complete model of the ocean and atmosphere.
Traditional AC approaches typically do not provide uncertainty estimates, which should be included, however, to gain confidence in retrieved results. Recently, some studies have discussed uncertainty issues based on optimal estimation (Bayesian inversion) [
20,
21]. Algorithms based on neural networks such as C2RCC [
22] and SWARM [
23] provide uncertainties based on a comparison of radiative transfer model simulations and IOP inversions of the training datasets. These uncertainties reflect the difference between estimated ocean color retrievals and training simulations. Another approach is to use an ensemble of neural networks [
24] with differing initializations to perform spectral inversion. These approaches for quantifying retrieval uncertainty rely heavily on the capability of algorithms to produce good matchups between simulations and training data, as poor matchups will lead to larger uncertainties. In two recent papers [
25,
26], the authors discuss steps to quantify pixel-level uncertainties using a derivative approach to propagate uncertainties through the
retrieval process, primarily focusing on uncertainties arising from atmospheric correction. This approach allows one to account for uncertainties from a wide range of sources, but in practice not all source uncertainty information is available and several estimates and assumptions about the system need to be made.
The Ocean Color - Simultaneous Marine and Aerosol Retrieval Tool (OC-SMART) approach represents a new paradigm that utilizes scientific machine learning (SciML) in conjunction with comprehensive radiative transfer computations of the coupled atmosphere-water system to perform the AC step and retrieve water products from the resulting
estimates [
12]. The OC-SMART data processing platform employs a robust radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere-water system, AccuRT [
27], that accounts for a large variety of atmospheric and oceanic conditions likely to be encountered in nature including complex coastal environments. The OC-SMART approach has completely resolved the negative water-leaving radiance problem, and is used to retrieve aerosol optical depths and remote sensing reflectances (
) as a function of wavelength on a pixel by pixel basis. These
estimates are then used to infer inherent optical properties (IOPs) including absorption coefficients due to phytoplankton, detritus, and Gelbstoff, and backscattering coefficients due to particulates. However, these retrieved IOPs do not contain uncertainty estimates at present. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we focus on how to quantify uncertainties in retrieval parameters produced by OC-SMART. Since the accuracy of the remote sensing reflectance
is critical to obtain high quality water IOPs, our main target in this paper is to determine
uncertainties associated with errors in measurements and
a priori information. We chose to focus on a Bayesian inversion approach because of its ability to estimate uncertainties on a pixel by pixel basis and its flexibility to being updated if and when new
a priori and/or measurement error information becomes available.
Section 2 presents an overview of OC-SMART in regards to its methods, advantages compared to previous approaches such as C2RCC and SWARM, and limitations.
Section 3 presents the methodology that allows us to quantify uncertainties, starting with an introduction to Bayesian inversion (
Section 3.1) and continuing to discuss the key elements involved in the uncertainty estimation including a convergence check and computation of the Jacobian (
Section 3.1), measurement errors (
Section 3.2),
a priori determination (
Section 3.3), and experimental setup (
Section 3.5). Application of our methodology to estimate uncertainties associated with
is provided in
Section 4 for various regions and several sensors.
Section 5 contains discussion of results, conclusions, and future goals.
5. Conclusions and Perspectives
We have successfully implemented a method based on Bayes’ theorem to estimate uncertainties associated with OC-SMART remote sensing reflectance () retrievals. The OC-SMART platform uses a multi-layer neural network to solve the inverse problem, which saves significant calculation time when compared to typical Bayesian (optimal estimation) approaches. This methodology was applied to MODIS, OLCI, and VIIRS sensor data in various optically complex regions and retrievals with corresponding uncertainties were presented and discussed for these locations. The uncertainty estimates were dominated by the a priori term, leading to a strong connection between large uncertainties and large and APE values.
This framework for uncertainty estimation could be expanded to include other OC-SMART retrievals such as aerosol optical depth, chlorophyll concentration, absorption coefficients, and backscattering coefficients. The inclusion of uncertainty estimates for aerosol optical depths in particular would involve only minor changes to the methods described in this paper, namely adjustments to the APE values in the
a priori term. For other retrieval parameters, such as chlorophyll concentrations and water IOPs new considerations will have to made for determining measurement errors and
a priori, as well as calculations of the Jacobian. MODIS, OLCI, and VIIRS sensor data were used in this paper, but the calculations of uncertainties could also be performed for any sensor that OC-SMART is compatible with such as those mentioned in
Section 2.
Improvements could be made to our estimations by obtaining better information on the a priori. In our case, such improvement would imply a better match-up of MLNN retrievals to synthetic data which could be achieved by implementing additional IOP data to the training dataset of the neural network. We could also improve estimations if uncertainties associated with satellite radiance measurements were available. Such information would allow us to apply measurement error terms more accurately than assuming one percent Gaussian noise for all bands. Future work would include an expansion of our approach to encompass all applicable OC-SMART retrievals and to integrate uncertainty estimation into the currently available Python OC-SMART package and plugins.