1. The Tropics: a forest landscape restoration ‘hot spot’
In response to the loss and degradation of the world’s forests and soils, forest restoration is being scaled up rapidly for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration [
1,
2,
3,
4]. A total of 350 million hectares of forest are to be restored by 2030 according to pledges made through the Bonn Challenge alone; other initiatives are similarly ambitious [
5]. Tropical forests assume a central position in pledged restoration efforts, as the humid tropics have the greatest potential for tree growth and carbon sequestration [
6,
7]. Further, the dry tropics are amongst the most vulnerable regions worldwide in terms of vegetation loss, soil degradation, and the number of people living on degraded and deforested land [
3,
8,
9,
10,
11]. Looking ahead, major increases in tropical forest cover will be required to address the combined needs for restoring biodiversity, capturing carbon to mitigate global warming, increasing resilience to climatic change/variability, as well as supplying high-quality water to ever-growing urban populations [
12,
13,
14,
15,
16].
An adequate and reliable supply of clean freshwater is essential for domestic uses, food production, energy security, and provisioning of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and their biodiversity [
14,
16,
17,
18]. The major changes in forest cover proposed within the global framework of Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) [
5] will have important consequences for the integrity of flow of water through landscapes, affecting water availability at multiple scales [
19,
20,
21]. We call attention, however, to the discrepancy between the repeatedly expressed need for quantitative and objective information on the hydrological impacts of reforestation and FLR in the tropics [
19,
22,
23,
24] and pertinent findings that are summarised to date [
25,
26,
27,
28].
In this paper, we address this discrepancy by exploring the evidence and sketching out the scope for restoring hydrological functioning of degraded environments and improving water availability
via FLR in the tropics. We draw both from recent advances and older notable works, while keeping a ‘real-world’ perspective that recognises that most areas targeted for restoration have experienced some soil degradation that affects hillslope and catchment hydrological functioning [
29,
30,
31]. We further emphasise the importance of stream baseflow recovery as an important indicator of FLR success. Here, baseflow is the sustained flow of water in streams and rivers that is maintained by infiltrated precipitation between rainfall events, typically moving towards the stream
via various underground pathways [see
Table 1 for a definition of terms; 32]. Hydrological functioning refers to streamflow response to rainfall, including the timing and magnitude of seasonal baseflows as well as the flow peaks associated with distinct precipitation events [
33,
34].
2. Forests and streamflow: a seemingly settled debate
One long-established view of the hydrological role of forests is that their complex of trees, understorey vegetation, surface litter, roots and soil acts as a ‘sponge’ absorbing rainfall during wet periods and releasing the stored water subsequently during dry periods [
30,
35,
36]. Following forest removal, this ‘sponge effect’ tends to diminish or may be lost altogether, causing springs and streams in seasonally dry climates to desiccate in dry periods; meanwhile, flooding is typically exacerbated during periods with high rainfall because of increased surface runoff [
37,
38,
39,
40].
The ‘forest as sponge’ metaphor and related thinking came under serious scrutiny after Bosch & Hewlett [
41] summarised the changes in annual streamflow totals (“water yield”) associated with vegetation change (deforestation or afforestation) for 94 so-called “paired-catchment” studies conducted mostly under temperate climate conditions. Although the variation in results was deemed “extreme”, Bosch & Hewlett [
41] concluded that “no experiments in deliberately reducing [vegetation] cover caused reductions in [water] yield, nor have any deliberate increases in cover caused increases in yield”. In a companion review of the flood-mitigating capacity of forests, Hewlett [
42] concluded that an undisturbed forest cover generally moderated peak discharges and stormflow as the ‘sponge’ metaphor implied, although the effect decreased as the size of the rainfall event and catchment wetness level increased. Further, the influence of forest on the magnitude of the largest events (“floods”) was marginal [
42]. In short: the ‘forest sponge’ was seen to have limitations, breaking down for extreme rainfall events and very wet soils.
Hamilton & King [
43] were among the first to realise the implications of these findings for the tropics—tropical forest conversion in particular. Seeing that forest removal led to increased streamflow, they surmised that trees might be more appropriately labelled ‘pumps’, raising water from the soil profile and returning it back to the atmosphere. Further, they concluded from the fact that the flows associated with the largest storm events were not affected much by the presence or absence of forest cover: “Major floods occur due to too much precipitation falling in too short a time or over too long a time, beyond the capacity of the soil mantle to store it, or the stream channel to handle it”. In several provocative articles targeting the “four M’s of myth, misunderstanding, misinformation, and misinterpretation” regarding the hydrological role of tropical forests—including the “myth of the forest sponge”—Hamilton [
44,
45] called for “greater accuracy and realism”. In his footsteps, many subsequent 'hydrological myth-busters' highlighted the high water consumption of trees and forests and their inability to prevent extreme flooding [
23,
46,
47,
48,
49]. The value of a ‘good’ forest cover for maintaining other aspects of hydrological functioning and for providing high-quality water was largely neglected in these publications.
Both Hamilton & King [
43] and Hewlett [
42] did recognise that the impact of ‘deforestation’ on the hydrological functioning of a catchment could be significantly altered if widespread soil degradation were associated with forest clearance, either during (
e.g., through the use of heavy machinery) or after (
e.g,
via accelerated surface erosion or mass wasting). However, these pioneers were not aware of any experimental evidence supporting such intuitions. In the words of Hamilton [
44]: “Suggestions implying tropical reforestation or afforestation of non-forested lands, including extensive grasslands, will cause higher well levels, renewed spring flows, and increased low flows in streams are not supported by evidence from temperate zone research that indicates the reverse”. Likewise, although Hamilton & King [
43] and Bruijnzeel [
50] acknowledged various anecdotal reports of renewed springs and more reliable streamflow following tropical forestation, sound scientific data from the region were lacking at the time [
25,
51].
The initial conclusions of Bosch & Hewlett [
41] have been broadly echoed by successive reviews of the gradually expanding global literature on land-cover change effects on annual water yield, with the strongest relative changes in annual yields following the gain or loss of forest cover noted for sub-humid rainfall conditions [
52,
53,
54,
55,
56,
57,
58,
59,
60]. Similar conclusions about changes in annual water yield (
i.e. lower yields under forest), were reached for the much smaller humid tropical dataset [
22,
27,
28,
31,
61].
In view of the seemingly overwhelming evidence that ‘more forest implies less total streamflow (lower yield)’, evidence demonstrating improved hydrological functioning and water availability achieved through forestation in the tropics is generally considered exceptional [
27,
28,
31,
47]. However, based on new work, we now contend that the debate regarding forest cover and streamflow is still alive. The dominating view that forestation can only reduce streamflow and water availability, diminishes opportunities to restore the hydrological functioning of degraded landscapes and supply environmental and societal needs. Rather, our interpretation of a growing body of evidence indicates that the opportunities for FLR to improve hydrology and water availability can be large and important in specific geographical settings.
4. ‘Pumps’ and ‘sponges’: a paradigm of hydrological ‘trade-offs’
To frame our message, we return to the analogy that well-developed forest ecosystems function both as ‘pumps’
and ‘sponges’. This conceptualization implies that vegetation has a drying effect as it intercepts rainfall and takes up water from the soil, subsequently releasing moisture back to the atmosphere via transpiration (i.e., the ‘pump’ side of things). Meanwhile, the ‘sponge’ effect pertains to the underlying soil absorbing, retaining, and moderating the passage of water through the catchment. If rainfall exceeds the soil's infiltration capacity and ponding occurs, surface runoff is generated that contributes to stormflow. Infiltrating water can be stored in the soil or transferred underground to the groundwater reservoir or move towards the stream system through subsurface flow pathways at variable rates and depths (faster and shallower during rain). Baseflows, which are derived from deeper subsurface flows and groundwater, represent the equilibrium between water losses through ET, gains through infiltration, and the balance with storage [81;
Figure 1A].
As long as the soil’s infiltration capacity is more or less maintained, removing forest cover tends to increase baseflows at a level largely proportional to the changes in vegetation water use. This response occurs because the associated changes in stormflow are generally small under non-degraded conditions [
31,
82,
83]; and peak discharges for forested and non-forested lands typically converge as amounts of rainfall and soil wetness increase [
28,
42,
63]. However, where substantial surface degradation (
e.g., through loss of soil organic matter, increased soil compaction/consolidation or crusting) has occurred, stormflows and peak stream discharges can increase substantially [
62,
69,
70,
71,
84,
85,
86].
The extra surface runoff caused by reduced infiltration does not replenish soil moisture reserves or the groundwater that sustains baseflow, and is thus, effectively lost to the catchment ecosystem. In cases of greatly reduced soil infiltrability (
e.g., due to heavy crusting or compaction), losses
via surface runoff can lead to marked
reductions in groundwater recharge and dry-season baseflow, compared with the prior forested situation, despite the post-forest vegetation using less water (
Figure 1B). In other words, the ‘sponge’ effect is lost [
25,
29,
30,
31,
73,
87].
Figure 1.
Partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, (near-)surface runoff, and groundwater recharge under (A) mature forest, (B) degraded land, and (C) natural regrowth to illustrate the ‘infiltration – evapotranspiration trade-off’ mechanism governing groundwater recharge and dry-season flows [adapted from 88]. Green arrows: evapotranspiration; brown arrows: surface runoff; light blue arrows: subsurface stormflow; dark blue arrows: groundwater recharge. Arrow sizes indicate relative magnitude of the respective fluxes for the three land covers.
Figure 1.
Partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, (near-)surface runoff, and groundwater recharge under (A) mature forest, (B) degraded land, and (C) natural regrowth to illustrate the ‘infiltration – evapotranspiration trade-off’ mechanism governing groundwater recharge and dry-season flows [adapted from 88]. Green arrows: evapotranspiration; brown arrows: surface runoff; light blue arrows: subsurface stormflow; dark blue arrows: groundwater recharge. Arrow sizes indicate relative magnitude of the respective fluxes for the three land covers.
A recent spatially distributed hydrological modelling study by Peña-Arancibia et al. [
81] assessed the ‘trade-off’ between changes in the ‘pump’ (ET) and ‘sponge’ (infiltration) functions after forest conversion to pasture across the tropics, both with and without imposed soil degradation (
i.e., infiltration reduced by 50%). Overall, simply replacing forests by non-degraded pasture increased annual water yield by 18% because of the lower water use of the grass (reduced pumping). The greatest relative increases were found in water-limited regions; smaller changes were derived for the rainy humid equatorial regions where higher cloudiness limits ET. Annual water yields rose to 26% when forest conversion was associated with soil degradation, reflecting increases in surface runoff due to reduced infiltration. However, for nearly one-fifth of all grid cells (19%), a
reduction in stream baseflow was inferred during one or more of the driest months in the soil degradation scenario, despite the lower water use of the pasture. In short, the change in infiltration had a greater effect on baseflows than did the change in ET (
i.e. the ‘trade-off’ between the two was negative;
cf. Figure 1B) [
81]. It is worth noting that many of the areas for which decreases in dry-season flows were predicted coincide with areas targeted by the Atlas of Forest and Landscape Restoration Opportunities [
89]. Note also that any potentially negative changes in precipitation following widespread forest conversion [
90] were not included in the modelling.
In general, major improvements in soil infiltration capacity following the re-establishment of a good vegetation cover on degraded soils have been observed [
74,
91,
92,
93]. Vegetation maturation is also associated with the redevelopment of biologically mediated soil macropores, root channels, and animal burrows – some of which are typically lost during repeated slash-and-burn cycles, annual cropping, and grazing [
92,
94,
95,
96]. Connected networks of macropores act as ‘preferential pathways’ guiding infiltrating rainwater (typically within a day) through the root zone once a critical soil moisture storage threshold value is exceeded, usually during times of ample rainfall [
97]. This mechanism promotes the deep subsurface flows and groundwater recharge that contribute to baseflow [
30,
68,
98].
Improved macropore flow can also explain why stormflow responses of reforested headwater catchments can be reduced even under extreme rainfalls compared with nearby areas with greater degradation, as shown in various locations such as Panamá, the Philippines, Mediterranean SE France, and South Korea [
62,
99,
100,
101]. Indeed, the largest decreases in storm runoff – and therefore the largest gains in infiltrated rainfall – have been observed after foresting heavily degraded areas under intense rainfall [
62,
100,
101,
102]. In such cases, increased macropore flow combines with other processes resulting from forestation, notably increased water storage potential in the soil due to pre-storm water use by the vegetation [
99,
100].
Given such trade-offs, it is premature to conclude that the ‘localized’ flood-moderating effect of reforesting degraded headwaters is limited to small or intermediate rainfall events only, as suggested by Marshall et al. [
23] and others investigating catchments with limited soil degradation [
19,
63]. However, it would be equally premature to extend such findings uncritically to much larger scales (
e.g., large river basins) and expect upland forest restoration to eliminate all downstream flooding [
103]. Large-scale flooding typically results from extensive and persistent rainfall fields of long duration and/or high intensity, often occurring when soils have been wetted up by previous rains [
42,
63,
104,
105]. Flood risk relates to the interplay of a host of additional factors as well, including degree of urbanization and hard surfaces, floodplain occupancy, wetland conversion, presence of storage reservoirs and other infrastructural works (
e.g., dikes and embankments), etc. [
103,
106,
107,
108,
109].
6. Increased tree cover, moisture recycling, and precipitation
A potentially important positive feedback of FLR is that higher ET associated with maturing trees may contribute to increased rain at downwind locations
via moisture recycling and convergence. Considerable advances have been made in the last decade in understanding the global water cycle and the role of trees and forests in this regard [
80,
126,
170,
171,
172,
173,
174]. Large-scale studies that track air flows, atmospheric moisture and rainfall show that air passing over large tracts of forest captures more water and produces more rain downwind than does air that passes over sparse vegetation [
175]. For example, the high year-round ET from the largely forested Congo River Basin provides >30% of the precipitation falling over large adjacent river basins to the north (
e.g., Lake Chad) and south (
e.g., Zambezi) [
176]. Meanwhile, up to 40% of rainfall in East Africa is estimated to derive from moisture evaporated from large-scale irrigated agriculture in Asia [
177]. Likewise, a pan-tropical assessment of the impacts of forest loss between 2003 and 2017 on precipitation demonstrated clear reductions in observed precipitation at scales >50 km, with the greatest declines found at a scale of 200 km, which was the largest scale considered [
90].
Recent attention has also been focused on tree cover loss and its contribution to ‘tipping points’, where local climates may reach a threshold and become unable to sustain the existing moisture regime [
178,
179]. Drought-prone areas are also susceptible to reinforcing feedbacks, where up-wind drought conditions can lead to significant reductions in precipitation [
180].
A grand vision for forest restoration aims to reverse these processes, cooling and stabilising the climate while restoring reliable moisture supplies to regions currently facing threats or diminished water availability [
181,
182,
183,
184]. Makarieva et al. [
79] and Sheil [
183] emphasise the potential benefits of increased tree cover, in general, including strategically placed forestations, possibly spanning across borders, to enhance rainfall and water availability downwind through intensified moisture convergence [
184,
185]. Similarly, promoting the infiltration of rainfall through soil conservation measures in seasonally dry areas can elevate soil moisture during the rainy and immediate post-monsoon periods [
134,
165,
167]. This, in turn, has a favourable impact on air temperatures (reduced) and seasonal precipitation [
186,
187,
188,
189].
Given the bi-directional and highly non-linear nature of the underlying relationships, large-scale forestation may affect precipitation and water availability positively through moisture convergence once atmospheric moisture contents are high enough [
79,
190,
191]. There is a need to subject these dependencies to critical evaluation, however. Predictions of the magnitude of the effects of land cover (change) on precipitation vary markedly depending on methodological choices [
189]. Further, an unresolved aspect concerns the fraction of the rainfall generated by the large-scale recycling of evaporated moisture that is sufficiently intense to contribute to deep drainage and groundwater recharge (
i.e., affecting baseflows). If most of the rain falls at relatively low intensities, much may then be intercepted, evaporated, and/or used by the vegetation during transpiration instead of contributing to groundwater recharge and baseflow [
96,
98,
139]. In the case of the Loess Plateau of China, total precipitation resulting from regional atmospheric moisture convergence increased in some areas following large-scale vegetation restoration, but the amounts of ‘intense’ precipitation (defined locally as >12 mm d
-1) decreased between 2000 and 2015 [
192].
Although model predictions of the magnitude of increases in precipitation following large-scale forestation vary depending on model choice and parameterization [
189], relatively strong effects are invariably predicted for montane humid tropical locations [
20,
21,
193]. Globally, the fraction of evaporated moisture that precipitates again ‘locally’ (
i.e., at a distance <50 km from its source) is estimated at <2%; however, local ‘moisture recycling ratios’ may reach values of 5–7% in tropical mountain areas [
80]. Such model predictions are supported by observed increases in the height of the local cloud base following removal of forest in adjacent upwind humid tropical lowlands [
194] and by upward / downward movement of the local cloud base reflecting defoliation / regrowth of leaves after forests have been impacted by hurricanes [
195].
At these smaller scales, occult contributions via cloud water (fog) capture by (mostly taller) vegetation can be a crucial additional source of moisture in forests within coastal or montane cloud belts [
76]. Such extra inputs assume particular importance in semi-arid regions [
75,
196,
197] where fog has been shown to markedly increase groundwater recharge [
198,
199], but occult contributions can be substantial under wet conditions as well [
76,
77,
200]. Occult inputs have also been reported to aid tree establishment under conditions where rainfall alone is not sufficient [
132,
201,
202]. Nearly two-thirds of all montane tropical forests experience significant incidence of fog and low cloud [
203]. Knowledge of ‘hot spots’ with high fog interception in the tropics may be used in conjunction with knowledge of local moisture recycling patterns to identify suitable areas for enhancing cloud water capture through up-wind FLR projects [
76,
80,
204].
7. RESEARCH NEEDS
Given the extent of tropical forest loss/degradation worldwide, we call for greater involvement of hydrologists and atmospheric scientists in the development and assessment of FLR initiatives [Dib et al., 2023]. There are also opportunities for the involvement of ‘citizen scientists’ to open avenues for data collection that were previously unavailable [
205]. More monitoring of the changes in streamflow, vegetation water use, and the soil physical characteristics governing infiltration, plus changes in rainfall (if any) associated with FLR is needed to further improve our understanding of the potential hydrological impacts of forestation initiatives, and to separate these impacts from those of other changes taking place (such as reservoir construction and operation, urbanization, global warming).
Our capacity to measure, monitor, and model environmental change
in situ is greater than ever nowadays, including the remote sensing of soil moisture [
206] and vegetation water use [
207,
208]. Further, sophisticated models and observations allow for more accurate descriptions of seasonal changes in dominant atmospheric moisture transport pathways and precipitation source areas, while stable water isotope measurements of precipitation allow tracing of water sources (terrestrial
versus oceanic) and the dominant rainfall generating mechanism (convective
versus orographic) [
209,
210,
211,
212]. However, advances are still needed to elucidate the effect of atmospheric moisture convergence on groundwater recharge and baseflows (as opposed to amounts of total streamflow, which are typically modelled). Doing so will require including rainfall partitioning at the soil surface (into surface runoff and infiltration) in such simulation models. Thus far, model applications have assumed that all precipitation arriving at the soil surface is infiltrating [
20,
172,
185].
8. CONCLUSION
Although a recent ”landmark theme issue” comprised of 20 papers in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 378 addressed “knowledge gaps that need closing to advance restoration practice” [
23], it did not include a dedicated article on the linkage between forest landscape restoration and hydrology (which was their knowledge gap no. 10). Addressing that omission, we argue herein that healthy soils and a reliable supply of high-quality water are crucial for human and ecological well-being, making them essential considerations for any FLR project. This belief is supported by recent field and modelling studies which demonstrate that forest landscape restoration has the potential to restore the hydrological functioning of degraded tropical catchments disrupted by forest loss and disturbance. However, political will and a host of socio-economic factors aside [
5], the realization of this potential also depends on various physical factors, including local climate (such as seasonality and rainfall patterns), soil conditions (degree of surface degradation and soil depth), and the choice of vegetation. The timing and extent of hydrological recovery also rely on the initial level of soil and vegetation disturbance and how the emerging vegetation affects the partitioning of precipitation into evaporative losses, surface runoff, and subsurface flow components.
We agree with Marshall et al [
23] that “there has never been a more important time to deliver the scientific foundations for effective and long-lasting impacts of forest restoration that meets the needs and priorities of different stakeholders”, particularly in the tropics. The evidence we present in this paper challenges the often-repeated mantra that 'more forest implies less water' by highlighting circumstances where more positive improvements in streamflow dynamics have been brought about
via forestation and FLR. Regarding the goals of FLR, we advocate for prioritising the recovery of baseflow, mainly achieved through improving soil infiltration, rather than focusing solely on increasing annual water yields. Restoring this 'high-quality' streamflow component also aligns with the need to address other essential ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity, habitat preservation, soil erosion prevention, and (non-reservoir-associated) human water uses.
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