1. Introduction
In the process of petroleum exploration and development, accurate prediction of formation pressure has always been an extremely important aspect. In the petroleum industry, there are many methods used to predict formation pressure, which can be broadly divided into two categories: pre-drilling prediction based on seismic exploration data and post-drilling detection using well logging data.
Currently, in China, the seismic layer velocity obtained from seismic exploration and the logging data obtained after drilling are commonly used as the basis for establishing a system that can quickly understand the geological environment at the drilling site [
1]. However, research on how to predict formation pressure more accurately has been conducted both domestically and internationally. In terms of well logging, Zhao, et al. [
2] improved the prediction accuracy by using cluster analysis to separate shale from other lithologies and obtain normal trend line velocities. Xie, et al. [
3] effectively calculated formation pore pressure by combining dipole sonic and other conventional well logging data, achieving good application results. Li, et al. [
4] found that the Dc index method and the time difference of sonic waves are suitable for calculating formation pressure in Block A of the Bohai Sea, with a maximum error of 5%, which meets engineering requirements and is of practical significance for on-site drilling operations. Fan, et al. [
5] proposed and modified a formation pressure prediction model based on the Eaton method, taking into account the geological influences of the actual area. They established three pressure profiles for the formations in that area, providing important support for subsequent drilling. In terms of seismic exploration, pre-drilling pressure prediction mainly involves calculating formation pore pressure using seismic layer velocity data. Wang, et al. [
6] introduced the effective stress principle in porous media to develop a new method for calculating pore fluid pressure in unconventional reservoirs, achieving good application results. Zhang, et al. [
7] used the DIX formula to obtain layer velocities based on velocity spectrum data and predicted formation pressure using seismic layer velocities. Yang, et al. [
8] combined seismic and well logging data to establish pressure prediction profiles for deep formations and conducted in-depth analysis of the drilling geological conditions in the study area. Ma [
9] used an improved Fillippone method to predict formation pressure ahead of the drill bit, and the results showed that the method is scientifically effective and meets the requirements of actual field applications. Qian, et al. [
10] applied the equivalent medium theory to determine the upper and lower limits of rock velocities in the Fillippone formula, obtaining more reasonable estimation results. So far, the methods for predicting formation pressure based on seismic data can be broadly classified into two categories. One category relies on seismic velocity spectrum data and uses the Fillippone formula and its modified versions to predict formation pressure. The advantage is the ability to establish the spatial distribution of formation pressure in the underground three-dimensional space. However, this method relies on seismic layer velocities, which are often difficult to obtain accurately. Moreover, when predicting formation pressure, it requires the establishment of an empirical equation between velocity and pressure, resulting in insufficient prediction accuracy of formation pressure in the entire three-dimensional space. The other category involves predicting formation pressure using seismic data under well constraints, including the equivalent depth method and the Eaton formula [
11]. The advantage of using sonic time difference to predict formation pressure at the well is its high accuracy. However, this method relies on normal compaction trend line, and the relationship between compaction trend line and well spatial positions varies, leading to a decrease in the accuracy of predicting formation pressure in spatial terms.
In recent years, the introduction of geostatistical stochastic simulation methods has provided effective tools for reservoir prediction. In particular, the Collocated cokriging has strong advantages in integrating well logging information and effectively utilizing precise well location data. Gao [
12] used three different kriging methods to interpolate the sandstone formation in Yuncheng City. The fitting effect of the exponential model in the variogram fitting was the best, and the results showed that the ordinary kriging method could more accurately reflect the spatial distribution of sandstone formation elevation in Yuncheng City. Ma, et al. [
13] combined functional data analysis and kriging interpolation techniques to improve the accuracy and reliability of oil and gas well productivity prediction. Li et al. [
14] addressed the “banding effect” that occurs during kriging interpolation by using distance constraint to correct the weights obtained from kriging estimation, making the kriging interpolation method more stable. However, whether it is simple kriging or ordinary kriging, the interpolation effect decreases rapidly when the data points are sparse, and the interpolated results do not meet expectations. Cokriging technology has wider applications. Under the constraint of secondary data that has a certain correlation with the primary data, it conducts collaborative simulation on a small amount of sparse and irregularly distributed primary data, and the simulation results are similar to the spatial distribution pattern of the secondary data. Wang, et al. [
15] used Cokriging interpolation to predict the spatial distribution trend of low-pressure pipeline networks in suburban and rural areas. The results showed that the prediction model performed well, with average error and root mean square error within the acceptable range. Du, et al. [
16] used Cokriging method to predict coal seam thickness, and the results showed that the method was effective, with small errors and improved accuracy. Geng, et al. [
17] applied Cokriging method to three-dimensional inversion of gravity gradient tensor data, reducing the ambiguity of inversion and improving the resolution of inversion results. Yu, et al. [
18] proposed a cokriging porosity prediction method under facies control based on Cokriging. Through comparative analysis, the estimated results had smaller errors and the predicted results were more realistic. However, cokriging is relatively complex in computation, with a large amount of calculation, and the actual values of primary data at the same location cannot be consistent, which limits the development environment of cokriging. Collocated cokriging technique simplifies the complexity of cokriging in computation and matches well with the known data points and actual parameters. Chen, et al. [
19] integrated seismic, well logging, geological, and other information to predict the distribution and variation of channel sand bodies using collocated cokriging, achieving significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to traditional methods. Wang, et al. [
20] improved the prediction accuracy of seismic inversion by combining collocated cokriging method to effectively utilize information from horizontal sections. Zhang, et al. [
21] applied sequential Gaussian collocated cokriging method to predict reservoirs by incorporating other seismic parameter data, demonstrating high prediction accuracy and effective reduction of drilling risks. Niu, et al. [
22] estimated the variogram function by filtering the expected values of co-variates using primary variable observations, and proposed and derived a new collocated cokriging method.
Considering the above research status, the Eaton formula method is widely used and has high accuracy. However, its predictive accuracy is not high in entire spatial domain. Geostatistical stochastic simulation methods, including the collocated cokriging method, serve as effective tools to improve accuracy by integrating well logging information in spatial analysis. Combining the Eaton formula method with the isochronous co-simulation kriging method is expected to enhance the accuracy of formation pressure prediction in the plane. Numerical simulations of seismic P-wave and S-wave velocities are conducted to analyze the experimental variogram of P-wave velocity and fit it using a spherical model. Anisotropy of the formation is considered, and elliptical anisotropic model is established to make the simulation results better match the actual formation. By comparing with simple kriging and cokriging methods, the accuracy of the collocated cokriging method is validated. The effects of range, azimuth, and number of reference points on the simulation results are analyzed, and appropriate parameters are selected. Finally, the Eaton formula method combined with the collocated cokriging method is applied to predict formation pressure in the ultra-deep rock formations of the Junggar Basin.
2. Principle and Process of Formation Pressure Prediction Based on Collocated Cokriging
2.1. Principle of Formation Pressure Prediction
The Eaton method predicts formation pressure by establishing a normal compaction trend line. The calculation formula is as follows:
In the above, represents formation pressure; represents overburden pressure; represents normal hydrostatic pressure; represents actual formation velocity, which is obtained from sonic log data or stacking velocity; represents the normal trend line velocity, mainly obtained by fitting the velocity of mudstone; represents the Eaton index, which is a coefficient related to the formation. The value of the Eaton index varies for different geological periods and regions.
In the formula,
hydrostatic pressure increases with the increase of depth; at the same depth, its value increases with the increase in formation water density:
In the formula,
overburden pressure is an important factor in generating underground pressure. Its driving force is mainly a combination of sedimentary and compaction effects of the formation. This pressure is a fundamental parameter in the process of predicting formation pressure. In the detection of formation pressure, its value is determined first.
In the formula, represents the gradient of overburden pressure at a certain depth; represents seawater density; represents seawater depth; represents the average density of the upper density-free logging formation section; represents the thickness of the upper density-free logging formation section; represents density scatter data at a certain depth; represents depth interval. The calculation of overburden pressure involves multiple data and is a tedious process.
2.2. Cokriging Principle
When there are two or more characteristic parameters in the interpolation area, and there is a significant correlation between the main variable and covariates to be interpolated within that area, Co-Kriging method can be used. This method belongs to multivariate geostatistics and involves analyzing multiple parameters in the study area, studying the linear and nonlinear relationships between these parameters, and understanding the spatial differences of different parameters to achieve a certain level of precision in estimating the main variable.
The Cokriging estimation is formulated as follows:
In the equation, represents the estimated value at the estimation point ; represents the actual attribute value of the main variable at point ; represents the actual attribute value of the covariate at point ; and are the weight coefficients corresponding to the main variable and covariate, respectively.
The Co-Kriging estimation is defined as a linear combination of available samples. Similar to ordinary Kriging, Co-Kriging estimation requires unbiasedness and minimum error variance.
By incorporating the minimum variance condition with weight constraints, each considered random variable introduces Lagrange multipliers during the minimization process. By taking partial derivatives of each weight
,
, and
and setting the results to zero, the minimum variance can be determined. After expanding and processing the variance, derivative calculations yield the Cokriging equations:
In the equations, represents the auto-covariance of the main variable; represents the auto-covariance of the covariate; represents the cross-covariance between the main variable and covariate. and are Lagrange factors.
The covariance function can be obtained from the variogram function, but calculating the cross-covariance or cross-variogram requires a significant amount of computation and involves complex derivation, which severely reduces the interpolation efficiency of Co-Kriging. Even if the cross-variogram function is obtained, solving the equations can lead to a singular, resulting in situations where the estimation point has no solution.
2.3. Collocated Cokriging Principle
Collocated cokriging is a simplified form of Cokriging that greatly reduces the computational burden on the equation system. In Cokriging, a considerable number of covariates need to be selected for calculation. However, collocated cokriging only requires the covariates at the same positions as the estimation point. The covariates around the estimation point will be masked by the covariance in the same position. This also requires that there are corresponding covariates for each estimation location.
In collocated cokriging, only three functions are needed: the auto-covariance function of the main variable, the cross-covariance function between the main variable and covariates, and the latter can be derived from the Markov model, significantly improving the computational speed of collocated cokriging.
The estimation value in collocated cokriging is given by the equation:
In the equation, represents the estimated value at the estimation point , and represents the actual attribute value of the main variable at point . Since there is only one secondary data used for calculation, the weight for the secondary data has only one value.
Then, by incorporating the condition of unbiasedness and minimum error variance:
A series of mathematical operations lead to the collocated cokriging equation matrix:
2.4. Workflow of Collocated Cokriging Method for Prediction
The Eaton method is used to calculate the formation pressure at well locations. In collocated cokriging, the assumption is that the variogram function of the secondary variable is the same as that of the primary variable. Therefore, only fitting the secondary variable is required. A spherical model is used for fitting, and the parameters are obtained using the least squares method to determine the range. An elliptical model is established to improve the interpolation accuracy. The covariance and cross-covariance functions of the primary and secondary variables are calculated using the variogram function. A certain number of primary data points are selected around the estimation point, and their weights, along with the weights of the corresponding secondary data points, are obtained by solving the equation matrix for estimation.
Figure 1.
Collocated Cokriging Prediction Process Diagram.
Figure 1.
Collocated Cokriging Prediction Process Diagram.
4. Pressure Prediction of Actual Strata
The Eaton formula was originally established as an empirical relationship based on data from the Gulf of Mexico region and remains the most widely used method for predicting pore pressure in practical applications. This method establishes a normal compaction trend line based on consolidation theory, effective stress theory, and equilibrium theory. It predicts strata pressure by establishing a relationship between formation pressure and acoustic time difference.
In the ultra-deep rock formations of the Junggar Basin, the well points are distributed within the measured compressional wave velocity region, namely ca1, ca2, ca3, and ca4. The exponent N in the Eaton formula varies in different regions, and multiple trial calculations have shown that an N value of 5.0 is more suitable for the work area. The normal acoustic time difference is calculated using the fitted trend of normal acoustic time difference from wells ca1, ca2, ca3, and ca4. The formation pressures at the same depth calculated by the Eaton formula for these wells are 98.761 MPa, 99.372 MPa, 93.12 MPa, and 98.714 MPa, respectively.
Figure 9 shows the overburden pressure, hydrostatic pressure, and formation pressure at the same depth for well ca2 calculated using the Eaton formula.
In the actual calculation process, calculating the formation pressure for individual wells is cumbersome, and obtaining the normal compaction velocity is not straightforward. Analyzing the Eaton formula reveals that there is a certain relationship between formation pressure and measured velocity, and the calculated formation pressure from the Eaton formula and the measured compressional wave velocity exhibit a linear correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.8034. Therefore, collocated cokriging and ordinary cokriging are simultaneously used to predict formation pressure.
Analyzing
Figure 10 shows that, consistent with the results of simulation testing, using fewer primary data points for cokriging interpolation aligns more with the distribution trend of secondary data, but it fails to match the existing data at known point locations, resulting in the loss of existing data. On the other hand, collocated cokriging, while maintaining the existing data, assigns appropriate weights to surrounding data points, resulting in predicted results that better align with expectations. Compared to the Eaton formula for predicting formation pressure, which inevitably introduces errors in the process of obtaining normal compaction velocity, the collocated cokriging method predicts formation pressure using measured layer velocities that have a certain correlation with formation pressure, thereby avoiding the difficulty of obtaining normal compaction velocity.